How much are you earning per annum?

[lazyplane]

I tend to agree with you. My own point about this property discussion is that many Singaporeans are flush with a +ve netgain over the years in this front and seen too many poor performance eg equities . It is hard to ignore the property investment debate if you intend to stay here.

Originally Posted by Unregistered

I have refrained from contributing because this topic of whether to invest in/ buy private property has been discussed ad nauseum (you can see many such posts in this forum) and I saw this post as a troll post seeking to stir up emotion all over again.

On the one side you will get nay sayers: people who only see the worst case, and / or reckless people who had been badly burnt before during property down cycles. On the other side, you have people who are optimists, people who saw their fortunes grew multifold because property investment and not least property agents desperate to drum up transactions.

In my earlier sharing / argument (many many pages ago) on this topic, I pointed out one key factor in the decision making process is the stability of your job and thus the security of that wage coming in, in good times and bad. If you have a secure job like in the civil service, and still relatively young (meaning salary increases going forward), you could absorb more economic shock than the next guy who does not have a secure job.

The other point I highlighted was the property landscape then (when the rich uncles made their bundle) and now is not the same. Having said this, each scenario presents it's own opportunities and risks. Now with the government tightly controlling the market, the risk of a nasty downturn is curtailed! They just have to ease the CM when the market turns. Remember that there are many investors outside of Singapore looking for good properties. Even internally there are many cash rich singaporeans staying on the side because of the CM, and many have turned to invest overseas instead.

Then there is the intangibles of condo living - privacy, facilities and for some here, status. Although I stayed in private properties all my working life, I only moved into condo living 10 years ago. It has been a very wonderful 10 years. I can see why condo is one of the Cs in the list of desired 5Cs.

To sum up, forummers will offer their views / advise based on their specific set of circumstances. There is no right or wrong. You have to be clear of your circumstance.

Thanks, looks like several like minded here which is great to know.

I'm no guru but I will share on what I believe (that means 70% gut feel) on market timing, this of course is based on no major worldwide economic correction/war etc. I believe 2017 - 2018 is the period I suspect we would hit a bigger correction. Say 20 -30%? Primarily because US fed gave an indication that it will increase interest rates around that period which will mean an increase in rates here. Not need to go into details but it would be huge considering how overleverage some people are, Also the election year is 2016, assuming pap win I don't think they would be eager to rush in seeing that next election is a long way off. Not to mention we have an oversupply of properties coming in and a decline in the rental sector. I suppose that's why the government advocates the population increase to soak up the excess, hence I believe it to be around then. But there are too many factors at play which can alter the results i.e reversal of TDSR/Stamp to offset, not to mention the amount of hot money in the world just looking to be parked.

How impacted you will be is dependent on your property portfolio, generally what I look for in location when the time is right is
For Cheap and high potential residential / Retail play
- Places with upcoming MRT stations that were previously inaccessible, I am particularly interested in the Thompson line Stage 1 & 2 and Downtown line stage 2 areas. Will look to get something if the prices are right.
For expensive but with decent rental - Residential
- River Valley area - Thompson Line stage 3
Addition to the above unless the location is very central it would be
- Near schools or international schools
- Has to attract a decent expat community
- Near some nature attraction.

Types of property I look for (priorities will depend on price)
- Freehold or 999 years (some investors tell me not to bother and its true but can't help it)
- Completed properties the older and cheaper the better - I do not buy new launches, overpriced
- Good if already tenanted.
- En bloc potential
- Good management / Facilities

I can speak for your overseas investments but for your local investment if your not in debt of more than 60% of your asset value your quite safe. (Assuming you have funds to tide over the tough period and the world economy doesn't hit a speed bump). Personally I would prefer 45 -50%

Again my opinion is now is not the right time to buy, but to save up the war chest. Why so? Prices are down but not so much to make a good profit for the possible future risk, also if things go south you want to make sure your existing assets are protected.

What I mean by good profit is for example I went to a apartment which is considered cheap and the owner wanted 1100 psf. Once the mrt was finished in 4 years I think I can fetch maybe 1350 - 1450 psf. which is only 250 - 350K profit. Not worth it + future risk, I would buy it for 850 - 950 psf. So I will wait till prices hit my price range before going in.

Can't tell when the market will hit bottom so set a price range you can work with and strike when it hits.

You may not agree but I appreciate your views on the above. Thanks

Originally Posted by Unregistered

Anyway, i'm the one who agreed with your advise.

In fact, i'm interested to know your advise and get input regarding market timing and location for a good value property. As i mentioned, i keep my hdb, a condo and few shared property oversea. So far the yield is quite good during these past 5 years. And as long i keep my debt ratio and interest cover within my limit, i feel quite safe.

However, moving forward, in my opinion, i feel the market is heavily controlled now. Not sure whether investing in property might be a good short term move now. But perhaps i don't see something that you see. Hence any advise will be greatly appreciated.

Thanks. Your insight is valuable. Appreciate it

I guess you are right. My debt asset ratio is close to 60% now. It's better for me to reduce it to 50% and accumulate liquid asset first.

