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Old 06-08-2010, 12:09 AM
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Originally Posted by Unregistered View Post
The real key to trading.. let me tell you.

Number 1: Identify the major trend (up or down)

Number 2: Trade that if give higher probability. Build small positions...
and keep adding to that trend and let time make the trades mature.

Minimize ultra short term trading... which will likely cause you psychological and $$$ damage.

As to how to identify trend and add positions... you have to find it yourself. Without number 1, nothing can work. Think of major trend as Big Boss and adding positions as Workers. Add more Workers along with the Big Boss. If Big Boss turns, take out Workers batches by batches.
I have an even simpler strategy - buy during major recessions / crises, e.g. 1997 AFC, 2000 dotcom bust, 2001 september-eleven, 2003 sars, 2008 lehman, and sell half to two-thirds during major euphoria (1996 property craze, 1999 dotcom craze, 2007 super bull run) which usually happens just before a major crisis.

You'll find that this is easier than going in and out of the market. If the market is unexciting, you just sit back and enjoy the dividends.

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