Quote:
Originally Posted by Unregistered
I believe with the guy who said property price will triple in value over the next 30 years.
5 room HDB flats in 1980 cost about $80k and now the 30 plus old flat is worth $700k plus, that's about 9 times appreciation.
So a triple in value over the next 30 years is not impossible, bearing in mind that the value of paper money depreciates with inflation, ie over the years the purchasing power of your paper money is lower and lower every year.
I myself just bought a condo costing me $1.2m, very cheap given its upside potential. |
That's true
HDB has appreciated a lot since 1980s, but then again, its because of the below stimuli:-
1)
Reasonable price to income ratio: In 1980s,
HDB was about $80k, but starting salary of a fresh grad was about $1.3k. So that's about $2.6k assuming a graduate couple, or about $31k per annum. So, that's about a 2.6x price to income ratio ($80k divided by $30k), well within the recommended 3x. Today, the same ratio is about 4.2x ($300k divided by $72k, or a couple each earning $3k per month), which is about the level we saw in the US right before the subprime bubble burst.
2) Interest Rate: Back in the 1980s, we routinely saw interest rates close to, and sometimes above 10%. Today rates are sub 1%. Not much room to go down further.
3) Third world to first: Then, we were 3rd world, with 3rd world prices and plenty of room to grow. Today, we are first world, with one of the highest GDP per capita in the world.
4) Arbitrage: In 1980s, a person working in Australia earned 5 times the salary of a person in Singapore. Easy for people overseas to come here to buy properties. Today, Singaporeans in the same role earn more than Australians on a tax adjusted basis, and are happy (or rather, in most cases, have no choice but) to pour all the excess cash into property.
So, to be frank, which of the above stimuli do you still see ? Where do you see the driver for this big upside you are hoping for ?
If you bought in 2006, well, you are well on your way to achieving 3x, but if you just bought your property, good luck with that target.