What you have mentioned holds some merit but it should be taken with a longer-term perspective as well.

Technology will gradually replace the basic KYC, transaction monitoring as well as the more operational aspects of Compliance. But this sort of automated process is still at least 6 to 8 years away from being fully tested, developed and rolled out among the global finance industry. On the other hand, automated processes cannot replace the advisory nature of Compliance, in terms of AML, Sanctions and other high-value activities that require a human decision to be made, bearing in mind the multitude of variables that can affect a single decision. Business cannot simply input into a machine 'Do the activities of this client in this particular sector warrant a higher risk level or are there mitigants which reduce the risk exposure of the bank towards the client's activities?' and expect a decision to be made for them. I just do not see automation replacing these sort of human analysis.

USA is the biggest driver in the finance world, but it is still only a single jurisdiction. The major revenue drivers for banks aren't even in the States anymore, it's Asia and to a certain extent EMEA. I don't expect Asian and EMEA regulators to take their cue from USA on the regulation front. Beside, Trump will only be around for 4 years, and even given the highly unlikely event that he gets re-elected, his proposed loosening of regulations will only be enforced till the next major crisis/scandal. After which I expect the rubberband effect, surge in demand again for Compliance professionals.

Transversal tax issues don't fall into most major banks' Compliance domain anymore, if anything, they will be scrapping with the ex-auditors and Big 4 alumnis for a job, not the mainstream Compliance advisory professionals.