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  #991 (permalink)  
Old 28-11-2011, 01:23 PM
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Helping people to survive retrenchments is totally different from helping people to pay their mortages, my friend!

People who lose their jobs may get help from the government to go for so-call subsidsied training funded by the government....but do they not need to eat and pay mortages even when they are out of jobs???

I dont think this is considered " preparing the ground for hard landing" ???
If people lose jobs, will property prices come down?

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  #992 (permalink)  
Old 28-11-2011, 02:01 PM
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Property prices are determined by transaction benchmarkers and will come down if sellers are buyers agree to transact at prices lower than the existing market price.

When people lose their jobs:

1. From a home-owner perspective, he/she that have lost his/her job may become unable to finance the housing loan. This could be a second/investment property or even their primary occupied property (as savings deplete, they may decide to downgrade). They may need to liquidate their assets to obtain cash to attend to their other cashflow needs. If enough home-owners lose their jobs, (i.e. in the case of a economic downturn), and if they are unable to find a replacement job the ST (for the same reasons as described in an economic downturn), they may find that they need to lower their asking prices in order to move units. This as a result of the need to dispose of the asset fast, or because there is simply alot of home-owners in similiar situations (i.e. lost their job) wanting to sell off their flats in the market.

2. From a home-seeker perspective, the loss of jobs can affect the purchasing power of investors / owner-occupiers. If enough of these people are affected, this can lead to a fall in demand for houses. Ceteris Paribus, things being equal, this could lead to an excess demand over supply situation which would push prices down.

Thus in summary, if enough people lose their jobs for a significant period of time, housing prices do come down.

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If people lose jobs, will property prices come down?


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  #993 (permalink)  
Old 28-11-2011, 02:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Unregistered View Post
Property prices are determined by transaction benchmarkers and will come down if sellers are buyers agree to transact at prices lower than the existing market price.

When people lose their jobs:

1. From a home-owner perspective, he/she that have lost his/her job may become unable to finance the housing loan. This could be a second/investment property or even their primary occupied property (as savings deplete, they may decide to downgrade). They may need to liquidate their assets to obtain cash to attend to their other cashflow needs. If enough home-owners lose their jobs, (i.e. in the case of a economic downturn), and if they are unable to find a replacement job the ST (for the same reasons as described in an economic downturn), they may find that they need to lower their asking prices in order to move units. This as a result of the need to dispose of the asset fast, or because there is simply alot of home-owners in similiar situations (i.e. lost their job) wanting to sell off their flats in the market.

2. From a home-seeker perspective, the loss of jobs can affect the purchasing power of investors / owner-occupiers. If enough of these people are affected, this can lead to a fall in demand for houses. Ceteris Paribus, things being equal, this could lead to an excess demand over supply situation which would push prices down.

Thus in summary, if enough people lose their jobs for a significant period of time, housing prices do come down.
I disagree. The property landscape has changed to an extent that even if there's a local recession and major retrenchments, there is enough demand from rich foreign investors to prop up property prices. I firmly believe prices will continue on an uptrend. And once the local recession is over, the trajectory will be even steeper.

The fact is prices are still too affordable at current levels. Moreover, HDB is building more flats to cater to the poorer young generation.

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  #994 (permalink)  
Old 28-11-2011, 04:32 PM
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I disagree. The property landscape has changed to an extent that even if there's a local recession and major retrenchments, there is enough demand from rich foreign investors to prop up property prices. I firmly believe prices will continue on an uptrend. And once the local recession is over, the trajectory will be even steeper.

The fact is prices are still too affordable at current levels. Moreover, HDB is building more flats to cater to the poorer young generation.
Your argument have no logic at all, you must be one of those "follow the crowd" type who have sinked all your fortune in property and hope that prices would never fall.

Property market, like the equity market and economy, goes through boom and bust cycles, what goes up must come down just like law of gravity. The reason foreigners are still picking up properties here and propping up demand and prices is that global markets are still awash in liquidity created by expansionary ECONOMIC policies of governments worldwide to counter the 2008 financial crisis. Now it is pay back time, liquidity is almost certain to dry up in Europe in a couple of months with so many EU countries in budget deficits, unless EU central Bank start printing alot of money which it would not do so.

This liquidity crisis would definitely blow over to Asia, and all the rich Asian investors you see snapping up houses in Singapore in the last couple of years would certainly need to dispose of their assets here in order to secure funding for their own businesses back home and other funding requirements. If enough of these guys, who dont even reside here and therefore do not need the roofs over their heads, start to do that, prices would be going down for a long long time..and alot....
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  #995 (permalink)  
Old 28-11-2011, 04:46 PM
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Originally Posted by Unregistered View Post
Your argument have no logic at all, you must be one of those "follow the crowd" type who have sinked all your fortune in property and hope that prices would never fall.

Property market, like the equity market and economy, goes through boom and bust cycles, what goes up must come down just like law of gravity. The reason foreigners are still picking up properties here and propping up demand and prices is that global markets are still awash in liquidity created by expansionary ECONOMIC policies of governments worldwide to counter the 2008 financial crisis. Now it is pay back time, liquidity is almost certain to dry up in Europe in a couple of months with so many EU countries in budget deficits, unless EU central Bank start printing alot of money which it would not do so.

This liquidity crisis would definitely blow over to Asia, and all the rich Asian investors you see snapping up houses in Singapore in the last couple of years would certainly need to dispose of their assets here in order to secure funding for their own businesses back home and other funding requirements. If enough of these guys, who dont even reside here and therefore do not need the roofs over their heads, start to do that, prices would be going down for a long long time..and alot....
You are too logical. The market is sentiment driven, and politics has a big part to play too.

