Quote:
Originally Posted by Unregistered
This is the real world and not university, where everything falls into neat boxes and you are given all the assumptions.
If you think there is any one that can tell you there's a x% chance the property market is going down by y% in 1 year, you are a child.
There's no perfect information and even with perfect data projections, no one can give you stable correlations between the data to effect a reliable predictive model.
If in the face of the odds I've mentioned, you still want to buy, be my guest -it's your money and it's your life. Like I say, you could well be right, but I just wouldn't bet MY money on it.
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Hold on there, let’s get the picture straight here before pulling out all those sucker punches. Throwing an offhand statement that the REAL world works differently seems like a blatant attempt to prop up an argument that made no sense.
You started off recommending to others to hold on to cash and wait for 3 years property price to go down then buy. Together with this recommendation, you made several disparaging remarks on forumers who are bullish on property basically saying you’ve got the analysis worked out, investment is more than just buy & hold, good old days are over etc etc.
When challenged to flesh out your so called investment logic to back up your advice that property prices will drop the next few years, you then claimed that you are not into market timing but specifically emphasize to us that you’ve done calculations on the odds and you “play the probabilities” based on your analysis and economic rationale. So this brings me to my post #408 which I specifically asked you to share with us these so called calculations and probabilities.
You responded in #411 with totally ZERO evidence of any calculations on probabilities. Instead you listed down some generic things that everyone knows like interest rate is low, government is trying to cool down, global economic uncertainty etc and then just humtum either “for” or “against”. No numbers, no research, no trend analysis, no residential market insights - just a bunch of “for” and “against” personal judgments followed by a sudden conclusion that the odds are “against” for properties.
In #413, I asked you again the same question – where are the calculations you claim you did before arriving at your recommendation? This brings us to your latest post in #416, a highly condescending personal attack about me being childish don’t know anything about the real world etc. I have asked hard hitting questions on your investment thesis which I think is just as arbitrary and flawed as the buy-and-hold crowd which you condemned earlier, but I have so far not made an form of personal attack against you. I treat this latest tirade as a sign that you got caught swimming naked and now trying to back pedal.
Your excuse on how you cannot calculate probabilities due to the lack of perfect data and predictive model is like – duh!?!?!. I mean, if data and model is perfect, then that’s not called probability, it’s called prophecy. Even if you are unable to arrive at a defined x%, I was hoping at least there’s more thought process and research numbers to demonstrate you at least made an attempt to quantify the odds and a comparison of the expected returns on both alternatives.
Instead we get shaft with a so what attitude of “be my guest -it's your money and it's your life.” Yea we know that, can we have the calculations now please?