No Try No Strike

Originally Posted by Hermit

Finally we have someone here who stayed awake during Probability 101 class.

getting a job gives you a high probability of earning a mediocre income. go get a job.

but i wouldn't mind investing a little bit in a low-probability event that may give a high return. e.g. start a business on the side. i believe if you keep trying, lady luck will come.

the usual probability "experts" aren't rich people you know.

it's the _unusual_ probability experts, people who truly understand luck and probability, who will get abnormal returns. examples of these true experts:
Edward Thorp
Claude Shannon
Nassim Taleb
(they are highly intelligent, extremely well-versed in probability, AND they have exploited probability to be very rich)

btw, the putting-hand-in-a-blender example is truly the stupidest counter argument i've heard. only people who are at the probability-101 level can give such lousy examples.

taleb is not that intellignet. he is just an average trader who got lucky with a couple of books (mainly stealing ideas and popularizing ideas from the great Karl Popper).

Also, the Sunshine empire guys are charged with criminal fraud and are now wiping bars in our good prison

Sunshine Empire - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Fortune will fine you if you are destined to be wealthy. Problem is, most ppl are not destined to be wealth, but believe that they are, and pay to pursue the wealth that was never meant to be from the start. then again we need fools like that to sponsore our charitable cause through the tote board, and that's a good thing.

Originally Posted by Unregistered

taleb is not that intellignet. he is just an average trader who got lucky with a couple of books (mainly stealing ideas and popularizing ideas from the great Karl Popper).

Also, the Sunshine empire guys are charged with criminal fraud and are now wiping bars in our good prison

Sunshine Empire - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Fortune will fine you if you are destined to be wealthy. Problem is, most ppl are not destined to be wealth, but believe that they are, and pay to pursue the wealth that was never meant to be from the start. then again we need fools like that to sponsore our charitable cause through the tote board, and that's a good thing.

good. then we all just have to sit and wait for fortune to be bestowed upon us.

good gracious fatalistic view.