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16-11-2011 05:03 PM
Unregistered
Quote:
Originally Posted by Unregistered View Post
taleb is not that intellignet. he is just an average trader who got lucky with a couple of books (mainly stealing ideas and popularizing ideas from the great Karl Popper).

Also, the Sunshine empire guys are charged with criminal fraud and are now wiping bars in our good prison

Sunshine Empire - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Fortune will fine you if you are destined to be wealthy. Problem is, most ppl are not destined to be wealth, but believe that they are, and pay to pursue the wealth that was never meant to be from the start. then again we need fools like that to sponsore our charitable cause through the tote board, and that's a good thing.
good. then we all just have to sit and wait for fortune to be bestowed upon us.

good gracious fatalistic view.
16-11-2011 04:28 PM
Unregistered taleb is not that intellignet. he is just an average trader who got lucky with a couple of books (mainly stealing ideas and popularizing ideas from the great Karl Popper).

Also, the Sunshine empire guys are charged with criminal fraud and are now wiping bars in our good prison

Sunshine Empire - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Fortune will fine you if you are destined to be wealthy. Problem is, most ppl are not destined to be wealth, but believe that they are, and pay to pursue the wealth that was never meant to be from the start. then again we need fools like that to sponsore our charitable cause through the tote board, and that's a good thing.
16-11-2011 02:43 PM
Unregistered
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hermit View Post
Finally we have someone here who stayed awake during Probability 101 class.
getting a job gives you a high probability of earning a mediocre income. go get a job.

but i wouldn't mind investing a little bit in a low-probability event that may give a high return. e.g. start a business on the side. i believe if you keep trying, lady luck will come.

the usual probability "experts" aren't rich people you know.

it's the _unusual_ probability experts, people who truly understand luck and probability, who will get abnormal returns. examples of these true experts:
Edward Thorp
Claude Shannon
Nassim Taleb
(they are highly intelligent, extremely well-versed in probability, AND they have exploited probability to be very rich)

btw, the putting-hand-in-a-blender example is truly the stupidest counter argument i've heard. only people who are at the probability-101 level can give such lousy examples.
16-11-2011 02:41 PM
Unregistered Remember there was this investment firm called SUNSHINE empire? Their slogan was also no try no strike what... heard they are all now millionaires manz..

You don't put in money how do you know whether will jackpot ornot? Sometimes must try what..


Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryan002 View Post
Okay, you know what? This is the biggest load of s**t I have ever heard. If I took a bucket full of cow dung, got a bad stomach ache, and then loosed my bowels into it until it all sloshed over, there would still be less s**t in it than this guest post.

(1) Let's go back to Sec 1 maths okay? The odds of winning Toto are 1:8,000,000, or thereabouts. When the odds are stacked against you, what happens if you persist in playing within the same market?

Or to be clear: say you're playing Russian Roulette. The chances of losing are 5 in 6 (as is the case with the lottery). You spin once and you don't die. If you spin again, do you think your odds (1) improve, because you're kind of like Rain Man, except retarded without the maths skills, or (2) get worse?

When the odds are stacked against you, you lose more as you play more. So no, it's not a case of succeeding by trying again and again.

(2) Do you know why there are professional Poker players but no professional lottery players? Look at a card deck:

Your chances of drawing an ace are 2 in 52. Every card that's not an ace, is a card closer to the ace.

NOT the case with lottery numbers. Just because an intended number wasn't "2" this time around, doesn't mean you get "closer" to "2". The numbers can reset. There is no "memory" in the way the numbers are picked.

(3) You think I should invest money in a scheme where, after a certain period of time, I may or may not get any money? What would you say if one of those OCBC or DBS investment people called you up and said:

"Hey do you want to invest in a faeces laden plan, where you give us money and we'll randomly decide who to pay it out to?"

Would you actually say yes to that? No? Well why the hell would you buy a lottery ticket then?

(4) No try no strike is it? I wonder if you've heard of this one: Winning means not losing too.

Let's play a game. I'll stick 50 bucks in a blender, turn it on at half speed, and then you try to stick your hand in and grab it. Got cut? Freaking try again. And again. and again. No try, no strike. What a dips**t.

It's called same process same outcome. If you lost at it once, then odds are you'd better try something different. Otherwise it's like being a fly bouncing off a window pane, trying to find an opening.

See the maths: “Investing” in the Lottery?: The Math behind Toto and 4D in Singapore | MoneySmart.sg
16-11-2011 02:22 PM
Hermit
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryan002 View Post
Okay, you know what? This is the biggest load of s**t I have ever heard. If I took a bucket full of cow dung, got a bad stomach ache, and then loosed my bowels into it until it all sloshed over, there would still be less s**t in it than this guest post.

(1) Let's go back to Sec 1 maths okay? The odds of winning Toto are 1:8,000,000, or thereabouts. When the odds are stacked against you, what happens if you persist in playing within the same market?

Or to be clear: say you're playing Russian Roulette. The chances of losing are 5 in 6 (as is the case with the lottery). You spin once and you don't die. If you spin again, do you think your odds (1) improve, because you're kind of like Rain Man, except retarded without the maths skills, or (2) get worse?

When the odds are stacked against you, you lose more as you play more. So no, it's not a case of succeeding by trying again and again.

