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-   -   How much savings do you have? (https://forums.salary.sg/investments-net-worth/1199-how-much-savings-do-you-have.html)

Unregistered 01-11-2012 12:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Unregistered (Post 29669)
I never believe those who can talk one whole long story about their market timing rationale. Seen too many of these talk cock kings who got their arse ripped. Even the world best billionaire investor Warren Buffet admit he can't predict market go up or down, so I take all these millionaire wanabe who don't even have 0.1% of his money with a lorry of salt.

Bro - read carefully. I never said I could predict.

I say I play the odds.

- Buy at all time high - odds against.
- Buy when interest rates can only go up - odds against
- Buy when record amount of TOP in both private and hdb is due over next 3 yrs - odds against
- Buy when govt is doing everything they can to bring down the market to a soft landing (which is always the target but almost never achieved) - odds against
- Global uncertainty - odds against
- Positive local liquidity - odds for
- Continued low interest rate environment - odds for

Based on above, I'm happy to take the downside bet. Of course you never know for sure, but you have to make a fair attempt to try figure these things out with whatever data you can get your hands on, knowing full well the limitations of imperfect information.

Well, there's also the buy-and-pray strategy I suppose. To each his own.

Unregistered 01-11-2012 09:34 AM

It's all about time horizon... the shorter it is.. the more accuracy you need to time the right entry/exit.. and you have less margin of error..

stretch the time horizon longer... you probably don't need to time the market to absolute accuracy.. off by 6 to 12 months is ok if you are looking at 5~10 years..

ptader 01-11-2012 09:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Unregistered (Post 29676)
Bro - read carefully. I never said I could predict.

I say I play the odds.

- Buy at all time high - odds against.
- Buy when interest rates can only go up - odds against
- Buy when record amount of TOP in both private and hdb is due over next 3 yrs - odds against
- Buy when govt is doing everything they can to bring down the market to a soft landing (which is always the target but almost never achieved) - odds against
- Global uncertainty - odds against
- Positive local liquidity - odds for
- Continued low interest rate environment - odds for

Based on above, I'm happy to take the downside bet. Of course you never know for sure, but you have to make a fair attempt to try figure these things out with whatever data you can get your hands on, knowing full well the limitations of imperfect information.

Well, there's also the buy-and-pray strategy I suppose. To each his own.

So where are the calculations for the odds you mentioned earlier? What you have shared aren't calculations, they are just a couple of generic economic factors which you happily arbitrarily assign either "for" or "against". That is not really any different from buy-and-pray which you accuse others of doing, yours is just betting opposite don't buy-and-pray.

Some of them are pretty dubious, for eg. why is an all time high price considered "against"? You mean property or stocks when hit new high will have a high chance of sliding back? If this is the case then by right property or stock prices will always bounce between some price bands, but historically that is definitely not the case.

And just out of curiousity at the end of the day how did you arrive at the conclusion it is better odds to put in FD and wait? I hope there is more rigorousity than just adding up all the "for" and "against" and see which side got more ticks?

Unregistered 01-11-2012 10:50 AM

he is just saying calculating the odds figuratively lar, like his has some general feeling for the marcoeconomic trends, not really do maths or equation. investment is more about gut feeling and business acumen, not do maths and play formulas lar. i think you study too much everything become maths and numbers.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ptader (Post 29684)
So where are the calculations for the odds you mentioned earlier? What you have shared aren't calculations, they are just a couple of generic economic factors which you happily arbitrarily assign either "for" or "against". That is not really any different from buy-and-pray which you accuse others of doing, yours is just betting opposite don't buy-and-pray.

Some of them are pretty dubious, for eg. why is an all time high price considered "against"? You mean property or stocks when hit new high will have a high chance of sliding back? If this is the case then by right property or stock prices will always bounce between some price bands, but historically that is definitely not the case.

And just out of curiousity at the end of the day how did you arrive at the conclusion it is better odds to put in FD and wait? I hope there is more rigorousity than just adding up all the "for" and "against" and see which side got more ticks?


Unregistered 01-11-2012 11:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Unregistered (Post 29095)
In Singapore, if you don't live in a private property, you are actually a nobody. That's a reality. Noone will tell you this in your face in the real world. We are now in an online forum so people will tell you the hard facts.

Those who live in hdb - nobody
Those who live in condo - almost there
Those who live in a landed property - you've arrived and indeed a somebody. Only 5% of Singaporeans live in a landed property

Work harder to be a somebody in your life


Omg I chanced upon this post and was horrified.

