Originally Posted by Unregistered (Post 29652)

No need to make up figures. Look at URA property price index for residential non landed condominium. Can find this on Bloomberg.

12/1997 - 144.0
12/98 - 100.0 (-31%)

6/00 - 141.5
6/04 - 111.4 (-22%)

6/08 - 178.7
6/09 - 132.2 (-26%)

Hdb resale index fell from 136.9 in q4 96 to 95.5 in q1 02 or down 30%.

All this is public info.

Or you can check caveats. District 10 freehold semi d in Greenleaf. $3m in 97. $1.4m in 2003.

Originally Posted by Unregistered (Post 29655)

The problem is in bad years like 1997 / 2000 / 2008, if you invest in other things like stocks, you will be looking at loses of >50% if lucky & 100% wipe out if the co. bankrupt or stock suspended, so compare to stocks property is still the best.

You can alway says put in FD for these years better, but this kind of comment is like horse after cannon, talk after the fact.

Originally Posted by Unregistered (Post 29658)

That's my point. My advice is to put money in fd now target than buying property.

Originally Posted by Unregistered (Post 29660)

I heard this analysis from the so call property analyst about cash is king wait for property to drop since late 2009 in 3 yrs time & 3 years later price shoot up now people are still telling me to wait for another 3 yrs for it to drop...

Originally Posted by Unregistered (Post 29662)

just go for it. dont wait.

waiting for property prices to drop then buy is like gambling. you are speculating that prices will drop.

i rather buy something i can afford and continue to hold even though prices go down. dont buy hoping to flip.

i have a friend who sold his condo in early 2010 and renting until now. his profits from his property almost eaten up by the rents all these 3 years. now he has to buy a HDB flat and he is a banker! a banker saying in a HDB flat! whereas i'm a humble person living in a condo because i bought mine in 2004 and didnt sell.

Originally Posted by Unregistered (Post 29662)

just go for it. dont wait.

waiting for property prices to drop then buy is like gambling. you are speculating that prices will drop.

i rather buy something i can afford and continue to hold even though prices go down. dont buy hoping to flip.

i have a friend who sold his condo in early 2010 and renting until now. his profits from his property almost eaten up by the rents all these 3 years. now he has to buy a HDB flat and he is a banker! a banker saying in a HDB flat! whereas i'm a humble person living in a condo because i bought mine in 2004 and didnt sell.

Originally Posted by Unregistered (Post 29665)

Of course I could be wrong and property prices could go up another 30%. But I could live with myself knowing full well that I took a conscious decision to stay out after calculating the odds.

Originally Posted by ptader (Post 29670)

Good. Please share with us your calculations on the odds and how you arrive at the conclusion that keeping cash now gives a better risk weighted return than buying property in the next 3 years.

I mean real probability calculation of odds, not general feeling about what you think interest rates or price trend is going to be like.

Originally Posted by Unregistered (Post 29669)

I never believe those who can talk one whole long story about their market timing rationale. Seen too many of these talk cock kings who got their arse ripped. Even the world best billionaire investor Warren Buffet admit he can't predict market go up or down, so I take all these millionaire wanabe who don't even have 0.1% of his money with a lorry of salt.

Originally Posted by Unregistered (Post 29676)

Bro - read carefully. I never said I could predict.

I say I play the odds.

- Buy at all time high - odds against.
- Buy when interest rates can only go up - odds against
- Buy when record amount of TOP in both private and hdb is due over next 3 yrs - odds against
- Buy when govt is doing everything they can to bring down the market to a soft landing (which is always the target but almost never achieved) - odds against
- Global uncertainty - odds against
- Positive local liquidity - odds for
- Continued low interest rate environment - odds for

Based on above, I'm happy to take the downside bet. Of course you never know for sure, but you have to make a fair attempt to try figure these things out with whatever data you can get your hands on, knowing full well the limitations of imperfect information.

Well, there's also the buy-and-pray strategy I suppose. To each his own.

Originally Posted by ptader (Post 29684)

So where are the calculations for the odds you mentioned earlier? What you have shared aren't calculations, they are just a couple of generic economic factors which you happily arbitrarily assign either "for" or "against". That is not really any different from buy-and-pray which you accuse others of doing, yours is just betting opposite don't buy-and-pray.

