This is after all an anonymous forum so no one should believe anything posted here. It is for fun.

You just say your piece, share your opinion and try to back it up with some persuasive argument and facts to make it some reasonable / plausible.

So my take on the COE price trend is as follows:

1. Gahmen dont want COE to be too high. Is current level considered high? No if the public complaint is not loud enough. If a lot of people write in to newspapers to complain, or complain to MP etc, then they will be forced to act. Right now, this is not happening.

2. Gahmen dont want COE price to fluctuate wildly. This is no good for business and individuals. So when bumper COE comes in 2015/16, gahmen will spread out the distribution over a longer period. So supply will not overly large at any one time.

3. Gahmen dont want our roads to be jammed. Jammed roads have high Economic cost. We dont want another Jakarta, KL or HK where roads are so jammy. So likely gahmen will keep cutting the car population growth every year. Now 0.25%, next year - 0.1%, year after next -- 0.05%. So supply will be greatly constrained.

Given the above scenarios, the COE will only fall if there is external shocks like another financial crisis, natural disaster or disease outbreak etc... If not, COE likely to remain in the $50K - $70K range for CAT A. $60K to $80K for CAT B and Open Cat.