Really? you are leading a terribly sad life. i live in a hdb and has an annual income of 200k, own other properties but for investment sake. Who is to say that i didn't work hard enough just because I live in the hdb.

gosh.. YOU, with this kinda mentality are the nobody.

Unregistered 01-11-2012 12:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ptader (Post 29684)
So where are the calculations for the odds you mentioned earlier? What you have shared aren't calculations, they are just a couple of generic economic factors which you happily arbitrarily assign either "for" or "against". That is not really any different from buy-and-pray which you accuse others of doing, yours is just betting opposite don't buy-and-pray.

Some of them are pretty dubious, for eg. why is an all time high price considered "against"? You mean property or stocks when hit new high will have a high chance of sliding back? If this is the case then by right property or stock prices will always bounce between some price bands, but historically that is definitely not the case.

And just out of curiousity at the end of the day how did you arrive at the conclusion it is better odds to put in FD and wait? I hope there is more rigorousity than just adding up all the "for" and "against" and see which side got more ticks?

This is the real world and not university, where everything falls into neat boxes and you are given all the assumptions.

If you think there is any one that can tell you there's a x% chance the property market is going down by y% in 1 year, you are a child.

There's no perfect information and even with perfect data projections, no one can give you stable correlations between the data to effect a reliable predictive model.

If in the face of the odds I've mentioned, you still want to buy, be my guest -it's your money and it's your life. Like I say, you could well be right, but I just wouldn't bet MY money on it.

ptader 01-11-2012 03:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Unregistered (Post 29695)
This is the real world and not university, where everything falls into neat boxes and you are given all the assumptions.

If you think there is any one that can tell you there's a x% chance the property market is going down by y% in 1 year, you are a child.

There's no perfect information and even with perfect data projections, no one can give you stable correlations between the data to effect a reliable predictive model.

If in the face of the odds I've mentioned, you still want to buy, be my guest -it's your money and it's your life. Like I say, you could well be right, but I just wouldn't bet MY money on it.

Hold on there, let’s get the picture straight here before pulling out all those sucker punches. Throwing an offhand statement that the REAL world works differently seems like a blatant attempt to prop up an argument that made no sense.

You started off recommending to others to hold on to cash and wait for 3 years property price to go down then buy. Together with this recommendation, you made several disparaging remarks on forumers who are bullish on property basically saying you’ve got the analysis worked out, investment is more than just buy & hold, good old days are over etc etc.

When challenged to flesh out your so called investment logic to back up your advice that property prices will drop the next few years, you then claimed that you are not into market timing but specifically emphasize to us that you’ve done calculations on the odds and you “play the probabilities” based on your analysis and economic rationale. So this brings me to my post #408 which I specifically asked you to share with us these so called calculations and probabilities.

You responded in #411 with totally ZERO evidence of any calculations on probabilities. Instead you listed down some generic things that everyone knows like interest rate is low, government is trying to cool down, global economic uncertainty etc and then just humtum either “for” or “against”. No numbers, no research, no trend analysis, no residential market insights - just a bunch of “for” and “against” personal judgments followed by a sudden conclusion that the odds are “against” for properties.

In #413, I asked you again the same question – where are the calculations you claim you did before arriving at your recommendation? This brings us to your latest post in #416, a highly condescending personal attack about me being childish don’t know anything about the real world etc. I have asked hard hitting questions on your investment thesis which I think is just as arbitrary and flawed as the buy-and-hold crowd which you condemned earlier, but I have so far not made an form of personal attack against you. I treat this latest tirade as a sign that you got caught swimming naked and now trying to back pedal.

Your excuse on how you cannot calculate probabilities due to the lack of perfect data and predictive model is like – duh!?!?!. I mean, if data and model is perfect, then that’s not called probability, it’s called prophecy. Even if you are unable to arrive at a defined x%, I was hoping at least there’s more thought process and research numbers to demonstrate you at least made an attempt to quantify the odds and a comparison of the expected returns on both alternatives.

Instead we get shaft with a so what attitude of “be my guest -it's your money and it's your life.” Yea we know that, can we have the calculations now please?

Unregistered 01-11-2012 03:26 PM

Based on my research, prices will not fall but stabilize. There will be many units coming TOP over the next 3-4 years but these will be absorbed by the market with 6.5mil population. Some location like the Jurong lake and Thomson line area will in fact see rising prices due to the development and Mrt plans.

Wait and pray is not a strategy.

