How much savings do you have?

Originally Posted by Unregistered

No need to make up figures. Look at URA property price index for residential non landed condominium. Can find this on Bloomberg.

12/1997 - 144.0
12/98 - 100.0 (-31%)

6/00 - 141.5
6/04 - 111.4 (-22%)

6/08 - 178.7
6/09 - 132.2 (-26%)

Hdb resale index fell from 136.9 in q4 96 to 95.5 in q1 02 or down 30%.

All this is public info.

Or you can check caveats. District 10 freehold semi d in Greenleaf. $3m in 97. $1.4m in 2003.

The problem is in bad years like 1997 / 2000 / 2008, if you invest in other things like stocks, you will be looking at loses of >50% if lucky & 100% wipe out if the co. bankrupt or stock suspended, so compare to stocks property is still the best.

You can alway says put in FD for these years better, but this kind of comment is like horse after cannon, talk after the fact.

Originally Posted by Unregistered

The problem is in bad years like 1997 / 2000 / 2008, if you invest in other things like stocks, you will be looking at loses of >50% if lucky & 100% wipe out if the co. bankrupt or stock suspended, so compare to stocks property is still the best.

You can alway says put in FD for these years better, but this kind of comment is like horse after cannon, talk after the fact.

That's my point. My advice is to put money in fd now target than buying property.

Your argument above is flawed because whether you are in stocks or property, you have the option not to sell and realise the paper loss. If you were forced to sell (ie lost kob, margin call or to pay emergency medical bills etc), you would be much better off in the stock market than in the property market. Why? Because if your property goes down by 20% or 30% your equity is effectively wiped out. In stocks you are probably still solvent, just a lot poorer. And it's much easier to force sell stock than to force sell property.

Originally Posted by Unregistered

That's my point. My advice is to put money in fd now target than buying property.

I heard this analysis from the so call property analyst about cash is king wait for property to drop since late 2009 in 3 yrs time & 3 years later price shoot up now people are still telling me to wait for another 3 yrs for it to drop...

Originally Posted by Unregistered

I heard this analysis from the so call property analyst about cash is king wait for property to drop since late 2009 in 3 yrs time & 3 years later price shoot up now people are still telling me to wait for another 3 yrs for it to drop...

just go for it. dont wait.

waiting for property prices to drop then buy is like gambling. you are speculating that prices will drop.

i rather buy something i can afford and continue to hold even though prices go down. dont buy hoping to flip.

i have a friend who sold his condo in early 2010 and renting until now. his profits from his property almost eaten up by the rents all these 3 years. now he has to buy a HDB flat and he is a banker! a banker saying in a HDB flat! whereas i'm a humble person living in a condo because i bought mine in 2004 and didnt sell.

Originally Posted by Unregistered

just go for it. dont wait.

waiting for property prices to drop then buy is like gambling. you are speculating that prices will drop.

i rather buy something i can afford and continue to hold even though prices go down. dont buy hoping to flip.

i have a friend who sold his condo in early 2010 and renting until now. his profits from his property almost eaten up by the rents all these 3 years. now he has to buy a HDB flat and he is a banker! a banker saying in a HDB flat! whereas i'm a humble person living in a condo because i bought mine in 2004 and didnt sell.

That's the problem the finance savy people, they outsmarted by themselves. Property market just like any market is too random & sophsiticated to be easily predicted by a few theory and numbers. All this market watcher always say until dragon tiger come out like very sensible and convincing, but the market price just refuse to follow their logic, so end up kena burn over nothing.

Originally Posted by Unregistered

just go for it. dont wait.

waiting for property prices to drop then buy is like gambling. you are speculating that prices will drop.

i rather buy something i can afford and continue to hold even though prices go down. dont buy hoping to flip.

i have a friend who sold his condo in early 2010 and renting until now. his profits from his property almost eaten up by the rents all these 3 years. now he has to buy a HDB flat and he is a banker! a banker saying in a HDB flat! whereas i'm a humble person living in a condo because i bought mine in 2004 and didnt sell.

Depends on your objective. If your objective is to live in a condo, then by all means go ahead and buy.

But if you hope to make good return on the investment, then buying now isn't going to give you the best odds.

Of course I could be wrong and property prices could go up another 30%. But I could live with myself knowing full well that I took a conscious decision to stay out after calculating the odds.

But if I jump in, knowing full well that I'm going in when prices are at an all time high, interest rates are at all time low etc, and sure enough prices fall 30%, I'll find that quite hard to live down.

Take the example of the guy that bought his district 9 house in 97. Bought his house at $ x, saw it decline to $0.6x then increase to $1.2x. First off, assuming inflation of 3% pa, he's actually down 25% in real terms without taking into account interest cost- some inflation hedge his property had proven to be! Second I think we are at the same inflexion point and my goal is to be the person buying at $0.6x.

I may miss but not for the lack of trying. True investing involves more than buy-and-pray !

I never believe those who can talk one whole long story about their market timing rationale. Seen too many of these talk cock kings who got their arse ripped. Even the world best billionaire investor Warren Buffet admit he can't predict market go up or down, so I take all these millionaire wanabe who don't even have 0.1% of his money with a lorry of salt.

Originally Posted by Unregistered

Of course I could be wrong and property prices could go up another 30%. But I could live with myself knowing full well that I took a conscious decision to stay out after calculating the odds.

Good. Please share with us your calculations on the odds and how you arrive at the conclusion that keeping cash now gives a better risk weighted return than buying property in the next 3 years.

I mean real probability calculation of odds, not general feeling about what you think interest rates or price trend is going to be like.

Originally Posted by ptader

Good. Please share with us your calculations on the odds and how you arrive at the conclusion that keeping cash now gives a better risk weighted return than buying property in the next 3 years.

I mean real probability calculation of odds, not general feeling about what you think interest rates or price trend is going to be like.

i personally feel that property is not going to drop till 2015 as long as Sibor stays <1 percent.

i think those people who say property is going to crash 30% are kinda nuts.

I agree with the analysis of #406.