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06-01-2015, 09:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Unregistered
Good news!
Oil prices plunging again and this means the price of petrol will also plunge. This makes owning and running a car much, much cheaper. Since taxi fare rates did not fall, it is now better to own and drive your own brand new car than to give away your hard earned money to taxi uncles. Also you don't have to worry about not getting a taxi when it rains or during peak hours.
COE prices will conitinue to rise further as more people are buying new cars.
Supply for COE for 2015 is 100,000. But demand is more than 100,000, maybe 200,000 or even 300,000. The rise is demand for car is due to these factors:
1. Families are getting richer as income has shot up over the past 10 years. Many families own more than one car. Some even 3 or 4 cars as more members are now working in the family.
2. Oil prices now very cheap.
3. Population growth which means higher demand for cars.
4. Young graduates earning a lot more. The good ones can even start earning $10k pm.
5. Families made lots of profits flipping their BTO flat. For example they bought their BTO flat 5 years ago at $200k. Today they sell at $500k and then buy a 2nd BTO at $300k. So they first made profit of $300k and for for their 2nd BTO, they only need to pay 20% downpayment, some more can pay some using CPF. So, they have lots of cash in hand. So many of them use their surplus cash to buy brand new cars. Very cheap only $100k - $200k and they can take 50% loan. So need only cash of $50k - $60k. So easy since they have cash from flipping their BTO flat. So cheap BTO flats will drive demand up and up!
6. Many people desire to buy new cars to show off as a symbol of their success.
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Sounds good. I wanna buy car. Can buy from you?
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06-01-2015, 10:55 PM
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Old ST article on Car Population
Since the "resident" car salesman is very persistent in spreading "fear" about the rise in COE price, I did a little "research" on which way the COE price is likely to go, going forward.
I thought the below article from Straits Times might give some insight:
Two main points i picked out from the article:
1. The government has practiced "clawback" of COE supply before. Basically what this meant was the COE supply was deliberately spread over a longer period to prevent a glut situation in any given period.
2. There is a high possibility the government would use this "clawback" tactic again to curb the supply to keep the numbers steady. That means a glut in supply is not likely to happen. COE supply will increase because of higher deregistrations, but the numbers of COE will be spread out over a longer period.
With the above 2 points in mind, coupled with a further reduction of car population growth rate to 0.25%, it is looking like our "resident" car salesman may be right.
Christopher Tan | The Straits Times | Monday, Aug 4, 2014
Singapore's vehicle population has shrunk for the first time in more than 10 years, with car numbers showing the sharpest drop.
Land Transport Authority statistics showed that the total vehicle population stood at 971,871 at end-June - 0.2 per cent down from 974,170 at the end of last year.
The private car cohort shrank by 0.4 per cent to 604,633, from 607,292.
Motor industry watchers attribute the rare contraction - the first since 2002 - to the small supply of certificates of entitlement (COEs).
While starting to expand after seven consecutive years of shrinkage, the COE supply is still among the smallest in the last decade.
This has to do partly with the Government's decision to restrict annual vehicle population growth rate to only 0.5 per cent - down sharply from 3 per cent.
Not only that, industry players said there has been a clawback of COEs to make up for an oversupply in 2008 and 2009.
Singapore Vehicle Traders Association secretary Raymond Tang said another contributing reason could be that "at the moment, many cars are booked, but stocks have not arrived".
Hence the population contraction.
Besides private cars, the numbers of buses, goods vehicles and motorcycles have also been shrinking.
On the other hand, the taxi population grew marginally, but the rental car population truly bucked the trend by growing 6.5 per cent to 17,458.
Motor traders said the rise in the rental fleet is fuelled by robust tourist arrivals and a growing expatriate community.
In fact, the rental car population is more than double its size just nine years ago.
Mr Neo Nam Heng, chairman of rental firm Prime Leasing, said his fleet has been growing by about 15 per cent a year.
"Three years ago, we had around 700 cars, today, we have 1,000," he said. "There's been a lot of expatriates coming in."
Looking ahead, industry players said the vehicle population shrinkage may come to a halt once the clawback of oversupplied COEs is completed next year.
However, much depends on whether the Government will defer the release of an expected bonanza supply of COEs that will come on stream from next year.
Transport Minister Lui Tuck Yew had said that he would prefer to keep some COEs for the next "dry spell" in 2019-2022.
Mr Tang of the Singapore Vehicle Traders Association said if a percentage of COEs is kept for later years, the vehicle population contraction will continue. In fact, it may become more severe.
While the market speculates that the Government might defer 20 to 50 per cent of the COEs due in the bonanza years of next year to 2017, Mr Tang reckons some clarity will emerge towards the end of the year.
"I think by January, they will probably announce something," he added.
This article was first published on August 4, 201
- See more at: ://transport.asiaone.com/news/general/story/fewer-vehicles-singapore-roads#sthash.9p3x0Uel.dpuf
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06-01-2015, 11:11 PM
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King Says Saudi Arabia to Deal with Weak Oil Challenge with 'Firm Will'
RIYADH, Jan 6 (Reuters) – Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah said on Tuesday the world's top oil exporter would deal "with a firm will" with the challenge posed by lower oil prices in a speech read on his behalf by Crown Prince Salman and broadcast on state television.