Some of them are pretty dubious, for eg. why is an all time high price considered "against"? You mean property or stocks when hit new high will have a high chance of sliding back? If this is the case then by right property or stock prices will always bounce between some price bands, but historically that is definitely not the case.

And just out of curiousity at the end of the day how did you arrive at the conclusion it is better odds to put in FD and wait? I hope there is more rigorousity than just adding up all the "for" and "against" and see which side got more ticks?

Originally Posted by Unregistered (Post 29095)

In Singapore, if you don't live in a private property, you are actually a nobody. That's a reality. Noone will tell you this in your face in the real world. We are now in an online forum so people will tell you the hard facts.

Those who live in hdb - nobody
Those who live in condo - almost there
Those who live in a landed property - you've arrived and indeed a somebody. Only 5% of Singaporeans live in a landed property

Work harder to be a somebody in your life

Originally Posted by ptader (Post 29684)

So where are the calculations for the odds you mentioned earlier? What you have shared aren't calculations, they are just a couple of generic economic factors which you happily arbitrarily assign either "for" or "against". That is not really any different from buy-and-pray which you accuse others of doing, yours is just betting opposite don't buy-and-pray.

Some of them are pretty dubious, for eg. why is an all time high price considered "against"? You mean property or stocks when hit new high will have a high chance of sliding back? If this is the case then by right property or stock prices will always bounce between some price bands, but historically that is definitely not the case.

And just out of curiousity at the end of the day how did you arrive at the conclusion it is better odds to put in FD and wait? I hope there is more rigorousity than just adding up all the "for" and "against" and see which side got more ticks?

Originally Posted by Unregistered (Post 29695)

This is the real world and not university, where everything falls into neat boxes and you are given all the assumptions.

If you think there is any one that can tell you there's a x% chance the property market is going down by y% in 1 year, you are a child.

There's no perfect information and even with perfect data projections, no one can give you stable correlations between the data to effect a reliable predictive model.

If in the face of the odds I've mentioned, you still want to buy, be my guest -it's your money and it's your life. Like I say, you could well be right, but I just wouldn't bet MY money on it.

Originally Posted by ptader (Post 29699)

Hold on there, let’s get the picture straight here before pulling out all those sucker punches. Throwing an offhand statement that the REAL world works differently seems like a blatant attempt to prop up an argument that made no sense.

You started off recommending to others to hold on to cash and wait for 3 years property price to go down then buy. Together with this recommendation, you made several disparaging remarks on forumers who are bullish on property basically saying you’ve got the analysis worked out, investment is more than just buy & hold, good old days are over etc etc.

When challenged to flesh out your so called investment logic to back up your advice that property prices will drop the next few years, you then claimed that you are not into market timing but specifically emphasize to us that you’ve done calculations on the odds and you “play the probabilities” based on your analysis and economic rationale. So this brings me to my post #408 which I specifically asked you to share with us these so called calculations and probabilities.

You responded in #411 with totally ZERO evidence of any calculations on probabilities. Instead you listed down some generic things that everyone knows like interest rate is low, government is trying to cool down, global economic uncertainty etc and then just humtum either “for” or “against”. No numbers, no research, no trend analysis, no residential market insights - just a bunch of “for” and “against” personal judgments followed by a sudden conclusion that the odds are “against” for properties.

In #413, I asked you again the same question – where are the calculations you claim you did before arriving at your recommendation? This brings us to your latest post in #416, a highly condescending personal attack about me being childish don’t know anything about the real world etc. I have asked hard hitting questions on your investment thesis which I think is just as arbitrary and flawed as the buy-and-hold crowd which you condemned earlier, but I have so far not made an form of personal attack against you. I treat this latest tirade as a sign that you got caught swimming naked and now trying to back pedal.

Your excuse on how you cannot calculate probabilities due to the lack of perfect data and predictive model is like – duh!?!?!. I mean, if data and model is perfect, then that’s not called probability, it’s called prophecy. Even if you are unable to arrive at a defined x%, I was hoping at least there’s more thought process and research numbers to demonstrate you at least made an attempt to quantify the odds and a comparison of the expected returns on both alternatives.

Instead we get shaft with a so what attitude of “be my guest -it's your money and it's your life.” Yea we know that, can we have the calculations now please?

Originally Posted by ptader (Post 29699)

Hold on there, let’s get the picture straight here before pulling out all those sucker punches. Throwing an offhand statement that the REAL world works differently seems like a blatant attempt to prop up an argument that made no sense.