At least whenever there is a downturn or a relax in property cooling measure, you have chips on hand to play.

I agree with downtown line, i think it is quite promising for some areas.

Regarding: tenure and old/new property, i still have a doubt.
- for rental gain, isn't it shorter tenure 99 years better than 999 or freehold? Or the capital gain is better for freehold in the long run?

- i'm still newbie, hence new property will be ideal for me as i can defer the payment and installment depending on the TOP. Also, i think it's not easy to find undervalued property in the old estate which has an en bloc discussion.

Originally Posted by Unregistered

Thanks, looks like several like minded here which is great to know.

I'm no guru but I will share on what I believe (that means 70% gut feel) on market timing, this of course is based on no major worldwide economic correction/war etc. I believe 2017 - 2018 is the period I suspect we would hit a bigger correction. Say 20 -30%? Primarily because US fed gave an indication that it will increase interest rates around that period which will mean an increase in rates here. Not need to go into details but it would be huge considering how overleverage some people are, Also the election year is 2016, assuming pap win I don't think they would be eager to rush in seeing that next election is a long way off. Not to mention we have an oversupply of properties coming in and a decline in the rental sector. I suppose that's why the government advocates the population increase to soak up the excess, hence I believe it to be around then. But there are too many factors at play which can alter the results i.e reversal of TDSR/Stamp to offset, not to mention the amount of hot money in the world just looking to be parked.

How impacted you will be is dependent on your property portfolio, generally what I look for in location when the time is right is
For Cheap and high potential residential / Retail play
- Places with upcoming MRT stations that were previously inaccessible, I am particularly interested in the Thompson line Stage 1 & 2 and Downtown line stage 2 areas. Will look to get something if the prices are right.
For expensive but with decent rental - Residential
- River Valley area - Thompson Line stage 3
Addition to the above unless the location is very central it would be
- Near schools or international schools
- Has to attract a decent expat community
- Near some nature attraction.

Types of property I look for (priorities will depend on price)
- Freehold or 999 years (some investors tell me not to bother and its true but can't help it)
- Completed properties the older and cheaper the better - I do not buy new launches, overpriced
- Good if already tenanted.
- En bloc potential
- Good management / Facilities

I can speak for your overseas investments but for your local investment if your not in debt of more than 60% of your asset value your quite safe. (Assuming you have funds to tide over the tough period and the world economy doesn't hit a speed bump). Personally I would prefer 45 -50%

Again my opinion is now is not the right time to buy, but to save up the war chest. Why so? Prices are down but not so much to make a good profit for the possible future risk, also if things go south you want to make sure your existing assets are protected.

What I mean by good profit is for example I went to a apartment which is considered cheap and the owner wanted 1100 psf. Once the mrt was finished in 4 years I think I can fetch maybe 1350 - 1450 psf. which is only 250 - 350K profit. Not worth it + future risk, I would buy it for 850 - 950 psf. So I will wait till prices hit my price range before going in.

Can't tell when the market will hit bottom so set a price range you can work with and strike when it hits.

You may not agree but I appreciate your views on the above. Thanks

Originally Posted by Unregistered

Regarding: tenure and old/new property, i still have a doubt.
- for rental gain, isn't it shorter tenure 99 years better than 999 or freehold? Or the capital gain is better for freehold in the long run?

Yes that is correct for 99 years rental yield would be better, its a personal thing really I just don't fancy 99 years property. Not to mention the properties I look at are generally older so they may only have 70 odd years left on the lease, and interestly most of the properties I look at (freehold) are cheaper in comparison to the brand new 99 year condo's. But mainly its a personal preference (for residential)

I do however have 60 years leashold industrial compound giving about 5% yield.

Originally Posted by Unregistered

- i'm still newbie, hence new property will be ideal for me as i can defer the payment and installment depending on the TOP. Also, i think it's not easy to find undervalued property in the old estate which has an en bloc discussion.

Developers generally price in their P&L for new properties so unless the market is rising steeply to make a good profit on it is challenging (But if its own stay then bite the bullet). If I got time next week I'll try to get a working example to show what I mean.

Sorry what I mean by en bloc potential is not properties already in en bloc talks (impossible to buy in at a good price then) but potential. For example if I see an old condo with a large open car park space or swimming pool it means there is un-utilized plot ratio, a developer will consider that as if he buys the complex he can use that space to add more units. Or say the Condo sinking fund has an unusually large sum of money that is something a developer will take into consideration (its kind of like a corporate takeover). There are alot more consideration like road boundaries and set backs but too the initial bits I what I look for first.

For those of you who are thinking of selling your HDB flat and upgrading to a condo, I would recommend buying condos in the Jurong Lake District. Listen to the National Day Rally yesterday. The JLD will have a new science centre and a new Jurong Lake Gardens. Also the KL-Singapore high speed rail terminal may likely be located in Jurong Lake District. The JLD will be booming BIG time soon.

New condos you can consider buying: The Lakefront Residences (next to Lakeside MRT station) and J Gateway (next to JE MRT station). Prices are still low, for eg, you can get a 2 bedroom condo in Lakefront Residences for less than $1m. J Gateway condos are a bit more expensive due to its excellent location.

