How much savings do you have?

Originally Posted by ptader

TBH realistically for sinkies besides betting on property what else can they invest to make it big? Even if property got cycle, not ideal, depend on timing etc... What other alternatives are there? Property is still the surest way to make money compare to all others.

Fix Deposit, Bank Savings, Strucutred Deposit etc - All pathetic interest guaranteed to lose to inflation

Stocks - Full of consters, scandal, crappy IPOs. Stocks is the kind you always hear about someone somewhere make big money, but its never you. Besdies the money you can borrow for stock punting is much lower and higher interest rate than whacking property. You look at the Sunday Times invest section where they interview rich people, most tycoons are either start own business or play property, stock people are like super rare

Bonds - Retail bonds are now a joke with maturty yields averaging 1.5-2.5%. Those with higher yields are either open only to accreditied investors or trade at blocks of $250,000.

Unit Trust - All those professional manage funds charge high fees, pay this pay that and in the end most underperform and even if you lucky to get some better ones, they are only slightly better, not enough to make it big.

ETF - Supposedly safer because of diversification, but returns are so so, cannot really borrow money. Most expose to USD which keep depreciating against SGD. Probably a good way if people are discipline and invest regulary, but very hard to get rich or retire early.

Endowment / ILP - Always hear of people selling these junk, but never heard of anyone getting rich through a ILP except for the insurance agent

Commodities like gold, silver, diamond - Really just high volatile price. Pure 100% gambling, again compared to property cannot borrow as much, sometimes high sometimes low. Property is more like 80% of the time high and 20% low.

Forex / Option / Future trading - Just like stock, always hear rumor about someone somewhere make it big, but those who make it big super rare. This is the favorite of newbie fresh grads with little money but want to dream of retire at 40. Usually loose money through leverage until blur blur then give up and go back to a 9-5 job.

Alternative Investment - Wine, art, farm, gold rebate scheme, land banking, MLM whatever. Most require special expertise or just con jobs waiting to explode.

Good summary.

I also want to add that property to most Sgeans is mostly about condos. Landed, office and retail properties are too ex for most to even pay the downpayment. Industrial was hot for a few months, but now kena clam down by government so the market for small timers is almost dead. I have a few friends who use to shout that as long as buy blue chip shares is safe until they got burn backside by big companies like Capitaland, NOL, SGX, Wilmar, DBS etc. Already >5 years still sitting on big paper losses.

Originally Posted by Unregistered

Good summary.

I also want to add that property to most Sgeans is mostly about condos. Landed, office and retail properties are too ex for most to even pay the downpayment. Industrial was hot for a few months, but now kena clam down by government so the market for small timers is almost dead. I have a few friends who use to shout that as long as buy blue chip shares is safe until they got burn backside by big companies like Capitaland, NOL, SGX, Wilmar, DBS etc. Already >5 years still sitting on big paper losses.

did the govt clam down on industrial?
i thought all the cooling measures only for residential?

Originally Posted by Unregistered

did the govt clam down on industrial?
i thought all the cooling measures only for residential?

Yes, the clam down is even worse than residential. Now all leasehold industrial land max is 30 years and small units <1500 sqf permits very strict. Many small timers not interested because 30 yrs is just too short for collecting rent for retirement. Some small timers end up need to join other owners to sell off the space together to make it marketable, otherwise the units are too small to get good rent. All the good industrial projects are taken up by institutions and those left for the public are usually garbage.

Originally Posted by ptader

TBH realistically for sinkies besides betting on property what else can they invest to make it big? Even if property got cycle, not ideal, depend on timing etc... What other alternatives are there? Property is still the surest way to make money compare to all others.

Fix Deposit, Bank Savings, Strucutred Deposit etc - All pathetic interest guaranteed to lose to inflation

Stocks - Full of consters, scandal, crappy IPOs. Stocks is the kind you always hear about someone somewhere make big money, but its never you. Besdies the money you can borrow for stock punting is much lower and higher interest rate than whacking property. You look at the Sunday Times invest section where they interview rich people, most tycoons are either start own business or play property, stock people are like super rare

Bonds - Retail bonds are now a joke with maturty yields averaging 1.5-2.5%. Those with higher yields are either open only to accreditied investors or trade at blocks of $250,000.