(2) Do you know why there are professional Poker players but no professional lottery players? Look at a card deck:

Your chances of drawing an ace are 2 in 52. Every card that's not an ace, is a card closer to the ace.

NOT the case with lottery numbers. Just because an intended number wasn't "2" this time around, doesn't mean you get "closer" to "2". The numbers can reset. There is no "memory" in the way the numbers are picked.

(3) You think I should invest money in a scheme where, after a certain period of time, I may or may not get any money? What would you say if one of those OCBC or DBS investment people called you up and said:

"Hey do you want to invest in a faeces laden plan, where you give us money and we'll randomly decide who to pay it out to?"

Would you actually say yes to that? No? Well why the hell would you buy a lottery ticket then?

(4) No try no strike is it? I wonder if you've heard of this one: Winning means not losing too.

Let's play a game. I'll stick 50 bucks in a blender, turn it on at half speed, and then you try to stick your hand in and grab it. Got cut? Freaking try again. And again. and again. No try, no strike. What a dips**t.

It's called same process same outcome. If you lost at it once, then odds are you'd better try something different. Otherwise it's like being a fly bouncing off a window pane, trying to find an opening.

See the maths: “Investing” in the Lottery?: The Math behind Toto and 4D in Singapore | MoneySmart.sg
Finally we have someone here who stayed awake during Probability 101 class.
04-11-2011 10:52 AM
Ryan002 Okay, you know what? This is the biggest load of s**t I have ever heard. If I took a bucket full of cow dung, got a bad stomach ache, and then loosed my bowels into it until it all sloshed over, there would still be less s**t in it than this guest post.

(1) Let's go back to Sec 1 maths okay? The odds of winning Toto are 1:8,000,000, or thereabouts. When the odds are stacked against you, what happens if you persist in playing within the same market?

Or to be clear: say you're playing Russian Roulette. The chances of losing are 5 in 6 (as is the case with the lottery). You spin once and you don't die. If you spin again, do you think your odds (1) improve, because you're kind of like Rain Man, except retarded without the maths skills, or (2) get worse?

When the odds are stacked against you, you lose more as you play more. So no, it's not a case of succeeding by trying again and again.

(2) Do you know why there are professional Poker players but no professional lottery players? Look at a card deck:

Your chances of drawing an ace are 2 in 52. Every card that's not an ace, is a card closer to the ace.

NOT the case with lottery numbers. Just because an intended number wasn't "2" this time around, doesn't mean you get "closer" to "2". The numbers can reset. There is no "memory" in the way the numbers are picked.

(3) You think I should invest money in a scheme where, after a certain period of time, I may or may not get any money? What would you say if one of those OCBC or DBS investment people called you up and said:

"Hey do you want to invest in a faeces laden plan, where you give us money and we'll randomly decide who to pay it out to?"

Would you actually say yes to that? No? Well why the hell would you buy a lottery ticket then?

(4) No try no strike is it? I wonder if you've heard of this one: Winning means not losing too.

Let's play a game. I'll stick 50 bucks in a blender, turn it on at half speed, and then you try to stick your hand in and grab it. Got cut? Freaking try again. And again. and again. No try, no strike. What a dips**t.

It's called same process same outcome. If you lost at it once, then odds are you'd better try something different. Otherwise it's like being a fly bouncing off a window pane, trying to find an opening.

See the maths: “Investing” in the Lottery?: The Math behind Toto and 4D in Singapore | MoneySmart.sg
18-09-2011 08:41 PM
Unregistered
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hermit View Post
I have heard this "No try no strike" saying many times from my friends.

Unfortunately those who subscribe to that philosopy are mostly losers.

Once you wait for that accidental pot of gold you are not going to strive as hard as you could have in your real work or vocation. Never mind the statistics stacked against you.
Subscribing to this philosophy does not mean going out and buying a toto ticket every day.

It means having the initiative and courage to continue looking for new jobs and niches even if you are comfortable in your job, it means exploring a side business or going into business full time, it means asking that girl outside of your league out for a date.

And it means having the persistence to do so repeatedly even though you are consistently knocked back, each time sitting back to strategize how things went wrong and how you can better position your next advance.

The easiest thing in the world is to sit in your comfort zone, work hard at one job and hope that your boss will recognize your efforts and reward you. This is not school where if you work hard you can get full marks in a test with a controlled environment.

This is the real world where you need to have the courage and initiative to try what others won't, otherwise you will always be getting the results that others get - average.
09-09-2011 02:19 PM
Hermit
Quote:
Originally Posted by Unregistered View Post
Maybe your friends also say the same thing about you.
Maybe you are right. I am just a loser. Thank you.
08-09-2011 11:21 PM
Unregistered
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hermit View Post
I have heard this "No try no strike" saying many times from my friends.

Unfortunately those who subscribe to that philosopy are mostly losers.

Once you wait for that accidental pot of gold you are not going to strive as hard as you could have in your real work or vocation. Never mind the statistics stacked against you.
Maybe your friends also say the same thing about you.
08-09-2011 04:35 PM
Hermit I have heard this "No try no strike" saying many times from my friends.

Unfortunately those who subscribe to that philosopy are mostly losers.

Once you wait for that accidental pot of gold you are not going to strive as hard as you could have in your real work or vocation. Never mind the statistics stacked against you.
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