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Old 17-08-2014, 10:41 PM
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Thanks, looks like several like minded here which is great to know.

I'm no guru but I will share on what I believe (that means 70% gut feel) on market timing, this of course is based on no major worldwide economic correction/war etc. I believe 2017 - 2018 is the period I suspect we would hit a bigger correction. Say 20 -30%? Primarily because US fed gave an indication that it will increase interest rates around that period which will mean an increase in rates here. Not need to go into details but it would be huge considering how overleverage some people are, Also the election year is 2016, assuming pap win I don't think they would be eager to rush in seeing that next election is a long way off. Not to mention we have an oversupply of properties coming in and a decline in the rental sector. I suppose that's why the government advocates the population increase to soak up the excess, hence I believe it to be around then. But there are too many factors at play which can alter the results i.e reversal of TDSR/Stamp to offset, not to mention the amount of hot money in the world just looking to be parked.

How impacted you will be is dependent on your property portfolio, generally what I look for in location when the time is right is
For Cheap and high potential residential / Retail play
- Places with upcoming MRT stations that were previously inaccessible, I am particularly interested in the Thompson line Stage 1 & 2 and Downtown line stage 2 areas. Will look to get something if the prices are right.
For expensive but with decent rental - Residential
- River Valley area - Thompson Line stage 3
Addition to the above unless the location is very central it would be
- Near schools or international schools
- Has to attract a decent expat community
- Near some nature attraction.

Types of property I look for (priorities will depend on price)
- Freehold or 999 years (some investors tell me not to bother and its true but can't help it)
- Completed properties the older and cheaper the better - I do not buy new launches, overpriced
- Good if already tenanted.
- En bloc potential
- Good management / Facilities

I can speak for your overseas investments but for your local investment if your not in debt of more than 60% of your asset value your quite safe. (Assuming you have funds to tide over the tough period and the world economy doesn't hit a speed bump). Personally I would prefer 45 -50%

Again my opinion is now is not the right time to buy, but to save up the war chest. Why so? Prices are down but not so much to make a good profit for the possible future risk, also if things go south you want to make sure your existing assets are protected.

What I mean by good profit is for example I went to a apartment which is considered cheap and the owner wanted 1100 psf. Once the mrt was finished in 4 years I think I can fetch maybe 1350 - 1450 psf. which is only 250 - 350K profit. Not worth it + future risk, I would buy it for 850 - 950 psf. So I will wait till prices hit my price range before going in.

Can't tell when the market will hit bottom so set a price range you can work with and strike when it hits.

You may not agree but I appreciate your views on the above. Thanks

Quote:
Originally Posted by Unregistered View Post
Anyway, i'm the one who agreed with your advise.

In fact, i'm interested to know your advise and get input regarding market timing and location for a good value property. As i mentioned, i keep my hdb, a condo and few shared property oversea. So far the yield is quite good during these past 5 years. And as long i keep my debt ratio and interest cover within my limit, i feel quite safe.

However, moving forward, in my opinion, i feel the market is heavily controlled now. Not sure whether investing in property might be a good short term move now. But perhaps i don't see something that you see. Hence any advise will be greatly appreciated.


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