Unit Trust - All those professional manage funds charge high fees, pay this pay that and in the end most underperform and even if you lucky to get some better ones, they are only slightly better, not enough to make it big.

ETF - Supposedly safer because of diversification, but returns are so so, cannot really borrow money. Most expose to USD which keep depreciating against SGD. Probably a good way if people are discipline and invest regulary, but very hard to get rich or retire early.

Endowment / ILP - Always hear of people selling these junk, but never heard of anyone getting rich through a ILP except for the insurance agent

Commodities like gold, silver, diamond - Really just high volatile price. Pure 100% gambling, again compared to property cannot borrow as much, sometimes high sometimes low. Property is more like 80% of the time high and 20% low.

Forex / Option / Future trading - Just like stock, always hear rumor about someone somewhere make it big, but those who make it big super rare. This is the favorite of newbie fresh grads with little money but want to dream of retire at 40. Usually loose money through leverage until blur blur then give up and go back to a 9-5 job.

Alternative Investment - Wine, art, farm, gold rebate scheme, land banking, MLM whatever. Most require special expertise or just con jobs waiting to explode.

3 counter points.

1. Not necessary to stay invested at all times - now is a particularly tricky time to be invested in any asset class. Understand that inflation is a concern, but buying property has at a high is no hedge (i.e. if you bought a property in 1997, you may not have broken even in NOMINAL terms even today).

2. Leverage is the primary advantage AND disadvantage for property
- obviously many generations of Singaporeans have made it rich by buying property due to the effect of leverage. But this is a double edged sword.
- if you buy a $2mn property today, using your hard earned $400k as downpayment, and we see a 'normal' downturn with a 30% drop in prices, you would lose $600k and be in negative equity territory
- I know its only a paper loss if you can hold on to the property, but isn't it better to wait until it drops to $1.4mn before you buy ?

3. Policy risk
- We are seeing more policy risk now than ever, as the govt is coming up with round after round of policy measures - there's no end to this
- If you look at what the govt has done, they have effectively taken away foreign buyers (10% stamp duty), speculators (16% sellers tax within 1st yr) and reduced mortgage tenors (35yr / 65 yr old rule)
- historically such policy measures have a lag effect, but they WILL eventually gain traction (this has been proven throughout history and across geographies), so why buy now?
- its damn hard to make money now i.e. my 3 to 5-yr outlook is more negative than positive (against the backdrop of continued policy risk, weak global environment, property prices at an all time high, interest rates at an all time low, record TOPs coming onstream in the next 3 yrs) and if i want to flip, i buy a $2mn property now and pay 3% stamp duty, 1% agent commission, 16% seller's tax, 2% agent commission to sell my current house --> means I have to sell at above a 22% profit in order just to break even !

so in summary, why property and why now ?

Originally Posted by Unregistered

3 counter points.

1. Not necessary to stay invested at all times - now is a particularly tricky time to be invested in any asset class. Understand that inflation is a concern, but buying property has at a high is no hedge (i.e. if you bought a property in 1997, you may not have broken even in NOMINAL terms even today).

2. Leverage is the primary advantage AND disadvantage for property
- obviously many generations of Singaporeans have made it rich by buying property due to the effect of leverage. But this is a double edged sword.
- if you buy a $2mn property today, using your hard earned $400k as downpayment, and we see a 'normal' downturn with a 30% drop in prices, you would lose $600k and be in negative equity territory
- I know its only a paper loss if you can hold on to the property, but isn't it better to wait until it drops to $1.4mn before you buy ?

3. Policy risk
- We are seeing more policy risk now than ever, as the govt is coming up with round after round of policy measures - there's no end to this
- If you look at what the govt has done, they have effectively taken away foreign buyers (10% stamp duty), speculators (16% sellers tax within 1st yr) and reduced mortgage tenors (35yr / 65 yr old rule)
- historically such policy measures have a lag effect, but they WILL eventually gain traction (this has been proven throughout history and across geographies), so why buy now?
- its damn hard to make money now i.e. my 3 to 5-yr outlook is more negative than positive (against the backdrop of continued policy risk, weak global environment, property prices at an all time high, interest rates at an all time low, record TOPs coming onstream in the next 3 yrs) and if i want to flip, i buy a $2mn property now and pay 3% stamp duty, 1% agent commission, 16% seller's tax, 2% agent commission to sell my current house --> means I have to sell at above a 22% profit in order just to break even !

so in summary, why property and why now ?

