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  #51 (permalink)  
Old 27-09-2011, 03:25 PM
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Since GDX didn't bounce back sufficiently, approximately 6% required, last night, the buy signal has been negated.

It doesn't mean that price will drop further. If you have bought, you may sell on the bounce back and we will have to wait for another chance.

GDX has dropped because gold was overbought and need some correction. The correction in gold also drag GDX along. The excessiveness has now just been almost worked off and then.......
i'm with you. you are making sense based on your TA. but fundamentally, the gold prices react differently when confronting recession.

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  #52 (permalink)  
Old 27-09-2011, 06:09 PM
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gold has obviously been a good trade over the last 5 years - i remember it being at $400/oz back in 05 or so and it has quadrupled since then. so no one can or should take that credit/foresight away from you.

but as another poster mentioned, part of this run up has been due to the instability of economies, with gold becoming a safe haven. my worry is that part of this has been speculative money, and with borrowing costs pretty low many people have been buying gold on margin.

if we are expecting another 2008 crisis, and it looks like that may be a better than 50-50 proposition right now, then potentially you could have another bout of deleveraging forced by this tightening of credit. and since GDX is an ETF wouldn't it be subject to the same deleveraging forces as well?

full disclosure: i am long gold as well so i hope i am wrong. but i think that it could be awhile before the fundamental story catches up to where gold and gold stocks may eventually fall to. i will probably offload some as well on further strength but i do think there is a longer-term investment thesis
The price of gold has risen more than gold stocks in the past 1 year. It is still true tracing 5 years back. At this high gold price, the profit growth potential is not reflected at all in many of these gold stocks which I see in near future a huge revaluation in gold miners to reflect this reality. From now onward, the risk is more at the side of gold than gold miners stocks. If gold price drops, the miners may at most drop the same percentage or even less, but when gold price stabilises or starts its new upleg, there is a good chance that these miners may finally play catch up (that means a huge upward price valuation).

Alot of stupid money, deleverage and buy US$ and bond but they are also very dangerous place to be. Safest is gold though the price may be volatile too. I don't think a credit crisis like 2008 will hit again. The current mini crash is probably a flash recession panic and general stock price may as well move up from here to new high. Even if there is deveraging, I think gold may be less affected this time than in 2008 simply because more people have come to the realisation of the nature of the crisis. If gold price can relain high or even go higher, GDX price will be resilient in the face of deleveraging even if there is one soon.

Volatility in gold is common, the last week drop is nothing if one knows that. It has a good run from 1500 to 1900 in a few months and it is a good time to take a rest before the next leg up soon.


Last edited by 1973; 27-09-2011 at 06:12 PM.
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  #53 (permalink)  
Old 27-09-2011, 06:39 PM
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TS dun take us for suckers lah, you think we cannot tell you are talking to yourself by writing all those fake “supporter” and “opponent” unregistered posts to bump up the thread?

Although you try to change the writing style, but your sentence and word use is give away. Seriously get a life.

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  #54 (permalink)  
Old 27-09-2011, 06:55 PM
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Originally Posted by 1973 View Post
The price of gold has risen more than gold stocks in the past 1 year. It is still true tracing 5 years back. At this high gold price, the profit growth potential is not reflected at all in many of these gold stocks which I see in near future a huge revaluation in gold miners to reflect this reality. From now onward, the risk is more at the side of gold than gold miners stocks. If gold price drops, the miners may at most drop the same percentage or even less, but when gold price stabilises or starts its new upleg, there is a good chance that these miners may finally play catch up (that means a huge upward price valuation).

Alot of stupid money, deleverage and buy US$ and bond but they are also very dangerous place to be. Safest is gold though the price may be volatile too. I don't think a credit crisis like 2008 will hit again. The current mini crash is probably a flash recession panic and general stock price may as well move up from here to new high. Even if there is deveraging, I think gold may be less affected this time than in 2008 simply because more people have come to the realisation of the nature of the crisis. If gold price can relain high or even go higher, GDX price will be resilient in the face of deleveraging even if there is one soon.

Volatility in gold is common, the last week drop is nothing if one knows that. It has a good run from 1500 to 1900 in a few months and it is a good time to take a rest before the next leg up soon.

Just want to add my point on the part about speculative money. Speculative money is what that are and will be causing all the volatility. Part of the reason for the last week huge correction in gold and silver was because many people made huge bet with margin. That is vulnerable. What happened was that both COMEX and exchange at Shanghai hike the margin for gold, silver and copper and these speculative margin bets have to liquidate.
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Old 28-09-2011, 12:45 PM
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Just want to add my point on the part about speculative money. Speculative money is what that are and will be causing all the volatility. Part of the reason for the last week huge correction in gold and silver was because many people made huge bet with margin. That is vulnerable. What happened was that both COMEX and exchange at Shanghai hike the margin for gold, silver and copper and these speculative margin bets have to liquidate.
Thanks but what you have commented is too "cheem" for a layman like me to comprehen. Only information that is value add is "when is the right time you are going to place your bet and when is the time you are going to withdraw" by just giving us a head up alert is good enough. The so call critic here will do their own study if they are interest to follow suit.
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  #56 (permalink)  
Old 28-09-2011, 12:51 PM
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Thanks but what you have commented is too "cheem" for a layman like me to comprehen. Only information that is value add is "when is the right time you are going to place your bet and when is the time you are going to withdraw" by just giving us a head up alert is good enough. The so call critic here will do their own study if they are interest to follow suit.
Excellent idea! Time to huat big big on gold.
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  #57 (permalink)  
Old 28-09-2011, 02:55 PM
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1800 resistance breaking soon! Suppport at 1580 - 1600 tested and proven...
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  #58 (permalink)  
Old 07-10-2011, 02:03 AM
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Taking the risk of jinxing it again....

The low should have been put in yesterday for GDX at price between 52-54. Actually, at one point, it was at 51. I continue to hold this one although I do not have a longer term bull market buy signal yet. It was negated by the huge fall the last few weeks. There is a possibility that market retest that level again.
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