The Dynamics of the COE market in Singapore

Demand for new cars and COEs = fn (replacement demand, household income, stock market, property market, unemployment rate, job security, political and social stability, good government, economic growth, population, consumer preference and attitudes, expectation of future prices)

Supply of COEs and new cars = fn (replacement COE (determined by car deregistrations) + 0.25% annual growth rate)

Price of COEs is therefore determined by BOTH demand and supply functions (fn) and NOT just supply.

We have seen recently why even though the supply of COEs released into the market has increased, prices of COEs did not fall much and in fact continue its rising trend. This is not strange or unbelievable. Many commentators, who may not be trained in the Economics sciences, just look at the supply of COEs to wrongly conclude that prices of COEs will fall.

The fact that COE prices continue to remain firm and continue rising concludes that DEMAND is STRONG, VERY STRONG. It shows that people who scrapped their old cars will buy new cars. This REPLACEMENT DEMAND takes up the REPLACEMENT COE SUPPLY. The fact that COE prices rise means that ADDITIONAL DEMAND for new cars and COEs is FAR GREATER than the 0.25% annual growth of COEs.

What determines the strong REPLACEMENT DEMAND and ADDITIONAL DEMAND for new cars and COEs?

There are many factors and these are listed in the demand function above.

1. Household income – A rising household income in Singapore means that households can afford to own cars. Household incomes have generally increased over the past 10 years. It is common today for households with working couples to earn a combined $100,000 per annum. With such income, owning a $100,000 brand new car is not difficult as this means they are only spending $10,000 per year to own a car. This is only 10% of their income. If they spend another $10,000 per year on road tax, ERP charges, insurance, parking, maintenance and petrol, this is another 10% of income. Therefore the total cost for owning and using their car is only 20% of income. Compare this with taking the taxi. If each person spends $40 per day (go to work and back including booking fees), the couple would have to spend $19,200 per year. So, the opportunity cost of owning a car versus taking the taxi is small. On top of that, they will benefit from convenience and time savings. Private car ownership and usage is affordable, relative to today’s household income and taxi expenses.

2. Stock market and property market – When the stock market and property market do well, households can monetise their gains and use proceeds of their gains to buy new cars. Many people flip their properties, especially those who bought highly subsidised BTO flats, to earn big profits and hence enabling them to buy new cars. Eligible Singaporean households can buy cheap BTO flats TWICE. So lucky.

3. Low unemployment rate, job security, political and social stability, good government and healthy economic growth – These factors have given Singapore consumers the confidence to buy new cars.

4. Population – Higher population will translate to higher demand for new cars.

5. Consumer preference and attitude – New cars are generally seen as luxury goods for most people. Many people aspire to own cars, in particular new cars. Families with new cars gain respect from neighbours and family members. To be able to own a new car is a manifestation of success and social status. This has always been the case and will always be. More families are also buying two or more cars per household, given their needs. For instance, a professional couple may own two cars as each of them earn a high salary and they may need to move around in their respective jobs.

6. Expectation of future prices – In the immediate term, the expectation of a rise in car prices due to changes in the CEV scheme will drive many people at the sidelines to head to the showrooms to book their new cars now rather than in July 2015. In the longer term, there is also the expectation that COE prices will rise significantly in 2019 onwards due to the expected drought of COEs by then. Hence, those who want to avoid paying for $100,000 Cat A COEs will change to new cars NOW rather than in 2019 to avoid the scenario.

I hope this brief economic analysis helps those with little or no Economics knowledge in understanding how COE prices are determined. In summary, COE prices are determined by BOTH demand and supply and NOT just supply. Hence, COE prices will likely continue to remain firm and continue rising, assuming no major global economic shocks in the foreseeable future.