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How much are you earning per annum?

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  #1001 (permalink)  
Old 28-11-2011, 05:08 PM
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Let's not start banker bashing. There are rogues in every profession.

Back to property. Noone knows if prices are going to fall 10%, 15% or 30%.

3 Key things:

1. Property prices in recent months are moderating. <fact. URA data>

2. The SG government is focused on controlling housing prices. <fact. statements from government sources, widely circulated in local media>

3. Global economic headwinds <fact>

4. SG GDP revision <fact>

5. Jobs are being lost <fact>

Conclusion: Brokerage houses are calling a price decline. Maybe it will happen. Maybe it wont. But it seems one thing is clear - Property prices are not going to rise at the same pace they were rising.

So, if things are so uncertain, why jump in now? Like bulls charging forward when view is obscured by fog. Who knows ahead is the cliff edge? Why not wait awhile till the fog gets clearer? What do you lose? Time, some price upside. Better than falling over the cliff. It is a long way back-up from down there.

Property is a leveraged bet and a big proportion of the household balancesheet. Don't speculate.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Unregistered View Post
How much do you know about these mini Nostradamuses? Are you 100% sure they are ethical in what they do? Haven't you heard of the case where BB investment banks advising their clients on one hand and betting against them on the other?

I'm just an anonymous coward. There's no need for anyone to believe in what I say. However, I find it extremely profitable to bet against whatever those mini Nostradamuses forecast. But caveat emptor, one has to be very nimble in this game.

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  #1002 (permalink)  
Old 28-11-2011, 06:47 PM
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Grad last year with insead mba, in associate program of 2nd tier bank, base is 105k, bonus expected 80k.
Gf still in nie training to be music teacher, receving mininal allowance.
Current combined still qualify to buy bto as bonus are not factored in, but coming next year, gf is graduating to be fully qualified teacher with base 32k.

Should i buy BTO flat now with gf or buy private in 3 yrs while living with parents? Expected to reach vp in 3 year - base around 220k according to seniors
Age is 30. Gf 26. Looking to start family soon.
Senior, pls advise

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  #1003 (permalink)  
Old 28-11-2011, 08:09 PM
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Default Your simplicity suck..!

How can you ask for pay without asking work ex and qualification and age?? Are you out of your freaking mind?? It's not simplicity' it's CRAP..!!

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  #1004 (permalink)  
Old 28-11-2011, 09:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Unregistered View Post
I'm just an anonymous coward. There's no need for anyone to believe in what I say. However, I find it extremely profitable to bet against whatever those mini Nostradamuses forecast. But caveat emptor, one has to be very nimble in this game.
Hi Anonymous Coward,

I'm a fellow anonymous coward who also betted against the mini Nostradamuses.

Was your forehead dripping with sweat and your hand trembling while signing the cheque at the showroom in early 2009?

If you did, then you're also a coward like me, unlike the bravos here.

NOMURA SINGAPORE LIMITED

RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY SINGAPORE ANCHOR REPORT
12 December, 2008

ANALYSTS
Tony Darwell
Min Chow Sai
Daniel Raats

Still critical

We retain our Bearish stance on Singaporeís residential market. Deteriorating economic conditions have impacted both end-user demand and rental housing budgets, driving down rents at a time of rising risk premiums. This deterioration in the marketís condition is adding further downward pressure to asset prices at a time when marginal speculators are looking to de-leverage before TOP and/or developers are committed to launching into a market with few, if any, opportunistic buyers. Whereas in our 20 March note we posited an expectation of a cyclical correction in asset prices with supply outstripping demand, it is evident that even our pessimistic prognosis has been further undermined by a weaker economy. We believe lower rents and softening yields will result in home prices falling further and faster than previously expected: luxury values down 43.8% over 2008-10F (from 32.3% previously), and mass values not being immune, falling 32.1% over 2008-10F (from 19.4% previously).
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  #1005 (permalink)  
Old 29-11-2011, 12:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Unregistered View Post
Hi Anonymous Coward,

I'm a fellow anonymous coward who also betted against the mini Nostradamuses.

Was your forehead dripping with sweat and your hand trembling while signing the cheque at the showroom in early 2009?

If you did, then you're also a coward like me, unlike the bravos here.

NOMURA SINGAPORE LIMITED

RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY SINGAPORE ANCHOR REPORT
12 December, 2008

ANALYSTS
Tony Darwell
Min Chow Sai
Daniel Raats

Still critical

We retain our Bearish stance on Singaporeís residential market. Deteriorating economic conditions have impacted both end-user demand and rental housing budgets, driving down rents at a time of rising risk premiums. This deterioration in the marketís condition is adding further downward pressure to asset prices at a time when marginal speculators are looking to de-leverage before TOP and/or developers are committed to launching into a market with few, if any, opportunistic buyers. Whereas in our 20 March note we posited an expectation of a cyclical correction in asset prices with supply outstripping demand, it is evident that even our pessimistic prognosis has been further undermined by a weaker economy. We believe lower rents and softening yields will result in home prices falling further and faster than previously expected: luxury values down 43.8% over 2008-10F (from 32.3% previously), and mass values not being immune, falling 32.1% over 2008-10F (from 19.4% previously).
I would summarise the following after reading all the counter arguments:

(1) Liquidity is poised to dry up in many parts of the world, starting in Europe and then extending to Asia. EU Central Bank would not print more money, as it would be disastrous to devalue the Euro and flame inflation in a period of downward spirally economic conditions
Asian investors would start pulling back funds to their home countries to cover domestic funding needs. This would also entail foreign house buyers in Singapore starting to dispose of their properties here, triggering a downward pressure on prices.