You started off recommending to others to hold on to cash and wait for 3 years property price to go down then buy. Together with this recommendation, you made several disparaging remarks on forumers who are bullish on property basically saying you’ve got the analysis worked out, investment is more than just buy & hold, good old days are over etc etc.

When challenged to flesh out your so called investment logic to back up your advice that property prices will drop the next few years, you then claimed that you are not into market timing but specifically emphasize to us that you’ve done calculations on the odds and you “play the probabilities” based on your analysis and economic rationale. So this brings me to my post #408 which I specifically asked you to share with us these so called calculations and probabilities.

You responded in #411 with totally ZERO evidence of any calculations on probabilities. Instead you listed down some generic things that everyone knows like interest rate is low, government is trying to cool down, global economic uncertainty etc and then just humtum either “for” or “against”. No numbers, no research, no trend analysis, no residential market insights - just a bunch of “for” and “against” personal judgments followed by a sudden conclusion that the odds are “against” for properties.

In #413, I asked you again the same question – where are the calculations you claim you did before arriving at your recommendation? This brings us to your latest post in #416, a highly condescending personal attack about me being childish don’t know anything about the real world etc. I have asked hard hitting questions on your investment thesis which I think is just as arbitrary and flawed as the buy-and-hold crowd which you condemned earlier, but I have so far not made an form of personal attack against you. I treat this latest tirade as a sign that you got caught swimming naked and now trying to back pedal.

Your excuse on how you cannot calculate probabilities due to the lack of perfect data and predictive model is like – duh!?!?!. I mean, if data and model is perfect, then that’s not called probability, it’s called prophecy. Even if you are unable to arrive at a defined x%, I was hoping at least there’s more thought process and research numbers to demonstrate you at least made an attempt to quantify the odds and a comparison of the expected returns on both alternatives.

Instead we get shaft with a so what attitude of “be my guest -it's your money and it's your life.” Yea we know that, can we have the calculations now please?

Originally Posted by ptader (Post 29699)

Hold on there, let’s get the picture straight here before pulling out all those sucker punches. Throwing an offhand statement that the REAL world works differently seems like a blatant attempt to prop up an argument that made no sense.

You started off recommending to others to hold on to cash and wait for 3 years property price to go down then buy. Together with this recommendation, you made several disparaging remarks on forumers who are bullish on property basically saying you’ve got the analysis worked out, investment is more than just buy & hold, good old days are over etc etc.

When challenged to flesh out your so called investment logic to back up your advice that property prices will drop the next few years, you then claimed that you are not into market timing but specifically emphasize to us that you’ve done calculations on the odds and you “play the probabilities” based on your analysis and economic rationale. So this brings me to my post #408 which I specifically asked you to share with us these so called calculations and probabilities.

You responded in #411 with totally ZERO evidence of any calculations on probabilities. Instead you listed down some generic things that everyone knows like interest rate is low, government is trying to cool down, global economic uncertainty etc and then just humtum either “for” or “against”. No numbers, no research, no trend analysis, no residential market insights - just a bunch of “for” and “against” personal judgments followed by a sudden conclusion that the odds are “against” for properties.

In #413, I asked you again the same question – where are the calculations you claim you did before arriving at your recommendation? This brings us to your latest post in #416, a highly condescending personal attack about me being childish don’t know anything about the real world etc. I have asked hard hitting questions on your investment thesis which I think is just as arbitrary and flawed as the buy-and-hold crowd which you condemned earlier, but I have so far not made an form of personal attack against you. I treat this latest tirade as a sign that you got caught swimming naked and now trying to back pedal.

Your excuse on how you cannot calculate probabilities due to the lack of perfect data and predictive model is like – duh!?!?!. I mean, if data and model is perfect, then that’s not called probability, it’s called prophecy. Even if you are unable to arrive at a defined x%, I was hoping at least there’s more thought process and research numbers to demonstrate you at least made an attempt to quantify the odds and a comparison of the expected returns on both alternatives.

Instead we get shaft with a so what attitude of “be my guest -it's your money and it's your life.” Yea we know that, can we have the calculations now please?

