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  #201 (permalink)  
Old 26-02-2014, 06:54 PM
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No housing bubble in Singapore: Citigroup

Mortgages of $203b only 24.2% of property values in Q3, says lender

The Business Times - February 25, 2014
[SINGAPORE] Citigroup Inc said that it's "encouraging" that Singapore's household debt tied to the real estate market is only a fraction of property values, downplaying concerns of a bubble.

Singapore's $203 billion of mortgages amounted to 24.2 per cent of the value of residential properties in the third quarter, according to Citigroup's analysis of government data. The lender, the biggest employer among foreign banks on the island with 10,000 employees, offers housing and car loans as well as credit cards and other banking services.

"Nobody has walked me through the mechanics of a total crash of the real estate market for it to be compelling," Michael Zink, who heads Citigroup's operations in South-east Asia, said in an interview in Singapore on Feb 20. "Ninety per cent of households live in a home that they own, so where's the bubble?"

Singapore's fourth-quarter home prices slid 0.9 per cent, falling for the first time in almost two years as the government introduced more taxes and restrictions to widen a campaign that began in 2009 to curb speculation. The central bank said last month that new residential loans have declined and household balance sheets are strong, following a Forbes article that said the city is headed for an "Iceland-style meltdown".

Concerns of a property bubble in Singapore came after Singapore's home prices rose in the past five years to a record amid low interest rates. Residential values jumped 61 per cent since mid-2009, when they were at their lowest in 21/2 years following the 2008 global financial crisis.

After introducing taxes on property sales, the government added them to homebuyers and imposed mortgage limits. In June, the central bank also said that financial institutions granting property loans need to ensure that individuals' monthly repayments on all debt don't exceed 60 per cent of income.

Mr Zink said that Singapore's housing market is unique because the majority of citizens live in government-built homes, where many families have already paid off their mortgages. About 82 per cent of Singaporeans live in these so-called Housing & Development Board apartments, according to the housing authority's website.

"So if it goes up and down a little bit, for an asset they can't sell, does it really affect them much? I don't think so," said Singapore-based Mr Zink, 55, who's lived in Asian cities including Jakarta and Guangzhou for 17 years.

Singapore's biggest bank and developer said in the past two weeks that they expect home prices to fall this year. That drop may also drive up the ratio between loans and the property values.

DBS Group Holdings, also South-east Asia's largest lender, said on Feb 14 that there will probably be a 10-15 per cent reduction in home prices in the nation this year. DBS's mortgage portfolio has been stress-tested to withstand a 30 per cent drop, chief executive officer Piyush Gupta said.

Lim Ming Yan, CEO of CapitaLand Ltd, the region's biggest developer, said last week that the government may ease some of its curbs if home prices fall as much as 10 per cent.

Singapore Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam said in the nation's Budget speech last Friday that it's too early for the government to start relaxing its measures, given the run-up in prices in the past four years.

"We are not engineering a hard landing," he said in Parliament. "Our cooling measures have been aimed at moderating the market, so as to prevent property prices from getting too far out of line with incomes."

CapitaLand also said that housing demand is expected to "further moderate" with the curb on borrowing levels and concerns that interest rates will rise.

The loan restriction in June "is the silver bullet the government has been looking for", said Nicholas Mak, executive director and head of research at SLP International Property Consultants in Singapore. "The potential for a bubble has been greatly deflated."

Mr Mak estimated that 65,000 private homes could be completed between 2014 and 2016.

The housing authority will release another 24,300 new apartments this year, it said in a January statement. These homes, which cost less than those sold by private developers, are typically offered with a 99-year lease.

"There's a reason why the government has released a lot of new land," Mr Zink said. "There's underlying demand for that segment of housing."

Citigroup, which also offers private banking services in Singapore, said that the net worth of Singapore residents have risen 38 per cent over four years, based on its analysis of government data. The country's households had $874.7 billion in financial assets at the end of the third quarter, eclipsing the $837.9 billion they hold in real estate assets, it said.

"There are a lot of households in this country that are financially very stable," Mr Zink said. - Bloomberg

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  #202 (permalink)  
Old 26-02-2014, 07:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Unregistered View Post
You know, the strange thing is when you are looking to buy, you will feel that the prices havent drop, at best they are not moving up as fast as they were previously.

To say that prices will crash or the crash has already started is way premature.

The current situation is not like in 2008/09 where the world economy was collapsing due to the US sub-prime problem. Then all the doom sayers were predicting the mother of crash. Many people the world over (S'poreans included) lost their jobs. But you know what? Many people sold off their homes hoping to jump back in to scoop up properties at rock bottom prices. My tenant was one of them. He waited and waited. Property prices did drop, but not to the extent that he expected. The next moment he realised, the property prices were on the uptrend again. He panicked and quickly grabbed a unit at a higher price than he would have liked. Still he counted himself lucky.

Today's situation is all home made. The gahmen is engineering a soft landing through a series of CM, TSDR and MSR. Though they didnt say how much reduction in price they are looking for, it is not in their interest to cause a collapse. It does not serve anybody any good. One interesting thing to note is that developers are still bidding aggressively for land - how then can they launch the new property at lower prices? Also we are experiencing full employment, economy is chugging along happily. With the CM, TDSR, MSR speculators have long been weeded out. People who bought properties later with the CM, TSDR and MSR in place are not taking excessive loans - this only means that they are able to hold on to the property for long term.

