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Movenment of investments from private property to HDBs?

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Old 12-04-2012, 02:00 PM
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Default Movenment of investments from private property to HDBs?

Hi guys, as you all have read from the news or other portals, we can see a decline in demand for private houses, as stated with the fall in prices of private property for the first time in 3 years.

This may be due to certain factors.
1. Government have improved HDBs with the BTO and DBSS flats, which brings about a wide variation of HDBs which fulfills 2 important criteria when purchasing homes, comfort and price.

2. The rise in HDBs price have been more drastic compared to the rise in prices for Private property. Here is some statistics. In the past 5 years prices of HDBs increased by 84% while Private property 42%, which result in more people investing in HDBs which brings about faster and more Significant returns. ( source )
Moreover the lower prices of HDBs brings about less risk as well.

as we look into current HDB prices.
the recent 880k for a HDB in Tampines, (source)
To recent 900k sales of HDBs (source)
as we can see, there is in deed a rising trend for HDBS

This is my own personal opinion of the subject matter please feel free to give your opinions as well.

Thank you

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Old 23-05-2012, 10:28 AM
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Nice one PayBuddy. This is such a big help.You made everyone who is confused about this to understand. Keep it up!

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Old 23-05-2012, 12:12 PM
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You have started a topic of intense debate. You will find people on both sides of the camp. Some think that prices will continue going up whereas others will tell you that housing prices will collapse.

1. You pointed out that housing prices have declined. You are probably referring to the URA PPI index. If you drill down into the numbers, you will realise that for 1Q12, the price decline is largely from the CCR region. The OCR and RCR regions actually went up. OCR is your common proxy for mass-market. Think: Watertown, Skyhabitat, Seletar Park Residences & Bedok Residences. Sound familiar? All $psf benchmarket breakers in their own right.

2. Prior to the ABSD, there was the SSD (16%,12%,8%,4%). This two combined has achieved two things: 1. Dampened resale/subsales. 2 Weed off foreigners. Nevertheless, the short fall from resale activity and foreign purchases have been offset by Singaporeans + PRs in the primary sales segment. Record Jan-Apr pre-sales numbers. Average 2,500 p/m versus 1,400 average in 2010/11.

Hmmm.. then you think hey maybe prices are not going to fall. Then you look at:

1. Greek elections coming up in June. Unemployment in Spain at 30%. EU is still fundamentally screwed.
2. Stock prices falling sharply. So if asset prices move together, what happens to property prices?
3. China is all that is bright but increasing signs that all is not as pretty as it seems.
4. Banks again appears to be headed for trouble. How many % of unemployment in SG relates to financial services? Sizeable.

Then you think.. are we approaching the edge of the cliff?

In 3Q2008, when things turn bad they turn bad rapidly..

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Old 23-05-2012, 12:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Unregistered View Post
You have started a topic of intense debate. You will find people on both sides of the camp. Some think that prices will continue going up whereas others will tell you that housing prices will collapse.

1. You pointed out that housing prices have declined. You are probably referring to the URA PPI index. If you drill down into the numbers, you will realise that for 1Q12, the price decline is largely from the CCR region. The OCR and RCR regions actually went up. OCR is your common proxy for mass-market. Think: Watertown, Skyhabitat, Seletar Park Residences & Bedok Residences. Sound familiar? All $psf benchmarket breakers in their own right.

2. Prior to the ABSD, there was the SSD (16%,12%,8%,4%). This two combined has achieved two things: 1. Dampened resale/subsales. 2 Weed off foreigners. Nevertheless, the short fall from resale activity and foreign purchases have been offset by Singaporeans + PRs in the primary sales segment. Record Jan-Apr pre-sales numbers. Average 2,500 p/m versus 1,400 average in 2010/11.

Hmmm.. then you think hey maybe prices are not going to fall. Then you look at:

1. Greek elections coming up in June. Unemployment in Spain at 30%. EU is still fundamentally screwed.
2. Stock prices falling sharply. So if asset prices move together, what happens to property prices?
3. China is all that is bright but increasing signs that all is not as pretty as it seems.
4. Banks again appears to be headed for trouble. How many % of unemployment in SG relates to financial services? Sizeable.

Then you think.. are we approaching the edge of the cliff?

In 3Q2008, when things turn bad they turn bad rapidly..
The problems that you mentioned 1,2,3,4 are already contained and factored into the efficient stock and property markets. So no worries there. Buy now, before you regret when you can't afford it anymore.
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