ECB will print lots of money and we will have another 10 more good years. More good years.

As we speak, ECB is already buying up loads of Italian bonds.

Printing money is easy, so they will surely do it. It's a magic bullet they will use time and again. Everyone wins.
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  #996 (permalink)  
Old 28-11-2011, 05:10 PM
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Property is just another asset class. If the FSSTI move in cycles, why not property prices?

URA publishes a private property price index (commonly called the URA PPI). If you plot the PPI vs FSSTI, you will note a strong historical correlation plus a lagging effect. PPI trails the FSSTI by 3-6 quarters.

FSSTI has already corrected sharply in recent months to 1600+ levels. PPI curve is showing a plateau. In 2009 we saw a sharp correction in private property prices. What is different now versus 2009? Foreigners still make up a large proportion of the SG private market then and now. In addition, our MND have been set a KPI to cap price increases. We had already adjusted our S-Pass policies post election. This shows that our government is feeling the heat from Singaporeans on issues such as housing & immigration. Recently, the papers reported a rise in CN buying up SG property. This is the sort of news info that will cause unhappiness amongst Singaporeans. The SG Govt have already revised the GDP outlook for 2012. Recent reports have indicated various sectors cutting back on staff. If property prices continue to inch up, you still think the MND will not do anything more drastic policy wise? BTO supply is ramping up. Private condo completions are concentrated in 2012-2013. Rents of recently completed units are already falling. Prices are flattening. The major brokerage houses are calling for 20-30% mass market price correction 2012-2014. Better be safe than sorry. Stop speculating.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Unregistered View Post
You are too logical. The market is sentiment driven, and politics has a big part to play too.

ECB will print lots of money and we will have another 10 more good years. More good years.

As we speak, ECB is already buying up loads of Italian bonds.

Printing money is easy, so they will surely do it. It's a magic bullet they will use time and again. Everyone wins.
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  #997 (permalink)  
Old 28-11-2011, 05:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Unregistered View Post
Property is just another asset class. If the FSSTI move in cycles, why not property prices?

URA publishes a private property price index (commonly called the URA PPI). If you plot the PPI vs FSSTI, you will note a strong historical correlation plus a lagging effect. PPI trails the FSSTI by 3-6 quarters.

FSSTI has already corrected sharply in recent months to 1600+ levels. PPI curve is showing a plateau. In 2009 we saw a sharp correction in private property prices. What is different now versus 2009? Foreigners still make up a large proportion of the SG private market then and now. In addition, our MND have been set a KPI to cap price increases. We had already adjusted our S-Pass policies post election. This shows that our government is feeling the heat from Singaporeans on issues such as housing & immigration. Recently, the papers reported a rise in CN buying up SG property. This is the sort of news info that will cause unhappiness amongst Singaporeans. The SG Govt have already revised the GDP outlook for 2012. Recent reports have indicated various sectors cutting back on staff. If property prices continue to inch up, you still think the MND will not do anything more drastic policy wise? BTO supply is ramping up. Private condo completions are concentrated in 2012-2013. Rents of recently completed units are already falling. Prices are flattening. The major brokerage houses are calling for 20-30% mass market price correction 2012-2014. Better be safe than sorry. Stop speculating.
Japan had boomed for 2 decades before crashing. Singapore will continue to boom for another decade.

The "major" brokerage houses are just Nostradamus wannabes. How good are they in their past predictions?

Printing money is easy. Asset price inflation is the new trend for another 10 years.
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  #998 (permalink)  
Old 28-11-2011, 05:50 PM
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The irony is you are playing Nostradamus yourself.

The only difference is that the brokerage houses substantiate their views with facts and figures.

Whilst not always correct, they spent considerable effort to gather, study and opine on data. They offer their views responsibly.

Truth of the matter, noone can be 100% sure what happens tomorrow.

Yet, one should not be misleading others by making sweeping statements without doing proper research and providing accurate data.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Unregistered View Post
Japan had boomed for 2 decades before crashing. Singapore will continue to boom for another decade.

The "major" brokerage houses are just Nostradamus wannabes. How good are they in their past predictions?

Printing money is easy. Asset price inflation is the new trend for another 10 years.
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  #999 (permalink)  
Old 28-11-2011, 05:57 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Unregistered View Post
The irony is you are playing Nostradamus yourself.

The only difference is that the brokerage houses substantiate their views with facts and figures.

Whilst not always correct, they spent considerable effort to gather, study and opine on data. They offer their views responsibly.

Truth of the matter, noone can be 100% sure what happens tomorrow.

Yet, one should not be misleading others by making sweeping statements without doing proper research and providing accurate data.
How much do you know about these mini Nostradamuses? Are you 100% sure they are ethical in what they do? Haven't you heard of the case where BB investment banks advising their clients on one hand and betting against them on the other?

I'm just an anonymous coward. There's no need for anyone to believe in what I say. However, I find it extremely profitable to bet against whatever those mini Nostradamuses forecast. But caveat emptor, one has to be very nimble in this game.
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  #1000 (permalink)  
Old 28-11-2011, 05:57 PM
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Quote wikipedia

"The Japanese asset price bubble was an economic bubble in Japan from 1986 to 1991, in which real estate and stock prices were greatly inflated. The bubble's collapse lasted for more than a decade with stock prices initially bottoming in 2003"

Since when did a JP property boom occur for 2 decades?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Unregistered View Post
Japan had boomed for 2 decades before crashing. Singapore will continue to boom for another decade.

The "major" brokerage houses are just Nostradamus wannabes. How good are they in their past predictions?

Printing money is easy. Asset price inflation is the new trend for another 10 years.
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