Unregistered 01-11-2012 04:50 PM

Haha relax bro, many here just to tcss. There will always be people csb big cannon with only hot air. Besides I doubt anyone who is good at property & stock investment / trading will bother to post their tips and discuss seriously in a forum like this.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ptader (Post 29699)
Hold on there, let’s get the picture straight here before pulling out all those sucker punches. Throwing an offhand statement that the REAL world works differently seems like a blatant attempt to prop up an argument that made no sense.

You started off recommending to others to hold on to cash and wait for 3 years property price to go down then buy. Together with this recommendation, you made several disparaging remarks on forumers who are bullish on property basically saying you’ve got the analysis worked out, investment is more than just buy & hold, good old days are over etc etc.

When challenged to flesh out your so called investment logic to back up your advice that property prices will drop the next few years, you then claimed that you are not into market timing but specifically emphasize to us that you’ve done calculations on the odds and you “play the probabilities” based on your analysis and economic rationale. So this brings me to my post #408 which I specifically asked you to share with us these so called calculations and probabilities.

You responded in #411 with totally ZERO evidence of any calculations on probabilities. Instead you listed down some generic things that everyone knows like interest rate is low, government is trying to cool down, global economic uncertainty etc and then just humtum either “for” or “against”. No numbers, no research, no trend analysis, no residential market insights - just a bunch of “for” and “against” personal judgments followed by a sudden conclusion that the odds are “against” for properties.

In #413, I asked you again the same question – where are the calculations you claim you did before arriving at your recommendation? This brings us to your latest post in #416, a highly condescending personal attack about me being childish don’t know anything about the real world etc. I have asked hard hitting questions on your investment thesis which I think is just as arbitrary and flawed as the buy-and-hold crowd which you condemned earlier, but I have so far not made an form of personal attack against you. I treat this latest tirade as a sign that you got caught swimming naked and now trying to back pedal.

Your excuse on how you cannot calculate probabilities due to the lack of perfect data and predictive model is like – duh!?!?!. I mean, if data and model is perfect, then that’s not called probability, it’s called prophecy. Even if you are unable to arrive at a defined x%, I was hoping at least there’s more thought process and research numbers to demonstrate you at least made an attempt to quantify the odds and a comparison of the expected returns on both alternatives.

Instead we get shaft with a so what attitude of “be my guest -it's your money and it's your life.” Yea we know that, can we have the calculations now please?


Unregistered 01-11-2012 09:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ptader (Post 29699)
Hold on there, let’s get the picture straight here before pulling out all those sucker punches. Throwing an offhand statement that the REAL world works differently seems like a blatant attempt to prop up an argument that made no sense.

You started off recommending to others to hold on to cash and wait for 3 years property price to go down then buy. Together with this recommendation, you made several disparaging remarks on forumers who are bullish on property basically saying you’ve got the analysis worked out, investment is more than just buy & hold, good old days are over etc etc.

When challenged to flesh out your so called investment logic to back up your advice that property prices will drop the next few years, you then claimed that you are not into market timing but specifically emphasize to us that you’ve done calculations on the odds and you “play the probabilities” based on your analysis and economic rationale. So this brings me to my post #408 which I specifically asked you to share with us these so called calculations and probabilities.

You responded in #411 with totally ZERO evidence of any calculations on probabilities. Instead you listed down some generic things that everyone knows like interest rate is low, government is trying to cool down, global economic uncertainty etc and then just humtum either “for” or “against”. No numbers, no research, no trend analysis, no residential market insights - just a bunch of “for” and “against” personal judgments followed by a sudden conclusion that the odds are “against” for properties.

In #413, I asked you again the same question – where are the calculations you claim you did before arriving at your recommendation? This brings us to your latest post in #416, a highly condescending personal attack about me being childish don’t know anything about the real world etc. I have asked hard hitting questions on your investment thesis which I think is just as arbitrary and flawed as the buy-and-hold crowd which you condemned earlier, but I have so far not made an form of personal attack against you. I treat this latest tirade as a sign that you got caught swimming naked and now trying to back pedal.

Your excuse on how you cannot calculate probabilities due to the lack of perfect data and predictive model is like – duh!?!?!. I mean, if data and model is perfect, then that’s not called probability, it’s called prophecy. Even if you are unable to arrive at a defined x%, I was hoping at least there’s more thought process and research numbers to demonstrate you at least made an attempt to quantify the odds and a comparison of the expected returns on both alternatives.

Instead we get shaft with a so what attitude of “be my guest -it's your money and it's your life.” Yea we know that, can we have the calculations now please?


Bravo, i applaud this reply. It's a KO KNOCKOUT PUNCH.

I love the way you practically destroyed all his points one by one.

Made my day haha.


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