Originally Posted by ptader (Post 29710)

Has it ever struck you that just because you don’t know how to calculate doesn’t mean it cannot be done? Maybe the problem is because like you say, you are kind of stuck at Statistics 101 instead of 301, that’s why you can’t do it? Going by your logic most M&A & investment activities in the world belong to “open system” (whatever that means), yet everyday thousands of corporations & banks employing millions of professionals are doing statistical and financial modeling to determine all sorts of risk weighted investment decisions. Going by your Statistics 101 cheap football analogy, they should all disband their investment teams, get one guy to sit around list 5 factors and arbitrarily vote “for” or “against” then sum up see if there are more “for” or “against”? This sort of analogy just goes against what is observable in the real world.

Now don’t get me wrong, I’m not against you personally for only having rudimentary laymen knowledge on finance & investment analytics, after all different people have different skillsets. It’s just that earlier on you made a big show about how others are only blindly buy & hold and espoused others to follow your lead in having probability calculations and investment logic. Now in retrospect it looks thick when you are unable to produce anything substantial and try to get away by simply declaring this is just “Statistic 101” or come up with strange excuses like you do not have perfect data or too much noise.



This is not true, interest rates can not only go up or down but also stay constant. This has been demonstrated possible by Japan for nearly 20 years. Remember, your thesis is to hold cash for 3-5 years and wait for property to plunge. Where is the statistical odd calculation that chances of a sharp increase in interest rate is higher than that of staying constant or rising slightly over the next 3 – 5


You are contradicting yourself. If the recommended ratio is 3x, then when it was 4x, 5x, 6x, 7x, you would have been saying price will go back to 3x. Seeing that it is now 8x, I don’t think any person who followed your advice and missed out buying at 4x, 5x and 6x are too happy about your probabilistic calculations and investment theory.



Please don’t throw big words like “basic supply demand dynamics” whenever you lack the strength to carry through your case. What about hot money inflows, household formations and projected net adsorption rates? And also rentals may fall, but sometimes this is compensated by falling capitalization rates. So again where are the calculations of odds demonstrating that your scenario after weighting all these options is of higher probability than other scenarios?



The government’s goals are to stabilize property market and not to cause a price plunge, that I agree. But if they succeed this means a price appreciation that is moderated maybe to the region of GDP growth and general inflation rates or at worst stays flat or falls slightly. This does not gel in with your proposition to hold cash and wait for a property plunge in 3 years.

You did not address this incompatibility between the government’s goals and your own prognosis that there is a high probability of prices plunging in the next 3 years. Instead we are advised that the Singapore government’s target of soft land is “almost never achieved”. Do you have enough case histories of government intervention failure leading to property price plunge in Singapore to arrive at a probabilistic conclusion? Or is it just another off-hand personal opinion of yours that is whacked to us as a fact?



This is an overly broad statement that can justify withholding any form of investment.



I personally have never claimed that I am confident of property prices going up. My original post was just a simple one to explain why Sgeans are so into property, i.e. because all the alternatives not attractive. For me I express no opinion the next 3 – 5 years where property will go.

You were the one who jumped in on the need to wait out for property prices to plunge and lecturing other bros that investments should be done like the way you are doing – with business rationale and calculation of the odds and even coined a cute soundbite “play the probabilities”. All I did was invite you to share with us what exactly are the calculations.

So far you demonstrated you neither know nor care much about the subject of calculating probabilities. Instead what we have are broad attempts to brush off anything that does not gel with your conclusion with lines like “This is the real world, not university”, “Just statistic 101”, some kopitiam football betting theory, “basic demand supply” etc.

Again, where are the calculations which you claimed you did earlier?

Originally Posted by ptader (Post 29710)

Has it ever struck you that just because you don’t know how to calculate doesn’t mean it cannot be done? Maybe the problem is because like you say, you are kind of stuck at Statistics 101 instead of 301, that’s why you can’t do it? Going by your logic most M&A & investment activities in the world belong to “open system” (whatever that means), yet everyday thousands of corporations & banks employing millions of professionals are doing statistical and financial modeling to determine all sorts of risk weighted investment decisions. Going by your Statistics 101 cheap football analogy, they should all disband their investment teams, get one guy to sit around list 5 factors and arbitrarily vote “for” or “against” then sum up see if there are more “for” or “against”? This sort of analogy just goes against what is observable in the real world.

