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29-07-2014, 11:05 AM
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Inflation - did you consider it?
Inflation has been frequently presented in a negative light. This is mostly true if you are caught on the wrong side of it. For eg, if you currently keep all your money in the bank savings deposits or FDs, you will end up with a lower purchasing power at the end of the tenure. On the other hand, if you have invested your money in some assets, you will find to your delight that they have appreciated in value in part due to inflation.
Our gahmen tells us, on the one hand, yearly inflation is around 2%, but decided it was necessary to raise the CPF minimum sum by 4.7% to $155k from $148k the year before!! The reason they gave -- to account for inflation!
So what is the true inflation rate? It does not really matter if we are vested in some assets that can keep pace or out-pace inflation. Till 3 years ago, investing in property was a good bet against inflation. Now with the cooling measures suppressing demand, the prices have been moderating. But personally I think property prices will still go up in the long term. The world population is growing, the middle class and rich class are growing. Singapore population may not be growing as rapidly, but like many developed countries, selective immigration will be practised to keep the economy humming along.
Investing in companies which are sound and dynamic is another way to leverage on inflation. Companies will raise the prices of their goods and services to keep pace with inflation. Their share prices will grow, and those with dividends pay out will be an added bonus.
I see many posters here setting financial goals (for their retirement) here without mentioning how they will account for inflationary effects. They should factor inflation in, otherwise they could face some nasty surprises in their golden years.
Let me give some examples here. Mr and Mrs Lim said they are happy to live a simple lifestyle in retirement with a monthly stipend of $3K (for both them) at 65. They expected to live till 85 or 20 years in retirement. Based on this, the amount to set aside would be $3k x 12 x 20 = $720K. This is the amount they need without factoring in inflation effect!
But if you factor in just an inflation rate of 2% per year, this will be the amount they need: $1.53M. So you see, if Mr and Mrs Lim did not account for inflation, they will run of money in half the time they planned for their retirement.
Another example: Upper middle class Mr and Mrs Lee estimated they would be happy to live on $8k per month, because they still want a car, a maid and an overseas holidays. Again they will retire at 65, and expected to live 20 years in retirement. The amount they would need (without inflation) : $8K x 12 x 20 = $1.92M
With an inflation of just 2% pa, the amount Mr and Mrs Lee really needed would be: $4.58M!!
This is sobering. And I have been reminding people not to ignore the deleterious effects of inflation. And to be more realistic with their lifestyle choice in retirement. It will be really terrible to run out of money mid way through retirement because getting back to work will be very difficult then! One way out is to make sure your retirement savings are well invested with assets that can keep pace with inflation.
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29-07-2014, 11:16 AM
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Sorry people, some corrections to the calculations. The value provided was for 30 years, the correct values for 20 years are inserted below.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Unregistered
Inflation has been frequently presented in a negative light. This is mostly true if you are caught on the wrong side of it. For eg, if you currently keep all your money in the bank savings deposits or FDs, you will end up with a lower purchasing power at the end of the tenure. On the other hand, if you have invested your money in some assets, you will find to your delight that they have appreciated in value in part due to inflation.
Our gahmen tells us, on the one hand, yearly inflation is around 2%, but decided it was necessary to raise the CPF minimum sum by 4.7% to $155k from $148k the year before!! The reason they gave -- to account for inflation!
So what is the true inflation rate? It does not really matter if we are vested in some assets that can keep pace or out-pace inflation. Till 3 years ago, investing in property was a good bet against inflation. Now with the cooling measures suppressing demand, the prices have been moderating. But personally I think property prices will still go up in the long term. The world population is growing, the middle class and rich class are growing. Singapore population may not be growing as rapidly, but like many developed countries, selective immigration will be practised to keep the economy humming along.
Investing in companies which are sound and dynamic is another way to leverage on inflation. Companies will raise the prices of their goods and services to keep pace with inflation. Their share prices will grow, and those with dividends pay out will be an added bonus.
I see many posters here setting financial goals (for their retirement) here without mentioning how they will account for inflationary effects. They should factor inflation in, otherwise they could face some nasty surprises in their golden years.
Let me give some examples here. Mr and Mrs Lim said they are happy to live a simple lifestyle in retirement with a monthly stipend of $3K (for both them) at 65. They expected to live till 85 or 20 years in retirement. Based on this, the amount to set aside would be $3k x 12 x 20 = $720K. This is the amount they need without factoring in inflation effect!
But if you factor in just an inflation rate of 2% per year, this will be the amount they need: $1.53M (correct value -- $928K). So you see, if Mr and Mrs Lim did not account for inflation, they will run of money in half the time they planned for their retirement.
Another example: Upper middle class Mr and Mrs Lee estimated they would be happy to live on $8k per month, because they still want a car, a maid and an overseas holidays. Again they will retire at 65, and expected to live 20 years in retirement. The amount they would need (without inflation) : $8K x 12 x 20 = $1.92M
With an inflation of just 2% pa, the amount Mr and Mrs Lee really needed would be: $4.58M (correct value -- $2.78M)!!