(2) The government would not rein in foreign demand for private properties, as they are too far down the wrong road of no return. Imposing restrictions on foreign ownership of private properties at a time when many foreigners are trying to monetise their properties here would certainly cause the property market to crash, pushing local home buyers to negative equity, considering all the huge loans undertaken to meet high purchase prices. This is potentially destabilising to the country.

(3) Prices would therefore reach a stalmate, or at the very best decline insignificantly

Implications to potential home buyers - Bite the bullet and buy now if you have sufficient cash reserves to cover for at least 1 year of mortage instalments should you be retrenched

Implications for current home owners - Huge price appreciations are a thing of the past, treat your house as a roof over your head, not some speculative investments. And make sure you squirrel as much cash as possible starting from now in case you are retrenched and out of the job for a year or longer. No one - including the government, would be helping you to pay your huge mortgage

Lastly, for those who believe this bull run would continue, well, this is a free world, you are entitled to your own views....at your own risks of course.............


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  #1006 (permalink)  
Old 29-11-2011, 04:52 PM
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Junior (< 3 years) investment bankers got their bonus in June.

Bonus Watch ’11: Deutsche Bank, RBC, Barclays Dealbreaker: Wall Street Insider ? Financial News, Headlines, Commentary and Analysis – Hedge Funds, Private Equity, Banks

Not too bad what. These are in USD though. For a 1st year Investment banker fresh out of college, that is about 6-8 months bonus!

So the seniors probably are going to get more (paid out in Jan)
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  #1007 (permalink)  
Old 29-11-2011, 04:57 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Unregistered View Post
Conclusion: Brokerage houses are calling a price decline. Maybe it will happen. Maybe it wont. But it seems one thing is clear - Property prices are not going to rise at the same pace they were rising.

So, if things are so uncertain, why jump in now? Like bulls charging forward when view is obscured by fog. Who knows ahead is the cliff edge? Why not wait awhile till the fog gets clearer? What do you lose? Time, some price upside. Better than falling over the cliff. It is a long way back-up from down there.
Your analogy of bulls charging towards a cliff edge is a biased one. How about bulls charging towards an escape route out of a burning valley?

If you wait awhile till the fog gets clearer, you may find that the bulls have already escaped from the death valley and the exit has collapsed, while you are trapped in HDB land forever. It is a long way back-up from down there.
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  #1008 (permalink)  
Old 29-11-2011, 08:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Unregistered View Post
Your analogy of bulls charging towards a cliff edge is a biased one. How about bulls charging towards an escape route out of a burning valley?

If you wait awhile till the fog gets clearer, you may find that the bulls have already escaped from the death valley and the exit has collapsed, while you are trapped in HDB land forever. It is a long way back-up from down there.
I lived through many property cycles, it not good time to enter at such peakish state, but if one really needs a roof, get something you can afford i.e. < 4 x annual salary excluding wife income, annual bonus.

I always advise young couples to start off in HDB first, and upgrade when you have saved enough. As some posters say, it is better to sleep well at night than to live in condo and worry every night of huge mortgage payment.

Every generation will have a chance to buy property at distressed price during crisis. Young ones, be patient, just wait for your turn... property prices cannot go up in straight line forever.
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  #1009 (permalink)  
Old 30-11-2011, 12:35 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Unregistered View Post
I lived through many property cycles, it not good time to enter at such peakish state, but if one really needs a roof, get something you can afford i.e. < 4 x annual salary excluding wife income, annual bonus.

I always advise young couples to start off in HDB first, and upgrade when you have saved enough. As some posters say, it is better to sleep well at night than to live in condo and worry every night of huge mortgage payment.

Every generation will have a chance to buy property at distressed price during crisis. Young ones, be patient, just wait for your turn... property prices cannot go up in straight line forever.
There are only 2 groups of people in this world: those who have guts and those who do not. Unfortunately, your advice wouldn't be of help to either group.

Those young couples who have guts would have bought distressed properties as recently as 2009, which was not even one-tenth of a generation ago, and would have seen their investment quadrupled at least, assuming a 20% down payment for suburban condos which have generaly double in price since then.

On the other hand, those young couples who do not have guts will only tremble and urinate in their pants even if a distressed property is offered right in front of their eyes with the economy around them collapsing, their jobs at stake and bonuses cut. They will live through many property cycles without doing anything, anyway.
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  #1010 (permalink)  
Old 30-11-2011, 07:33 AM
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You are comparing being stucked in HDB land as being stucked in death valley? I suddenly feel sorry for the 80% of Singaporeans living in HDB. I guess there are alot of bulls burning to death.

There is nothing wrong staying in HDB. But if you overstretch ourself and enter the property market at the wrong time, I am sure you will be in a worse off state.

If after looking at all available data, you deduce that the property market is still going to charge ahead, then by all means go ahead. I said don't speculate. There is a difference between speculating and investing. Overstretching yourself and making decisions without basing on data is not investing, it is speculating.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Unregistered View Post
Your analogy of bulls charging towards a cliff edge is a biased one. How about bulls charging towards an escape route out of a burning valley?

If you wait awhile till the fog gets clearer, you may find that the bulls have already escaped from the death valley and the exit has collapsed, while you are trapped in HDB land forever. It is a long way back-up from down there.
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