Now don’t get me wrong, I’m not against you personally for only having rudimentary laymen knowledge on finance & investment analytics, after all different people have different skillsets. It’s just that earlier on you made a big show about how others are only blindly buy & hold and espoused others to follow your lead in having probability calculations and investment logic. Now in retrospect it looks thick when you are unable to produce anything substantial and try to get away by simply declaring this is just “Statistic 101” or come up with strange excuses like you do not have perfect data or too much noise.



This is not true, interest rates can not only go up or down but also stay constant. This has been demonstrated possible by Japan for nearly 20 years. Remember, your thesis is to hold cash for 3-5 years and wait for property to plunge. Where is the statistical odd calculation that chances of a sharp increase in interest rate is higher than that of staying constant or rising slightly over the next 3 – 5 years?



You are contradicting yourself. If the recommended ratio is 3x, then when it was 4x, 5x, 6x, 7x, you would have been saying price will go back to 3x. Seeing that it is now 8x, I don’t think any person who followed your advice and missed out buying at 4x, 5x and 6x are too happy about your probabilistic calculations and investment theory.



Please don’t throw big words like “basic supply demand dynamics” whenever you lack the strength to carry through your case. What about hot money inflows, household formations and projected net adsorption rates? And also rentals may fall, but sometimes this is compensated by falling capitalization rates. So again where are the calculations of odds demonstrating that your scenario after weighting all these options is of higher probability than other scenarios?



The government’s goals are to stabilize property market and not to cause a price plunge, that I agree. But if they succeed this means a price appreciation that is moderated maybe to the region of GDP growth and general inflation rates or at worst stays flat or falls slightly. This does not gel in with your proposition to hold cash and wait for a property plunge in 3 years.

You did not address this incompatibility between the government’s goals and your own prognosis that there is a high probability of prices plunging in the next 3 years. Instead we are advised that the Singapore government’s target of soft land is “almost never achieved”. Do you have enough case histories of government intervention failure leading to property price plunge in Singapore to arrive at a probabilistic conclusion? Or is it just another off-hand personal opinion of yours that is whacked to us as a fact?



This is an overly broad statement that can justify withholding any form of investment.



I personally have never claimed that I am confident of property prices going up. My original post was just a simple one to explain why Sgeans are so into property, i.e. because all the alternatives not attractive. For me I express no opinion the next 3 – 5 years where property will go.

You were the one who jumped in on the need to wait out for property prices to plunge and lecturing other bros that investments should be done like the way you are doing – with business rationale and calculation of the odds and even coined a cute soundbite “play the probabilities”. All I did was invite you to share with us what exactly are the calculations.

So far you demonstrated you neither know nor care much about the subject of calculating probabilities. Instead what we have are broad attempts to brush off anything that does not gel with your conclusion with lines like “This is the real world, not university”, “Just statistic 101”, some kopitiam football betting theory, “basic demand supply” etc.

Again, where are the calculations which you claimed you did earlier?

Originally Posted by Wiseman1 (Post 29704)

You people are full of crap about the property market...talk so much big logic as if you are very smart...but is actually just a big load of garbage talk

The reason for the current bullish demand and crazy prices in the property market in singapore is very straightforward: easy financing from the banks, the government recently introduced tighter financing rules for house purchases which amounted to mosquito measures as far as I am concerned, as long as you dont make people pay 100%cash for their 2nd, 3rd property, the demand would not go down

Sillyporean house buyers are now just acting like monkeys, following the crowd to speculate in bricks and mortar as they are afraid to miss the boat, in the process they happily ignore issues of how to service their mortgages should they lose their jobs or should their businesses fail. They believe there would always be a carrot head foreigner willing to pay them high rental to help them cover the mortgage payments. Low interest rates and easy financing offered by eager bankers hungry to fight for housing loan market share just embolden these clown housing investors...I am not even sure if they can call themselves investors since they dont even know what the hell they are doing, just following the crowd.

When you see uncles and aunties in their fifties having no qualms taking up 20 year bank loans to purchase 2nd, 3rd properties, this would be the turning point to sound the alarm...

Originally Posted by Unregistered (Post 29739)

Chanced upon this thread. Here's my two cents worth.

Wiseman1 : If your advice is that we should only buy when the govt makes people pay 100% for their second, third and fourth property, I think you are effectively saying that people should never buy because this will never happen.

Unregistered bear: I agree with your points, you make sense. But like others have said, I would not have made money by buying in 09 if I used price to income as a guide.