This is sobering. And I have been reminding people not to ignore the deleterious effects of inflation. And to be more realistic with their lifestyle choice in retirement. It will be really terrible to run out of money mid way through retirement because getting back to work will be very difficult then! One way out is to make sure your retirement savings are well invested with assets that can keep pace with inflation.
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29-07-2014, 12:57 PM
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Junior Member
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Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Singapore
Posts: 6
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Interests rate is bound to rise next year more or less, following good news from the US side.
However, housing prices are on a downward trend yet to recover.
Oh well...
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29-07-2014, 02:45 PM
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Good for you. Very pragmatic and realistic. No money in this world can buy you true happiness. Being in a rat race is indeed lousy as you will always be a rat. With financial independence you are free to pursue other more meaningful interest. Make sure your dividends keep up with inflation. Stocks have good ability to move with inflation. Companies with pricing power will adjust their prices with inflation.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Unregistered
Two years ago, we got fed up of the rat race. We sold our landed property and downgraded to a 4 room HDB flat. We cleared all our debt and paid the flat in full. After all transactions, we had a nice pile of money which we invested in the stock market to earn a decent amount of dividends from quality blue chips. Now our dividends amount to $100k pa.
Since we no longer have any loans and we sold our car, our spendings is only $60k pa. My family now living a peaceful, blissful debt free life. We love our friendly neighbours. We have set aside enough for pur kids to further their Uni education. Our investment portfolio and savings and dividends continue to grow steadily every year. We are now 52 & 55 this year.
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29-07-2014, 03:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Unregistered
Now is the best time to upgrade to a condo as prices have fallen to its lowest level in recent years. You can buy penthouse condo costing an affordable $2m, paid in cash.
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Not interested in property now, maybe in a few years time.
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29-07-2014, 04:31 PM
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Very Sobering Indeed
Hi all,
Not sure if many of the things here have been exaggerated to make the person feel good while posting it, but this is really sobering for me.
I'm a hard worker, poor investor. I'll never be rich and it's too late for me.
Here is my real story. I hope the bros who read this don't feel too discouraged with all the millionaires posting on this thread.
Father left family when I was 12. Mother brought up brother and me by herself. I did only average in school and but I didn't get into a local university as we could not afford it. Started working after A-levels to help put my younger brother (6 years younger than me) through university. He is now a President's scholar and has his life ahead of him, and I am so proud of him.
I'm 35 yrs old male Chinese. I make only $108k/annum before bonuses ($130-140k/annum after bonus and after deducting income tax).
-----
I started off as a waiter in in 1999 earning $900/month at 19. ($14k/annum including tips)
I moved to bartending earning $2100/month in 2005 at 25. ($26k/annum)
I got a big break on Christmas eve, 2007 from a guy who asked me to join him in Chemicals trading.
In 2008, I got my first paycheck as a Junior Chemicals Trader (Aromatics), $4000/month. I was 29.
Got married at 30, cleaned out my bank account to pay for everything. Earning $4500/month.
At 33, after ex-wife had 2 miscarriages and my marriage fell apart, got divorced.
Cleared out my bank to pay for lawyers. I lost the car, I kept the house. I have to pay SGD 1,200/month for 36 months. On the day I signed the divorce papers, I had $86 left in my bank account.
At 34 I have moved to another company after the guy that brought me into the industry felt jaded and tired and left the industry totally at 55yrs old. Salary increased from $5500/month to $7500/month.
I am now 35, and I now make SGD 8250/month before bonus and my alimony payments will end in 10 months time.
I own the 3-room flat (bought $218k, current value $320k) I live in by myself. Divorced once, no kids. total of SGD 36k in savings only.
My current expenditure is:
$2000/month to mother for her allowance
$1200/month to ex-wife for alimony
$500/month for investment-insurance nonsense
$700/month for comprehensive life insurance/healthcare plan
$1000/month goes into CPF drain that I will never see
$500/month for internet/tv/power/phone
$500/month in taxi/bus/drinks with friends
--------
$6400/month in costs.
Balance $1850/month average, give or take $300 +/-
It all goes into savings. with bonus, and without going on holidays, I expect to save about $50k/year for the next 3-5 years.
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29-07-2014, 06:16 PM
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Super Member
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Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 335
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Unregistered
Sorry people, some corrections to the calculations. The value provided was for 30 years, the correct values for 20 years are inserted below.
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Bored. Did some calculations. Think the correct numbers are as below.
Month Lee Lim
1 3000 8000
2 3005 8013
3 3010 8027
4 3015 8040
5 3020 8053
6 3025 8067
240 4467 11911
Total 884,391 2,358,375
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29-07-2014, 07:04 PM
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Super Member
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Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 335
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Bored. Dont be too hard of yourself. See the big picture. You are not doing too bad. See below.
I think you are tired out because of the failed relationship.
Well, i can say hang on. there will be always someone there.
Cash Savings 1,850
CPF Savings ee contribution 1,000
CPF Savings Employer contribution 800
Current Savings now 3,650
Savings after 10 months 36,500
Add Ailmony money 1,200
Savings per year - 15 month basis 72,750
Savings 5 years 400,250 <Age around 40+
Savings 10 years 764,000 <Age around 50+
Savings 15 years 1,127,750 <Age around 55+
Quote:
Originally Posted by Real Information
Hi all,
Not sure if many of the things here have been exaggerated to make the person feel good while posting it, but this is really sobering for me.
