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Old 07-12-2013, 01:40 AM
dives
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Hi AJ,

No worries, I won't say you are completely out of the woods if situations go bad. But you have some safety net. Lets break it down to 3 different scenarios

1. Property market correct by 10 - 15%, Rental drops by 30%. You are safe in this region because you can lower rental by 50% and still have your safety net (savings) those who borrow on a dime will be impacted

2. Property Market corrects by 35 - 45%, Rental drops by 50%. This is where you will be at risk, banks may ask you to top up on your loan and that could be an upfront of a few 100K which would immediately force sale your assets. However generally if you pay your loans on time they will not do so but go after the defaulters

3. Property Market corrects by 50 - 60% - Worldwide depression scenario. At this stage only those with tons of cash will make it, even the normal families who moderately leverage will in deep crap. I.e newly married with 80% borrowed on the HDB with a regular white collared job.

The question is how likely are we to hit the respective scenario and how long will it last? That I leave you to decide,

Personally I feel the property market is due for some correction (mild scenario 1?) even if it does not prices will likely stagnant. However I choose to hold because my properties are in very good areas (Near towns/schools) which do not have dense condo's around. Tenants who stay there are want to because of the amenities not available anywhere else. Also new MRT lines are coming, I am quite okay to not cash in and just collect rental for the foreseeable future.

So you have to decide on your strategy, if your condo is located in a densely packed area and does not have any particular amenities i.e near Orchard, Upcoming MRT Lines (not existing), New shopping centers etc then perhaps you may want to cash in a little.

If it does have some draw then you can consider to hold on, you do have the means to hold out if things go south.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Unregistered View Post
dives,

Thanks very much for your analysis and advice - very insightful. (And your estimates on my numbers are pretty spot on.)

Guess you pointed out the crux of the matter - where do I think the market is headed? I can't tell, I suppose. (Unlike the many other prophets on this forum!). And I suppose you're saying that I'm sufficiently hedged, so even if it goes down , I should be OK.

Thanks again!

AJ
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