How much are you earning per annum?

Originally Posted by Unregistered

Hi, our family has two old cars which need to be replaced with two new ones, both about one year to go. I hope your prediction of $30k COE is right. Until when should we wait?

Can you wait till Mid 2016?

Originally Posted by Unregistered

Can you wait till Mid 2016?

No. One year to go. Will COE drop to $30k by Oct 2015?

Originally Posted by Unregistered

No. One year to go. Will COE drop to $30k by Oct 2015?

too much pent up demand over last few years, and too many people waiting impatiently

probably $50k by Oct 2015 (CatA).

need one more year probably to mid 2016. Mid is to avoid the seasonal demand, and if can, get it on the chinese 7th month

Don't BS him. Just now say crash to $30k now say $50k. Stupid nonsense.

Originally Posted by Unregistered

too much pent up demand over last few years, and too many people waiting impatiently

probably $50k by Oct 2015 (CatA).

need one more year probably to mid 2016. Mid is to avoid the seasonal demand, and if can, get it on the chinese 7th month

Originally Posted by Unregistered

No. One year to go. Will COE drop to $30k by Oct 2015?

stop dreaming. don't believe him. coe prices for cat a will rise to $80k and for cat b will rise to $85k by end of 2015. by end of 2016, cat a and cat b will reach $90k plus.

in 2015, 100,000 car owners will be rushing to change new cars.
in 2016, another 100,000 car owners will be rushing to change to new cars.
on top of that, there will be additional demand from new drivers, more population, richer people and many more. even hdb dwellers will be buying new cars.

Originally Posted by Unregistered

stop dreaming. don't believe him. coe prices for cat a will rise to $80k and for cat b will rise to $85k by end of 2015. by end of 2016, cat a and cat b will reach $90k plus.

in 2015, 100,000 car owners will be rushing to change new cars.
in 2016, another 100,000 car owners will be rushing to change to new cars.
on top of that, there will be additional demand from new drivers, more population, richer people and many more. even hdb dwellers will be buying new cars.

The car salesman is here to spread fear again

This is after all an anonymous forum so no one should believe anything posted here. It is for fun.

You just say your piece, share your opinion and try to back it up with some persuasive argument and facts to make it some reasonable / plausible.

So my take on the COE price trend is as follows:

1. Gahmen dont want COE to be too high. Is current level considered high? No if the public complaint is not loud enough. If a lot of people write in to newspapers to complain, or complain to MP etc, then they will be forced to act. Right now, this is not happening.

2. Gahmen dont want COE price to fluctuate wildly. This is no good for business and individuals. So when bumper COE comes in 2015/16, gahmen will spread out the distribution over a longer period. So supply will not overly large at any one time.

3. Gahmen dont want our roads to be jammed. Jammed roads have high Economic cost. We dont want another Jakarta, KL or HK where roads are so jammy. So likely gahmen will keep cutting the car population growth every year. Now 0.25%, next year - 0.1%, year after next -- 0.05%. So supply will be greatly constrained.

Given the above scenarios, the COE will only fall if there is external shocks like another financial crisis, natural disaster or disease outbreak etc... If not, COE likely to remain in the $50K - $70K range for CAT A. $60K to $80K for CAT B and Open Cat.

Originally Posted by Unregistered

The car salesman is here to spread fear again

In the past, if you have a strong young horse, you will attract the fair maidens who see you as a potential husband.

Today, owning a new nice car has the same effect. If you drive a new shiny car, girls will look up to you. That is why many young men want to buy a new car. It is an investment to attract girls.

Nearly fell my chair that such backward thinking still around. Women in third world countries maybe, but not for highly educated women in this cosmopolitan city .

I think you are quite behind.

Nowadays dudes are buying cars because they need it to keep up with the gals, not to attract them.

LOL.

Originally Posted by Unregistered

In the past, if you have a strong young horse, you will attract the fair maidens who see you as a potential husband.

Today, owning a new nice car has the same effect. If you drive a new shiny car, girls will look up to you. That is why many young men want to buy a new car. It is an investment to attract girls.

Originally Posted by Unregistered

Nearly fell my chair that such backward thinking still around. Women in third world countries maybe, but not for highly educated women in this cosmopolitan city .

I think you are quite behind.

Nowadays dudes are buying cars because they need it to keep up with the gals, not to attract them.

LOL.

LOL.

How true! The gals in my office are not only hot and smart, they also own fancy cars!