Expect the Worst Recession in Singapore History and Property Will Crash - Salary.sg Forums
Salary.sg Forums  

Go Back   Salary.sg Forums > The Salary.sg Discussion Forums: > Investments and Net Worth

Investments and Net Worth Talk all about money making exploits, shares, property, building net worth and retirement matters




Expect the Worst Recession in Singapore History and Property Will Crash

 Citibank Cash Back Card - up to $350 cash back* - Click to Apply Now 
Reply
 
Thread Tools
  #1 (permalink)  
Old 14-01-2009, 03:33 PM
Salary.sg
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Expect the Worst Recession in Singapore History and Property Will Crash

So says a shocking Citi report on Singapore property.

Citi expects our GDP to contract by 2.8% this year, "making it the most severe recession in Singapore history."

As for property prices, the report also says that a crash is imminent (see related article: Property Must Crash).

Condominiums in the mid-tier segment is expected to have a price decline of a further "35% from current levels, or ... 45% from their peaks", with luxury condos faring worse.

But mass market prices are "likely to hover around the 1998 lows rather than the (lower) 2003 levels." [Editor's note: mass market prices are generally lower in 2003 than in 1998 even though URA price index for the overall market shows otherwise.]

On condos sold on Deferred Payment Scheme (DPS), which was suddenly withdrawn in late 2007, Citi has this to say:
Quote:
"We are increasingly concerned about projects launched close to the peak of the market and sold on deferred payments. ... With valuers and banks taking a more cautious stance on the market, buyers who have purchased these units as investments are likely to face (1) lower loan-to-valuation (LTV) ratio of 70% or less for investors; and (2) significantly lower valuation from purchase on the back of falling prices."
The report goes on to list selected condo projects that will obtain TOP in 2009.

Of the 25 projects listed, 1 has a price change of 0% (Casa Merah) and 5 have a price change of -5% to -11% (Tierra Vue, Ardmore II, RiverGate, Grand Duchess at St Patrick's, and One-North Residences).

This means that 6 out of the 25 condo developments are now selling at launch price or lower!

Fortunately for some investors and owners, the following projects are still sitting on double-digit profits: One Jervois, Carabelle, ClementiWoods Condominium, The Inspira, Imperial Heights, The Centris, Newton One, The Esta, The Beacon, and Tribeca.

But for how long?

Will we hear of more stories like the couple who got stuck with property?

http://www.salary.sg/2009/expect-the...ty-will-crash/

Reply With Quote
  #2 (permalink)  
Old 14-01-2009, 08:07 PM
veerapan--
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default 3847

I really cant wait for property prices to crash. That makes the two of us..

Reply With Quote
  #3 (permalink)  
Old 15-01-2009, 02:08 PM
Want-See-Report--
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default 3852

Do you have a link to this Citi report?

Reply With Quote
  #4 (permalink)  
Old 15-01-2009, 02:33 PM
Volunteer--
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default 3853

I'll volunteer one link to the said report:
http://www.docstoc.com/docs/3508437/SG-Ppty-090112
Reply With Quote
  #5 (permalink)  
Old 15-01-2009, 04:39 PM
for how long--
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default 3855

>But for how long?
The Centris is already in trouble, going by the aggressive help they're giving to the DPS buyers- mortgage roadshows and all. See yesterday's Straits Times back page.
Reply With Quote
  #6 (permalink)  
Old 02-02-2009, 01:58 PM
Justwanttostayinajob--
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default 3962

I have been praying hard for property market to crash. Hopefully price can crash another 40% or more. I sincerely hope so.
Reply With Quote

  #7 (permalink)  
Old 02-02-2009, 02:18 PM
solarius--
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default 3963

my friend...there's a difference between being greedy and being realistic...being greedy doesn't only mean wanting more $$$


SG Bus Timing App
SG Bus Timing App - the best bus app - available on iPhone


SGX Stocks Android App - check share prices
SGX Stocks [Android] App - check latest share prices on the go


SGX Stocks for iPad - check latest Singapore share prices
SGX Stocks [iPad] app
| SGX Stocks [iPhone] app
Reply With Quote
  #8 (permalink)  
Old 02-02-2009, 05:00 PM
dontmakemelaugh--
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default 3965

I have been hunting for a decent condo, but what you say of an impending price crash is simply not there...its a tug of war out there
Reply With Quote
  #9 (permalink)  
Old 04-02-2009, 10:19 AM
Observer--
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default 3974

I think extreme views are not the way to go here. Yes, property prices are likely to go down but the use of the word "crash" is too extreme. It's probably more pertinent to talk about the extent (or "how much") that prices would fall. And even then, we need to be able to clearly analyze private property prices for condo and landed houses differently. Generally, all the talk about falling private property prices are with reference to private condos - those in prime areas (the so-called luxury condos) are likely to be the hardest hit as they are more prone to speculation and investment (and as such, their prices are quite highly inflated) while those in the non-prime areas (suburban condos) are affected to a lesser extent as they are mostly purchased for personal stay (assuming that they were not bought at exhorbitant prices in the first place). At the end of the day, everything - from property to stocks to cars - is subjected to the logic of economics...demand and supply...willing buyer and willing seller... If a seller has holding power, the seller will not sell if the price is not right - all things being equal, home owners are likely to have holding power more than speculators...this is the reason why the luxury condos are hardest hit...the speculators who cannot hold will sell their units at a much lower price... On the other hand, home owners of suburban condos do not have to lower their asking price (if they are in no hurry to sell). With the above in mind, we still have to factor in the age of the property, whether it is leasehold or freehold, the condition, etc. If you are buying a brand new condo from a developer, again the question is whether they are able to hold onto their units if their asking price is not met...big developers with holding power are less likely to lower their asking price beyond a certain psf limit...they would rather then try to lease out the units instead or delay launch/construction. Also, the government is now trying to help them out by looking at things like property tax relief etc. IMHO, it'd be those smaller developers with lower holding power that would be more vulnerable.

