On Margin Call for Property

Originally Posted by Unregistered

It's hard to compare with 1997. In 1997-8, we had the Asian Financial Crisis, China wasn't strong yet, and US and Europe were still booming. Now, it's the reverse - that's why some are arguing that Asia will boom while the west crashes.

Whatever you do, just be careful with what you do - prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

I totally DISAGREED with this statement that Asia will boom while the west crashes (not picking you, just like to state a fact). If you had been reading the news, you will know that the dependant factor is still there. China and the whole of Asia is still super dependant on US and Europe for growth. Clue: just look at the export numbers/PMI from China and the current US economic.

Needless to say, prior to the 2008 financial crisis, we got a whole bunch of analysts from IB(jokers) saying Oh China wont crash becoz they got a huge population to support their growth etc etc. Yeah right if thats the case then why is China launching their own 1 trillion yuan rescue package during the crisis?!!!

If China is still SO dependant on US and Europe, where does tiny Sinkie go? Of coz down the drain. Just like our old Lee says before dont listen to all those rubbish that we can support ourselves, with just slightly over 5m population, what support do u have? Each of us can own 2 ferraris to support the growth?

Word of advise. Hang on to your jobs and start asking your boss out for drinks to build relationship so that in times of recession you wont be the first to be out of the door. (speaking from an ordinary sinkie)

[Wiseman1]

Originally Posted by Unregistered

It's hard to compare with 1997. In 1997-8, we had the Asian Financial Crisis, China wasn't strong yet, and US and Europe were still booming. Now, it's the reverse - that's why some are arguing that Asia will boom while the west crashes.

Whatever you do, just be careful with what you do - prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

I would say get real and face the facts - alot of Asian "chauvinists" like to believe and propagate the view that now is the Asian century and Asia would grow while US/EUR would tank, nothing is further from the truth. The world is much more interconnected now than ever, there is no such thing as the East keeps growing comfortably while the West is suffering. Asia cannot survive if US/EUR stop growing economically and stop buying Asia's exports.

China, often tipped to be an engine of growth for Asia, is dependent wholly on churning out exports to the West. She herself is a bubble in the making, no country can keep growing at 10% YOY for 20 years at a stretch, she is no different. The bubble must ultimately burst. Discount by at least 30% whatever rosy numbers you are seeing coming out of China, these guys are masters in cooking the books.

For those who insist the property market and prices are fundmentally sound, well believe at your own risk.....no one is forcing you to think otherwise.

I would sit on the sidelines and see how the "exciting" drama unfolds when interest rates spike and people start to default on mortage....hahaha

Originally Posted by Wiseman1

I would say get real and face the facts - alot of Asian "chauvinists" like to believe and propagate the view that now is the Asian century and Asia would grow while US/EUR would tank, nothing is further from the truth. The world is much more interconnected now than ever, there is no such thing as the East keeps growing comfortably while the West is suffering. Asia cannot survive if US/EUR stop growing economically and stop buying Asia's exports.

China, often tipped to be an engine of growth for Asia, is dependent wholly on churning out exports to the West. She herself is a bubble in the making, no country can keep growing at 10% YOY for 20 years at a stretch, she is no different. The bubble must ultimately burst. Discount by at least 30% whatever rosy numbers you are seeing coming out of China, these guys are masters in cooking the books.

For those who insist the property market and prices are fundmentally sound, well believe at your own risk.....no one is forcing you to think otherwise.

I would sit on the sidelines and see how the "exciting" drama unfolds when interest rates spike and people start to default on mortage....hahaha

We all know the theoretical "fundamentals". We all know there are cycles. But the fact remains that China and Asian cities have indeed produced phenomenal growth while the west tanked in the last 2 years.

The key question is "when will all this stop?"

Nobody knows.

Like someone said, the market can remain irrational longer than you can insist on holding cash. And like someone else said, those who did not invest in property have already lost out to those who did and have cashed out.

Just be patient, recession will be coming, it all in the cycle, and while that happens, property prices will knock down by 20%. Observed that recession come every few years ( 1998, 2001,2003,2009) and hit the property market hard.

Singapore is an open economy, no way that Singapore will escape if either of US or Europe goes into recession.

The worst scenario is that US goes into stagflation, which is possible that inflation shoot up as the world lose confidence in USD after endless printing. The Fed will have no choice but to hike the interest rates. Coupled with low economic growth, this will be pretty bloody.

What margin call and market crash, please...............................

Look at the current bidding of the developer, are they not bidding? May not be so aggressive, but things are still moving. Come on.

Wait till the market crash, I think my grandson will graduate.

Do you think Government will allow such things to happen, so many ppl buying up BTO, EC and building so many condo (99 yrs)? You think Government wants social unrest.

The most price will maintain as it is, it won't crash. You guys must be crazy. Overseas buyers are snapping up our local properties, why they wait for you to snatch when market crash, crazy.....

Originally Posted by Margin call yr head

What margin call and market crash, please...............................

Look at the current bidding of the developer, are they not bidding? May not be so aggressive, but things are still moving. Come on.

Wait till the market crash, I think my grandson will graduate.

Do you think Government will allow such things to happen, so many ppl buying up BTO, EC and building so many condo (99 yrs)? You think Government wants social unrest.

The most price will maintain as it is, it won't crash. You guys must be crazy. Overseas buyers are snapping up our local properties, why they wait for you to snatch when market crash, crazy.....

Price definitely will not crash to dirt cheap unless war, social unrest, disease...

But correction is the right word.

Maybe drop max 50% from the current price. Is this consider crash or correction??

It happened before 2007 for those who purchased high price in 1997. And happened in 2008 for those who bought in 2007.

< 10% consolidation
10%-20% correction
>20% crash

Originally Posted by Margin call yr head

What margin call and market crash, please...............................

Agree this thread should go to into hibernation. US US$2 trillion QE pushed our property market up by 45% between March 2009 (SRPI 110) and Sep 2011 (SRPI 160). Yesterday's EURO 1 trillion (US$1.4 trillion) should push it up by another 30%, proportionately.

The only crowd that beat the iPhone 4S crowd was the Trivelis showroom crowd yesterday.

Originally Posted by Unregistered

Agree this thread should go to into hibernation. US US$2 trillion QE pushed our property market up by 45% between March 2009 (SRPI 110) and Sep 2011 (SRPI 160). Yesterday's EURO 1 trillion (US$1.4 trillion) should push it up by another 30%, proportionately.

The only crowd that beat the iPhone 4S crowd was the Trivelis showroom crowd yesterday.

nothing will change as long as interest rates stay below <2 pct.

Originally Posted by Unregistered

nothing will change as long as interest rates stay below <2 pct.

Looks like a sure-win way to make money.

How many condo units are you buying?