How much drop then could one realistically expect? Gurus have been predicting around 15% drop, but we have to wait and see. The window of opportunity will be small, because the gahmen could then step to remove or relax some of the measures, TDSR and MSR. Afterall, it is all home made factors.
Actually, I have a wager with that particular owner in end 2015. So wait and see is the right word to use. But some factors are beyond SG gov, inc:
1) Interest rate is trending up. Interest rates and property prices usually move in reverse direction. Question now is how soon and how fast.
2) China's bubble economy i.e. infamous ghost towns, abandoned projects etc - no one knows when it would pop. Just a matter of time
3) Unlike HDB, significant foreign ownership in private properties. Matter of time they would shift out to pour into the recovering US/Europe property markets.

The above factors are inevitable - question now is just matter of time.

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  #203 (permalink)  
Old 26-02-2014, 09:17 PM
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Lol, the most convenient escape clause - "matter of time". But you already set a date - Dec 2015.

Actually if the gahmen had not stepped in with so many CM and the TDSR and MSR, and bumping up the HDB supply, the chances of a real bubble bursting would have been higher. Now it may never happen.

With the measures, they have sieved out speculators, they also can relax/remove the measures when required. As for the large numbers of HDB flats coming on stream, the gahmen can well afford to leave them unsold. No 99 years limit applies when not sold.

Actually I foresee another scenario happening. With the huge investment in infra and housing, the gahmen may positioning for more foreigners to come in. The population will soon wise up to the fact that a small indigenous population simply cannot keep the economy going. They will be the ones clamoring the gahmen to bring more foreigners in.

Quote:
Originally Posted by cslee View Post
Actually, I have a wager with that particular owner in end 2015. So wait and see is the right word to use. But some factors are beyond SG gov, inc:
1) Interest rate is trending up. Interest rates and property prices usually move in reverse direction. Question now is how soon and how fast.
2) China's bubble economy i.e. infamous ghost towns, abandoned projects etc - no one knows when it would pop. Just a matter of time
3) Unlike HDB, significant foreign ownership in private properties. Matter of time they would shift out to pour into the recovering US/Europe property markets.

The above factors are inevitable - question now is just matter of time.



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  #204 (permalink)  
Old 26-02-2014, 09:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Unregistered View Post
Lol, the most convenient escape clause - "matter of time". But you already set a date - Dec 2015.

Actually if the gahmen had not stepped in with so many CM and the TDSR and MSR, and bumping up the HDB supply, the chances of a real bubble bursting would have been higher. Now it may never happen.

With the measures, they have sieved out speculators, they also can relax/remove the measures when required. As for the large numbers of HDB flats coming on stream, the gahmen can well afford to leave them unsold. No 99 years limit applies when not sold.

Actually I foresee another scenario happening. With the huge investment in infra and housing, the gahmen may positioning for more foreigners to come in. The population will soon wise up to the fact that a small indigenous population simply cannot keep the economy going. They will be the ones clamoring the gahmen to bring more foreigners in.
I din say end 2015 is the date but it should be the clear turning point for all to see by then. Don't forget when our next GE is. What do you think of the chance of SG gov letting in more foreigners? Furthermore, given more opportunities in recovering US/Europe, you think those rich foreigners still interested in SG?
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  #205 (permalink)  
Old 18-06-2014, 06:06 PM
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More like the TOP 10% of property agents earn alot. No doubt the top 1% or less can make 6 figures a month, top 10% 5 figures, next 10% probably an above average salary while the next 30% earn average or even below average. the below 50% struggle to make anything or drop out.
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  #206 (permalink)  
Old 24-08-2015, 04:44 PM
Alex Lim - ERA
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Default Real Estate Career With ERA

If you have a strong desire to succeed and enjoy meeting new people, then real estate is the exact career path for you to pursue.

The Real Estate business not only provides for those who need the flexibility of time, it is also an additional income stream for you and your family, even for the part timers.

Everyone will have a taste of it's rewards and challenges. Everyone has a different skill and talent, and that's why it's going to be a different experience for everyone.

I would like to say this, we should try something different in order to get a different result. For better or worst, some things just need to change!

For those who wish to explore more opportunities in the Real Estate industry, please feel free to contact me.
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  #207 (permalink)  
Old 23-02-2016, 11:40 AM
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Any sad story that agents don get much income?
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  #208 (permalink)  
Old 23-02-2016, 02:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Unregistered View Post
Any sad story that agents don get much income?
hxxp://.straitstimes.com/business/property/hard-hit-property-agents-in-singapore-becoming-uber-drivers

any 100% sales job like insurance or property sure got sad stories one, very volatile job and completely dependent upon your own ability. can make $0 can make a million.
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  #209 (permalink)  
Old 23-02-2016, 07:15 PM
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So is now a gd time to be a agent?
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  #210 (permalink)  
Old 28-09-2017, 12:38 PM
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not so much of property agent thread here .....
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