I'm a hard worker, poor investor. I'll never be rich and it's too late for me.
Here is my real story. I hope the bros who read this don't feel too discouraged with all the millionaires posting on this thread.
Father left family when I was 12. Mother brought up brother and me by herself. I did only average in school and but I didn't get into a local university as we could not afford it. Started working after A-levels to help put my younger brother (6 years younger than me) through university. He is now a President's scholar and has his life ahead of him, and I am so proud of him.
I'm 35 yrs old male Chinese. I make only $108k/annum before bonuses ($130-140k/annum after bonus and after deducting income tax).
-----
I started off as a waiter in in 1999 earning $900/month at 19. ($14k/annum including tips)
I moved to bartending earning $2100/month in 2005 at 25. ($26k/annum)
I got a big break on Christmas eve, 2007 from a guy who asked me to join him in Chemicals trading.
In 2008, I got my first paycheck as a Junior Chemicals Trader (Aromatics), $4000/month. I was 29.
Got married at 30, cleaned out my bank account to pay for everything. Earning $4500/month.
At 33, after ex-wife had 2 miscarriages and my marriage fell apart, got divorced.
Cleared out my bank to pay for lawyers. I lost the car, I kept the house. I have to pay SGD 1,200/month for 36 months. On the day I signed the divorce papers, I had $86 left in my bank account.
At 34 I have moved to another company after the guy that brought me into the industry felt jaded and tired and left the industry totally at 55yrs old. Salary increased from $5500/month to $7500/month.
I am now 35, and I now make SGD 8250/month before bonus and my alimony payments will end in 10 months time.
I own the 3-room flat (bought $218k, current value $320k) I live in by myself. Divorced once, no kids. total of SGD 36k in savings only.
My current expenditure is:
$2000/month to mother for her allowance
$1200/month to ex-wife for alimony
$500/month for investment-insurance nonsense
$700/month for comprehensive life insurance/healthcare plan
$1000/month goes into CPF drain that I will never see
$500/month for internet/tv/power/phone
$500/month in taxi/bus/drinks with friends
--------
$6400/month in costs.
Balance $1850/month average, give or take $300 +/-
It all goes into savings. with bonus, and without going on holidays, I expect to save about $50k/year for the next 3-5 years.
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29-07-2014, 08:35 PM
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You are very lucky as you still have a job and a home. There are people who are retrenched and still jobless or they are forced to drive a taxi. There are people who fell from their high social status, they had to downgrade from a penthouse condo to a 2 room condo after losing their job.
So, be thankful that you are still employed and can save a big sum every year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Real Information
Hi all,
Not sure if many of the things here have been exaggerated to make the person feel good while posting it, but this is really sobering for me.
I'm a hard worker, poor investor. I'll never be rich and it's too late for me.
Here is my real story. I hope the bros who read this don't feel too discouraged with all the millionaires posting on this thread.
Father left family when I was 12. Mother brought up brother and me by herself. I did only average in school and but I didn't get into a local university as we could not afford it. Started working after A-levels to help put my younger brother (6 years younger than me) through university. He is now a President's scholar and has his life ahead of him, and I am so proud of him.
I'm 35 yrs old male Chinese. I make only $108k/annum before bonuses ($130-140k/annum after bonus and after deducting income tax).
-----
I started off as a waiter in in 1999 earning $900/month at 19. ($14k/annum including tips)
I moved to bartending earning $2100/month in 2005 at 25. ($26k/annum)
I got a big break on Christmas eve, 2007 from a guy who asked me to join him in Chemicals trading.
In 2008, I got my first paycheck as a Junior Chemicals Trader (Aromatics), $4000/month. I was 29.
Got married at 30, cleaned out my bank account to pay for everything. Earning $4500/month.
At 33, after ex-wife had 2 miscarriages and my marriage fell apart, got divorced.
Cleared out my bank to pay for lawyers. I lost the car, I kept the house. I have to pay SGD 1,200/month for 36 months. On the day I signed the divorce papers, I had $86 left in my bank account.
At 34 I have moved to another company after the guy that brought me into the industry felt jaded and tired and left the industry totally at 55yrs old. Salary increased from $5500/month to $7500/month.
I am now 35, and I now make SGD 8250/month before bonus and my alimony payments will end in 10 months time.
I own the 3-room flat (bought $218k, current value $320k) I live in by myself. Divorced once, no kids. total of SGD 36k in savings only.
My current expenditure is:
$2000/month to mother for her allowance
$1200/month to ex-wife for alimony
$500/month for investment-insurance nonsense
$700/month for comprehensive life insurance/healthcare plan
$1000/month goes into CPF drain that I will never see
$500/month for internet/tv/power/phone
$500/month in taxi/bus/drinks with friends
--------
$6400/month in costs.
Balance $1850/month average, give or take $300 +/-
It all goes into savings. with bonus, and without going on holidays, I expect to save about $50k/year for the next 3-5 years.
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