Whether COE price will drop or not next year or the year after next is really dependent on the economy.

However the following are facts that we faced:

1. What we know is that many cars will reach their 10 years next year and the year after that. The thing is we don't know is whether LTA will recycle all the COEs at the same time or spread out them over a longer period. Meaning that they might inject only a controlled number of COEs each time, so end up, no bumper COE supply.

2. LTA has decreased the car population growth by 0.5% for 2014. For 2015, they are further reducing the growth to 0.25%.

3. Many people who are scrapping their cars will still be booking new or getting another used car. A small survey among my friends, colleagues and neighbors confirmed this. Some of my neighbors are already retired and they still say they need a car!

4. There is indeed a growing number of families owning 2 cars or more, simply because the parents are working longer and children entering the workforce. Last time, people will retire even before their children enter the workforce, now it seems common among families to have children and parents working.

Below is an extract from LTA website on their stance regarding the car population in Singapore.

"With 12 per cent of Singapore’s total land area already taken up by roads, there is limited scope for any further expansion of the road network. Priority for road growth will be given to serve new development areas and to facilitate bus movements to bring about a better public transport experience. The latter supports ongoing efforts to improve the quality and connectivity of our public transport network, which is set to undergo significant expansion over the next few years. Therefore, it is not tenable to keep to the same rates of vehicle population growth as before. Already, the number of vehicles on our roads is drawing near to one million.
In view of this, the Land Transport Authority (LTA) will lower the vehicle growth rate. From February 2015 to January 2018, the annual vehicle growth rate will be lowered from the current 0.5% to 0.25%. This will be reviewed again in 2017."

Our car population is too high given our small island. We lose billions of dollars from lower productivity and loss businesses due to road congestion. I suggest we need to taper our car population growth and move more people to MRT and buses. We are going to open many new MRT lines to allow more people to take the MRT. Our car population is simply too high. Here is what it should be for car population growth:

2015 +0.25%
2017 0%
2018 -0.25%
2019 -0.5%
2020 -1%
2021 -3%
2022 -2%
2023 -3%
2024 -5%

Our car population must drop by at least 20% over the next 10 years.

1. More than 100k cars to be scrapped in 2015. Even LTA release 3/4 of these, it is still 3-4 times more than 2014.
2. 0.25% is still a +ve growth in car population. This growth rate is higher than our population growth rate.
3. Many people are giving up cars as their kids have grown up and dont need cars to ferry them around
4. Youngsters going to workforce will think twice to pay for 50k downpayment and use 1/3 of their monthly salary to service their car loan -esp now with the TDSR in place

Can't agree that as children grow up, the family doesn't need the car.

This is more what I know.

1. Kids before primary 1: bring them to kindergarten/child care. In fact, most families will choose one near their homes, so they don't need the car for this. The car is more for weekends visits to grandparents. Depending on how many kids, this phase can last a good 10 years.

2. Kids in primary school. Got school bus, so actually no need to ferry them to school. Again car only needed for family outing during weekends

3. Kids in secondary schools. No more school bus. Some more kids now got CCA that can end quite late. Most parents would send / pick up their children from these activities. Now tuition classes become more urgent

4. Kids in JC / poly. They are bigger now, and they want to go out with friends, so actually don't need car, but again for weekend outings, it is definitely more convenient and comfortable to have family car. In fact, at this stage we actually purchase a weekend MPV in addition to my compact saloon car. Need the MPV now because grandparents gave up their cars and need to fetch them for outings too.

5. Kids in uni / working. They don't need the car, but you want it because you getting old and less mobile to fight with crowd when going to and coming back from work. Main thing is once you are used to owning and driving a car, it is damned hard to give it up.

adviseandadvices.blogspot.sg
 

Indeed. Gov should reduce the car population.

Private vehicles should be for the middle high income group only. It has always been the case until the introduction on OPC vehicle. Suddenly, everyone owns or wants to own a car despite the low income.

Cars are luxury items, not a necessity.

COE will drop to below $40k as soon as the quota hits 2,000 per bidding group, which will happen soon. It will happen dont need to argue over here..

I'm a typical average middle class worker working in a small company and earning $4k pm. My wife is also working in a similar type company and she is earning $5k pm. We bought our flat at $200k only. We have two kids in primary school. We are now in our late forties. One day we will upgrade our lives. We aspire to live in an EC.

Shell & Google chosen as top employer in Singapore: channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/singaporeans-would-like/1547104.html

Sometimes I really wonder if Singaporeans are just dumb, too narrow minded or only know how to go for normal brands they see in their everyday life.

Google & Shell are average MNCs - so so in terms of pay, career prospect and reputation. But honestly they cannot even come close to the top international banks, I think most people don't even have slightest idea of how things work and just go for normal brands they see in their everyday life.

Since it is okay to talk nonsense, I would like to inform everyone that I like oranges more than apples. Thanks.

Shell pay and reputation so so? Boy boy what have you been smoking lately? Even their blue collars make more than most professionals / managers in Singapore.