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Old 11-08-2010, 09:49 AM
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Originally Posted by Unregistered View Post
it's extremely hard to tell the difference between talent, luck or a combination of the 2. for example, would you think Paul the octopus is extremely talented? easy? then look at all the self-proclaimed self-made millionaires and ask which of these are talented, lucky, or both, or just lying through their teeth (eg. that ebay "millionaire")?

starting with 1024 people, assign half of them to short the market and the other half to long it. after 10 rounds, there will be 1 big winner who is correct 10 times consecutively. we know he's just lucky. but he himself may be deluded into thinking he has all the talent in the world and will proceed to write books, give interviews, sell his "secrets" and mislead countless others that his strategies are worth a million dollars.

the real secret is: if you are lucky, exploit your luck further by selling your "top secret" investing strategies.
you haven't been lucky, just pretend you were.
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