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-   -   How much savings do you have? (https://forums.salary.sg/investments-net-worth/1199-how-much-savings-do-you-have.html)

Unregistered 05-12-2013 08:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Unregistered (Post 46042)
You really think our gahmen so screwed as to miscalculate the housing supply and demand by so much meh? Suspect they positioning for population growth to 6.9m first then to 8m in the longer term.

If there is any property price fall, quickly go in and grab some before it shoots up again.

They miscalculated countless times dude.

Unregistered 05-12-2013 09:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Unregistered (Post 46043)
They miscalculated countless times dude.

I already sold my BTO flat, big amount of cash in the bank. Waiting for market to crash so that I can buy a Bukit Timah condo at 40% of current price.

If they don't open the gates to more FTs, my dream of buying a high class condo will come true. So happy.

Unregistered 06-12-2013 09:42 AM

Property is for stay, not for speculation. You should work towards paying off your mortgage as fast as possible. The property market today is very exuberant, there are stupid people who over leverage, when prices crash, these stupid fools will blame everyone except themselves. There are also people who encourage others to over leverage, these are irresponsible evil doers.

With so many youngsters who illegally rent out their new BTO flats, they make the oversupply situation worse, crashing property prices further.

dives 07-12-2013 01:40 AM

Hi AJ,

No worries, I won't say you are completely out of the woods if situations go bad. But you have some safety net. Lets break it down to 3 different scenarios

1. Property market correct by 10 - 15%, Rental drops by 30%. You are safe in this region because you can lower rental by 50% and still have your safety net (savings) those who borrow on a dime will be impacted

2. Property Market corrects by 35 - 45%, Rental drops by 50%. This is where you will be at risk, banks may ask you to top up on your loan and that could be an upfront of a few 100K which would immediately force sale your assets. However generally if you pay your loans on time they will not do so but go after the defaulters

3. Property Market corrects by 50 - 60% - Worldwide depression scenario. At this stage only those with tons of cash will make it, even the normal families who moderately leverage will in deep crap. I.e newly married with 80% borrowed on the HDB with a regular white collared job.

The question is how likely are we to hit the respective scenario and how long will it last? That I leave you to decide,

Personally I feel the property market is due for some correction (mild scenario 1?) even if it does not prices will likely stagnant. However I choose to hold because my properties are in very good areas (Near towns/schools) which do not have dense condo's around. Tenants who stay there are want to because of the amenities not available anywhere else. Also new MRT lines are coming, I am quite okay to not cash in and just collect rental for the foreseeable future.

So you have to decide on your strategy, if your condo is located in a densely packed area and does not have any particular amenities i.e near Orchard, Upcoming MRT Lines (not existing), New shopping centers etc then perhaps you may want to cash in a little.

If it does have some draw then you can consider to hold on, you do have the means to hold out if things go south.



Quote:

Originally Posted by Unregistered (Post 45992)
dives,

Thanks very much for your analysis and advice - very insightful. (And your estimates on my numbers are pretty spot on.)

Guess you pointed out the crux of the matter - where do I think the market is headed? I can't tell, I suppose. (Unlike the many other prophets on this forum!). And I suppose you're saying that I'm sufficiently hedged, so even if it goes down , I should be OK.

Thanks again!

AJ


Unregistered 07-12-2013 09:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dives (Post 46083)
Hi AJ,

No worries, I won't say you are completely out of the woods if situations go bad. But you have some safety net. Lets break it down to 3 different scenarios

1. Property market correct by 10 - 15%, Rental drops by 30%. You are safe in this region because you can lower rental by 50% and still have your safety net (savings) those who borrow on a dime will be impacted

2. Property Market corrects by 35 - 45%, Rental drops by 50%. This is where you will be at risk, banks may ask you to top up on your loan and that could be an upfront of a few 100K which would immediately force sale your assets. However generally if you pay your loans on time they will not do so but go after the defaulters

3. Property Market corrects by 50 - 60% - Worldwide depression scenario. At this stage only those with tons of cash will make it, even the normal families who moderately leverage will in deep crap. I.e newly married with 80% borrowed on the HDB with a regular white collared job.

The question is how likely are we to hit the respective scenario and how long will it last? That I leave you to decide,

Personally I feel the property market is due for some correction (mild scenario 1?) even if it does not prices will likely stagnant. However I choose to hold because my properties are in very good areas (Near towns/schools) which do not have dense condo's around. Tenants who stay there are want to because of the amenities not available anywhere else. Also new MRT lines are coming, I am quite okay to not cash in and just collect rental for the foreseeable future.

So you have to decide on your strategy, if your condo is located in a densely packed area and does not have any particular amenities i.e near Orchard, Upcoming MRT Lines (not existing), New shopping centers etc then perhaps you may want to cash in a little.

If it does have some draw then you can consider to hold on, you do have the means to hold out if things go south.


thanks dives, i've learnt alot based on your insights and clear layman explanations too. cheers

Unregistered 07-12-2013 02:53 PM

AJ,

Due to the huge oversupply coming, expect prices and rents to crash by 60%. Also be prepared to lose your job. If you are prepared, then you don't have to worry. If you are not prepared, better to sell off your property and deleverage.

Unregistered 08-12-2013 10:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Unregistered (Post 46099)
AJ,

Due to the huge oversupply coming, expect prices and rents to crash by 60%. Also be prepared to lose your job. If you are prepared, then you don't have to worry. If you are not prepared, better to sell off your property and deleverage.

This is a good advice for all. Thanks.

Unregistered 08-12-2013 10:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Unregistered (Post 46052)
Property is for stay, not for speculation. You should work towards paying off your mortgage as fast as possible. The property market today is very exuberant, there are stupid people who over leverage, when prices crash, these stupid fools will blame everyone except themselves. There are also people who encourage others to over leverage, these are irresponsible evil doers.

With so many youngsters who illegally rent out their new BTO flats, they make the oversupply situation worse, crashing property prices further.

Agree. Also people should not abuse the system, should confiscate the flats of those who rent out their BTO flats illegally.

Unregistered 08-12-2013 08:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Unregistered (Post 46099)
AJ,

Due to the huge oversupply coming, expect prices and rents to crash by 60%. Also be prepared to lose your job. If you are prepared, then you don't have to worry. If you are not prepared, better to sell off your property and deleverage.

Hahahaha
Fed will keep low interest rates until 2016. Uk, EU and Japan still in money printing mode.
Every year 25k couples got married and go hunting for homes
Every year 50k foreigners arrive to Singapore shore to work

Many foreigners like andy lau and carina lau waiting at sidelines and ready to pounce once cooling measures are removed....

Most shrewd property investors still hold on to their properties as it is better than keep cash earning 0.3 percentage every year

MAS says full employment and 4% wage inflation, so how property crash 60%?

dives 08-12-2013 10:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Unregistered (Post 46087)
thanks dives, i've learnt alot based on your insights and clear layman explanations too. cheers

Pleasure, besides I don't tell you what you don't already know. Keep your cool and plan accordingly. Good luck.


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