"You cannot be blind to the tensions in the global oil markets... these are not new developments and we have dealt with it in the past with a firm will and wisdom... and we will deal with the new developments in the same vein," he said.
ICE Brent crude futures were down to $51.78 a barrel on Tuesday after closing at $53.11 on Monday, down 54 percent since a 2014 peak on June 19 of $115.06 a barrel.
He said lower prices were caused by many factors, of which the most important was weakness in the global economy, and said that Saudi Arabia had faced similar market conditions before.
Saudi Arabia said last month it would not cut output to prop up oil markets even if non-OPEC nations did so, leading to criticism from some other members of the group of producers who want Riyadh to act to defend prices.
The kingdom issued an expansionary 2015 budget late last month that anticipated a deficit and Finance Minister Ibrahim Alassaf said in a pre-budget statement the kingdom could handle lower oil prices thanks to its high level of reserves.
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07-01-2015, 04:11 PM
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as expected, all COE categories are UP !!!!!
in the 2nd Jan 2015 bidding, prices will shoot up due to the huge demand from the Singapore Motor Show (15 - 18 Jan 2015).
those who already bought their new car, CONGRATS !!!!
those who listened to the guy who said COE will drop to $30k, TOO BAD !!!!!!!
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07-01-2015, 07:16 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Unregistered
you can laugh now, but please comeback in mid 2016. it will drop to $30k.
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don't fool yourself. LOL.
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07-01-2015, 08:00 PM
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Typical Singaporean mentality
My family and I plan to move from our landed home this year to a condo to take advantage of our landed property price. Our landed property price rose too much and we decided to take profit and so we can make 100m dollars. After that we will move to a new condo and pay for it in cash. We are going to enjoy staying in a condo because of the beautiful landscaping and the amenities in Sentosa Cove.
We realized that living in our landed home had a few advantages: (1) we can park many cars in our compound (2) people walk pass and stop there looking at our home to admire (3) DIY little at the garden to sweat (4) enjoying high standard of living (5) keep 5 dogs (6) private security with Gurka (7) Driver by the side. The only not so good thing about staying in too big landed property is must communicate with family members using hand phone.
When my wife and I finally retire, we plan to retire in a condo not because we love condo living too much. We rather stay in a small studio condo unit rather than moving to a even bigger bungalow in the park. I will be able to see my wife every moment as and when I like, minus the telephone communication as what we are doing now. We then buy a studio condo unit for $800k, we will have $100m cash to buy dividend stocks which can give us dividends.
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07-01-2015, 08:03 PM
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Typical Singaporean mentality, kiasi, kiasu
Oil prices plunging again and this means the price of petrol will also plunge. This makes owning and running a car much, much cheaper. Since taxi fare rates did not fall, it is now better to own and drive your own brand new car than to give away your hard earned money to taxi uncles. Also you don't have to worry about not getting a taxi when it rains or during peak hours.
COE prices will conitinue to rise further as more people are buying new cars.
Supply for COE for 2015 is 100,000. But demand is more than 100,000, maybe 200,000 or even 300,000. The rise is demand for car is due to these factors:
1. Families are getting richer as income has shot up over the past 10 years. Many families own more than one car. Some even 3 or 4 cars as more members are now working in the family.
2. Oil prices now very cheap.
3. Population growth which means higher demand for cars.
4. Young graduates earning a lot more. The good ones can even start earning $10k pm.
5. Families made lots of profits flipping their BTO flat. For example they bought their BTO flat 5 years ago at $200k. Today they sell at $500k and then buy a 2nd BTO at $300k. So they first made profit of $300k and for for their 2nd BTO, they only need to pay 20% downpayment, some more can pay some using CPF. So, they have lots of cash in hand. So many of them use their surplus cash to buy brand new cars. Very cheap only $100k - $200k and they can take 50% loan. So need only cash of $50k - $60k. So easy since they have cash from flipping their BTO flat. So cheap BTO flats will drive demand up and up!
6. Many people desire to buy new cars to show off as a symbol of their success.
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07-01-2015, 10:41 PM
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Lower middle income couple, 47/49, combined income from both active and passive sources (including returns from CPF), $170k pa. Savings $30k pa.
Humble condo worth $1.1m, loan outstanding $230k.
Car worth only $120k, no loan. Holidays, twice a year, $20k pa.
Children are in secondary schools.
Combined net worth, $1.5m.
How are we doing?
Any financial gurus care to comment?
How can we prepare for retirement at 60?
Thank you.
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08-01-2015, 12:34 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Unregistered
Lower middle income couple, 47/49, combined income from both active and passive sources (including returns from CPF), $170k pa. Savings $30k pa.
Humble condo worth $1.1m, loan outstanding $230k.
Car worth only $120k, no loan. Holidays, twice a year, $20k pa.
Children are in secondary schools.
Combined net worth, $1.5m.
How are we doing?
Any financial gurus care to comment?
How can we prepare for retirement at 60?
Thank you.
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How many times this same person going to post the same thing? If not mistaken it is the 25th times since 5 May 2014.
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