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  #435 (permalink)  
Old 07-11-2012, 10:05 PM
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Originally Posted by Unregistered View Post
actually i think they can calculate the ODDS. thats what singapore pools is doing. DOH.
but you make good points.
There's a slight difference. Those are betting odds not predictive odds.

What they do is to make certain assumptions in the absence of perfect information to come up with betting odds, not with the aim of predicting the outcome of the game, but for the aim of getting people to bet one way or another. Of course the odds must be reasonably fair such that you attract people to bet on both sides because you are basically aiming to make the spread, and not take a position either way.

And if you get more people on one side, you adjust the odds so that you get back to a riskless position.

So it's possible to come up with odds but if you are looking for reliably predictive odds, I maintain its not possible for open ended systems.

If you're looking for other examples, you can just go and pick up the economic forecasts from 20 banks over the past 10 yrs and compare their forecasts to the actual data numbers. Or pick up equity research reports for for com companies in the 90s.
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