Quote:
Originally Posted by Unregistered
you sound like you believe property crash or recession is nearing. then again, so were the agents back in 2009. then again, they didn't come true.
when USA comes through with yet another QE3, the hot money will yet again flow into Asia countries, and exactly where do they go to?
a) property
b) gold
as such, as long as we have this 'QE' again and again, the prices will continue to shoot up again, fundamentals or not.
Of course, they cannot sustain... but when will it happen? 2 yrs? 5 yrs? who knows another 10 years before the crash? by then, yes, the crash will come, but gosh, you would be wasting another 10 yrs waiting for the prices to correct itself and ... how miserable these 10 years are.
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Fair enough. I grant you that I have no idea when the crash is going to come, and I have admitted as much.
In life, you never know anything for certain, but you play the odds as best you can, and then you hope for the best. Today, you have most indicators pointing to an overpriced market, and one (continued excess liquidity) pointing to further potential upside.
So with such odds I rather sit on the sidelines and wait for the downturn in peace, as opposed to jump into the mkt hoping for a small uptick in pricing, and exposing myself to a large downside risk and many sleepless nights.
On the off chance that prices jump another 30%, I'm at peace with myself cos I made a carefully and rationally considered decision not to go in. On the other hand, if I jump in and prices fall 30%, I will kick myself for following the crowd even when I as aware of all the obvious red flags.