With regards to private landed homes, the prices are less volatile as most have been purchased for personal stay. To be sure, their prices would also be affected by falling private condo prices as well but because of the element of land, landed private homes would not fall as drastically (especially given the scarcity of land in Sg). Again, with the above in mind, we still have to consider if the landed property is leasehold or freehold - just like leasehold condo, leasehold landed is likely to lose value over time although the rate of depreciation might not be as high as that of leasehold condo.
Reply With Quote
  #10 (permalink)  
Old 04-02-2009, 11:36 AM
flaw--
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default 3975

Dear Observer, Your holding power argument can be applied to stocks and shares too, but the fact that the stock market has already crashed more than 50% shows there's a flaw in such arguments. Besides holding power, many many other factors come into play such as demand, supply, jobs, income, bankruptcies, failed investments, foreign investments, sentiments, etc etc. It is well known that the property market lags behind the stock market. And we ARE already in the beginning of a property crash.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Bookmarks

« Previous Thread | Next Thread »
Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Exploit the Recession Salary.sg Investments and Net Worth 21 22-11-2013 10:06 PM
Market crash in 2009: Clemen Salary.sg Investments and Net Worth 6 16-06-2009 10:24 AM
Property Must Crash (see graph) Salary.sg Investments and Net Worth 26 04-02-2009 10:07 AM
Check your credit history Salary.sg Investments and Net Worth 7 03-12-2008 01:48 PM
Singapore in Technical Recession Salary.sg Investments and Net Worth 4 10-10-2008 06:23 PM

» 30 Recent Threads
Roles in accenture singapore ( 1 2 3... Last Page)
380 Replies, 251,064 Views
Factual Local Bank Salaries - DBS... ( 1 2 3... Last Page)
160 Replies, 76,356 Views
Queries about Cpib application ( 1 2 3... Last Page)
1,090 Replies, 500,372 Views
Compare civil service salary ( 1 2 3... Last Page)
10,112 Replies, 5,588,197 Views
Submitting My Resume To ST... ( 1 2 3)
21 Replies, 22,352 Views
Tax ( 1 2)
14 Replies, 3,571 Views
Lawyer Salary ( 1 2 3... Last Page)
7,623 Replies, 2,614,943 Views
MINDEF DXO (All FAQ on it) ( 1 2 3... Last Page)
3,298 Replies, 1,909,114 Views
DBS Management Associate Program... ( 1 2 3... Last Page)
1,787 Replies, 272,861 Views
Ceca
2 Replies, 211 Views
Changi Airport Group ( 1 2 3... Last Page)
378 Replies, 334,986 Views
Career as Teacher ( 1 2 3... Last Page)
2,668 Replies, 1,608,688 Views
Feeling helpless, need advice... ( 1 2)
11 Replies, 917 Views
Anyone jobless for a long time... ( 1 2 3... Last Page)
2,916 Replies, 1,085,987 Views
Anyone being hired during covid... ( 1 2)
19 Replies, 1,582 Views
anyone working at NCS ? ( 1 2 3... Last Page)
395 Replies, 288,007 Views
How much do you earn and save? ( 1 2 3... Last Page)
103 Replies, 14,234 Views
ST Electronics ( 1 2 3... Last Page)
688 Replies, 211,989 Views
Mid-Year Civil Servant Bonus 2019 ( 1 2 3... Last Page)
1,633 Replies, 784,289 Views
Civil Svc/ Statboard - Typical... ( 1 2 3... Last Page)
2,191 Replies, 971,634 Views
What's the graduate officer... ( 1 2 3... Last Page)
54 Replies, 13,177 Views
Possible to earn passive income... ( 1 2)
15 Replies, 4,170 Views
Anyone working in NTU... ( 1 2 3... Last Page)
91 Replies, 92,846 Views
AML/Compliance/KYC professionals... ( 1 2 3... Last Page)
1,380 Replies, 565,226 Views
Please Share DBS Average Months... ( 1 2)
17 Replies, 3,228 Views
Sharing my Passive and Active...
2 Replies, 557 Views
where can i buy nintendo stock?
6 Replies, 3,441 Views
[advice] Recruitment agency... ( 1 2)
15 Replies, 1,968 Views
HR Career advice
3 Replies, 1,457 Views
High Finance Thread ( 1 2 3... Last Page)
89 Replies, 15,614 Views
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.2



All times are GMT +8. The time now is 08:44 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.5
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Content Relevant URLs by vBSEO 3.3.2