I think if you start off as a GTP aka graduate program,
After rotation it is almost certain that you will hit avp3 unless you are super buay kan or go offend someone powerful.

After all this is a fast track program to groom future leaders.

For lateral hires definitely slower and no guarantee. That said if you cannot make it to avp in say 7-8 years I think you will leave unless you are those bank tellers kind.