Originally Posted by Unregistered

The hard reality is: if you own and live in a condo in Singapore, you are definitely considered the upper class, much higher than the middle class. Don't try to console yourself by saying this and that, the truth is owning and living in a condo is a status symbol. That is why most Singaporeans aspire to own and live in a condo. Those who can't make it go for ECs, which is a lesser cousin of PCs, but better than public flats.

Is this meant to be a satire? You sound like a poor git posting here to console yourself.

I make $260k a year, I'm 31, and I live in a HDB resale which I paid in cash. My first property was a 99 year brand new condo which I bought when I was 25 and sold five years later. I don't want to buy a condo because the asset appreciation of 99 year real estate in Singapore is just good enough to cover interests paid.

I am very sure that
1) I will have much more money than you when we are both retired, even though you live in a your "condo", could be some crappy old unmovable dump in Hillview and Gombak whose price has not changed for the past 20 years, which you are still servicing a loan for.
2) Before retirement, I have much more money to spend and save than you, since I make more and don't spend a cent on mortgage.

There are many wealthy people who live in HDB. I know a couple who owns a construction SME and whose income combined is over $500k living in a HDB flat as well. And there are so many cheap crappy condos all over Singapore. Most condo buyers are HDB upgraders and many people who live in HDB flats buy resale. Times have changed and things are not so simplistic and cut-and-dry as in 1989. Unless your condo is fully paid up and in D9 or D10, don't make a fool of yourself here.

I forgot to add: Unless your condo is FREEHOLD, D9, D10 and fully paid.

99 year leasehold condos above 7 years old are ticking time bombs and rendered worthless after 10 years. 99 year landed properties are the worst.

You said you earned $260k a year? You are too emotional and irrational in your argument. I think your company made a big mistake in paying you so much. Sooner or later they will realise their mistake.

In one fell swoop, you just blacklisted a large proportion of well to do people living in leasehold condos.

Originally Posted by Unregistered

I forgot to add: Unless your condo is FREEHOLD, D9, D10 and fully paid.

99 year leasehold condos above 7 years old are ticking time bombs and rendered worthless after 10 years. 99 year landed properties are the worst.

Originally Posted by Unregistered

You said you earned $260k a year? You are too emotional and irrational in your argument. I think your company made a big mistake in paying you so much. Sooner or later they will realise their mistake.

In one fell swoop, you just blacklisted a large proportion of well to do people living in leasehold condos.

How did I blacklist anything? I'm not the CIA.
I used to live in a leasehold condo.

Did I say all leasehold condo residents are poor gits? There are many people who own leasehold condos who are rich. There are many others who are poor. What's wrong with your logical faculties? It could go either way. Living in a leasehold condo is not definitive sign that you are Peter Lim's wealth tier for one to talk out of their behind.

What I said was unless your condo is fully paid up, freehold and in D9 and D10, posting what that person posted is simply ridiculous and circa-1989.

It is simply ridiculous to talk about "condo living" as though it is the most definitive symbol of having made it, whatever bs hogwash lol that that person posted, please reread what he said (I quoted it) and tell me if it isn't a ridiculous joke. For one, the post was itself ridiculous as it does not correlate to reality. Secondly, it was written that reveals not all Singaporeans aspire to living in a condo, it's the ones he knows. There is no magical line that neatly divides groups of people in a definitive way. There are resale HDB flats that are priced higher than condos and there are condos that are priced higher than landed properties. Is this person in kindergarten? The way he talks it is as if he is posting from 1989 and if you want me to be utterly frank, I can tell that he is a someone drawing a low income because only a poor person with a low net-worth (paid up assets) and annual income would have that bumpkin mentality. I know because I have a high income and I know how high-income think.

The only reason people like him (who characterize at least 99 per cent of Singaporeans from my own experience) are so brainwashed and ignorant is because they have never lived anywhere else in the world and their entire perspective of life is based on a microstate, which is not even a natural occurrence worldwide. There are only a few microstates in the whole world. Most human beings in the world do not live in a microstate. So you guys are in the super minority of probably 0.0005% of the whole world to be that unlucky to be born here. In the US, the first home of newly married couples is a 2,000 sq feet single family home. The only reason you slog your ass off and pay 10 times of what Americans and Canadians (they own their property and land forever), just to rent your place from the government for 99 years and not be able to give it to your descendant, is because your "whole country" is not even the size of one city of big countries! You may know it in theory but unless you've lived it and therefore experienced it yourself, you will not understand it and that's why you think people who live in big houses abroad are living a "vacation" life that's not real, when really, that is the everyday life of people in US and Canada. Just look at how he aspires to a "condo", and talks as if it's the holy grail for his existence and validation of his worth, which really is only lived by poor people in high-rise housing projects in developed countries.

One of the other reasons besides the poor appreciation of property assets against bank interest that I did not get a place that I couldn't pay in full, is because I refuse to sink any roots here further, and have plans to leave once I make more money out of this place and milk it for what I can (I have citizenship in a huge superpower country). You are living an unreal situation in an unreal world because you happen to be born in microstate. Nothing more to it..