3 to 5 years is a very long time. so what do you suggest we do now? keep cash?

Originally Posted by Unregistered

3 counter points.

1. Not necessary to stay invested at all times - now is a particularly tricky time to be invested in any asset class. Understand that inflation is a concern, but buying property has at a high is no hedge (i.e. if you bought a property in 1997, you may not have broken even in NOMINAL terms even today).

2. Leverage is the primary advantage AND disadvantage for property
- obviously many generations of Singaporeans have made it rich by buying property due to the effect of leverage. But this is a double edged sword.
- if you buy a $2mn property today, using your hard earned $400k as downpayment, and we see a 'normal' downturn with a 30% drop in prices, you would lose $600k and be in negative equity territory
- I know its only a paper loss if you can hold on to the property, but isn't it better to wait until it drops to $1.4mn before you buy ?

3. Policy risk
- We are seeing more policy risk now than ever, as the govt is coming up with round after round of policy measures - there's no end to this
- If you look at what the govt has done, they have effectively taken away foreign buyers (10% stamp duty), speculators (16% sellers tax within 1st yr) and reduced mortgage tenors (35yr / 65 yr old rule)
- historically such policy measures have a lag effect, but they WILL eventually gain traction (this has been proven throughout history and across geographies), so why buy now?
- its damn hard to make money now i.e. my 3 to 5-yr outlook is more negative than positive (against the backdrop of continued policy risk, weak global environment, property prices at an all time high, interest rates at an all time low, record TOPs coming onstream in the next 3 yrs) and if i want to flip, i buy a $2mn property now and pay 3% stamp duty, 1% agent commission, 16% seller's tax, 2% agent commission to sell my current house --> means I have to sell at above a 22% profit in order just to break even !

so in summary, why property and why now ?

Thanks for your point.

All the points you mention everybody already know, but the thing is if not property what else is there? At least for property only those suay enough to enter at 1997 got backside burn, but alternatives like stock market don't know how many people got burn how many times from 1997 to now. Put in FD is like confirm chop guarantee loose 5% to inflation every year.

Property is not good investment, but just the best among all other possible alternatives in sgland.

Originally Posted by ptader

Thanks for your point.

All the points you mention everybody already know, but the thing is if not property what else is there? At least for property only those suay enough to enter at 1997 got backside burn, but alternatives like stock market don't know how many people got burn how many times from 1997 to now. Put in FD is like confirm chop guarantee loose 5% to inflation every year.

Property is not good investment, but just the best among all other possible alternatives in sgland.

Property may drop 30% or more.

Originally Posted by Unregistered

Property may drop 30% or more.

stocks will likely climb 12.2 percent more before dropping 45% over next 3.5 years. 15 million companies worldwide will go bankrupt.

commercially bred chickens through genetic selection technology will become 67.5% bigger in the future and Singaporeans will no longer be able to consume an average of 2.8 pieces per set meal; this figure will drop to 2.1.

i love pulling figures out of my ass too!

Originally Posted by Unregistered

stocks will likely climb 12.2 percent more before dropping 45% over next 3.5 years. 15 million companies worldwide will go bankrupt.

commercially bred chickens through genetic selection technology will become 67.5% bigger in the future and Singaporeans will no longer be able to consume an average of 2.8 pieces per set meal; this figure will drop to 2.1.

i love pulling figures out of my ass too!

No need to make up figures. Look at URA property price index for residential non landed condominium. Can find this on Bloomberg.

12/1997 - 144.0
12/98 - 100.0 (-31%)

6/00 - 141.5
6/04 - 111.4 (-22%)

6/08 - 178.7
6/09 - 132.2 (-26%)

Hdb resale index fell from 136.9 in q4 96 to 95.5 in q1 02 or down 30%.

All this is public info.

Or you can check caveats. District 10 freehold semi d in Greenleaf. $3m in 97. $1.4m in 2003.

i bought a condominium unit in D9 in 1996 at a high, it went down by 40% due to the asian crisis and SARs. i held on until today. today's price is now 20% higher than my purchase price. as long as you are able to hold, property is still the best investment.

i bought some blue chip stocks and some of these stocks dropped 90% of its value and never recovered.

so i believe in Singapore property.