Ptader: you have some valid points (and a number of very leaky arguments) but you are trying too hard. You would be more convincing if you had a point of view.

Personally, I think that things are a bit toppish, and personally wouldnt buy for investment, but if you need a place to stay I think there are still bargains to be had ie anchorage at $1200 psf near queens town, freehold, (nearby alexis going for $2k psf) or mutiara condos near great world city going for $1300+ psf, freehold (nearby latitude going for $2.2k psf). You probably won't see prices go down too much there.

Originally Posted by Unregistered (Post 29739)

Chanced upon this thread. Here's my two cents worth.

Wiseman1 : If your advice is that we should only buy when the govt makes people pay 100% for their second, third and fourth property, I think you are effectively saying that people should never buy because this will never happen.

Unregistered bear: I agree with your points, you make sense. But like others have said, I would not have made money by buying in 09 if I used price to income as a guide.

Ptader: you have some valid points (and a number of very leaky arguments) but you are trying too hard. You would be more convincing if you had a point of view.

Personally, I think that things are a bit toppish, and personally wouldnt buy for investment, but if you need a place to stay I think there are still bargains to be had ie anchorage at $1200 psf near queens town, freehold, (nearby alexis going for $2k psf) or mutiara condos near great world city going for $1300+ psf, freehold (nearby latitude going for $2.2k psf). You probably won't see prices go down too much there.

Originally Posted by Wiseman1 (Post 29744)

Originally Posted by Unregistered (Post 16544)

After reading all these savings and assets you guys have, I've become depressed. Very depressed.

I'm in my late 20s and currently, i ONLY have ~$2k in my bank a/c. Zero assets.

i guess i have to sell my kidney. Interested?

Sigh...

Originally Posted by Unregistered (Post 29706)

Sigh. I don't know what is so difficult to understand.

Statistics 101. If you are in a closed system, like dealing cards, you can assign probabilities easily. But in an open system, there is no way to do so reliably. Assume Real Madrid plays Barcelona, and assume its an even match. If Messi, Barcelona's star gets injured, it is clear Real Madrid has the better odds, but can you reliably put a percentage to it? Now assume Xavi, the other Barcelona star gets injured, how much better does that make Real Madrid's odds?
?

Originally Posted by Unregistered (Post 29935)

actually i think they can calculate the ODDS. thats what singapore pools is doing. DOH.
but you make good points.

Originally Posted by Unregistered (Post 29942)

There's a slight difference. Those are betting odds not predictive odds.

What they do is to make certain assumptions in the absence of perfect information to come up with betting odds, not with the aim of predicting the outcome of the game, but for the aim of getting people to bet one way or another. Of course the odds must be reasonably fair such that you attract people to bet on both sides because you are basically aiming to make the spread, and not take a position either way.

And if you get more people on one side, you adjust the odds so that you get back to a riskless position.

So it's possible to come up with odds but if you are looking for reliably predictive odds, I maintain its not possible for open ended systems.

If you're looking for other examples, you can just go and pick up the economic forecasts from 20 banks over the past 10 yrs and compare their forecasts to the actual data numbers. Or pick up equity research reports for for com companies in the 90s.

Originally Posted by Unregistered (Post 29965)

not this calculate odd nonsense again, you either know where the market is going or you don't. you and the other guy write so much & in the end still nothing at all.

if you know, tell us what will happen and we see later if you are right. if dont know say dont know. dont try and confuse the issue by using all this boliao words, what open system close sytem predictive odd betting odd riskless position bla bla. first time i see people buy property buy until so many things to think about and still no answer on market going up or down.

all talk no action.

Originally Posted by Unregistered (Post 29965)

not this calculate odd nonsense again, you either know where the market is going or you don't. you and the other guy write so much & in the end still nothing at all.

if you know, tell us what will happen and we see later if you are right. if dont know say dont know. dont try and confuse the issue by using all this boliao words, what open system close sytem predictive odd betting odd riskless position bla bla. first time i see people buy property buy until so many things to think about and still no answer on market going up or down.

all talk no action.

Originally Posted by Unregistered (Post 30125)

Omg. everyone seems so rich
My parents:
cash: 2-3k i guess
stock:maybe 1k
age: near 50.
i thought we belonged to low income. I guess should be lower-low income