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  #41 (permalink)  
Old 23-09-2011, 01:06 AM
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GDX gap down..$60 now..
Yes. I talked about an immediate rise after the signal and then a drawn down (1-8%) before the index takes off. I didn't write that the drawn down is between 1-8%. This happened in 1979 and 2005, both time, before the gold stocks took off. If the market don't crash further, this should be about it. However, the market is in a panic mode and thing can be overshoot, more than over done. If it becomes too bad, FED can always announce QE3.

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  #42 (permalink)  
Old 23-09-2011, 04:27 AM
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Yes. I talked about an immediate rise after the signal and then a drawn down (1-8%) before the index takes off. I didn't write that the drawn down is between 1-8%. This happened in 1979 and 2005, both time, before the gold stocks took off. If the market don't crash further, this should be about it. However, the market is in a panic mode and thing can be overshoot, more than over done. If it becomes too bad, FED can always announce QE3.
But when FED announces a QE3, it may trigger further sell down. Too much intoxication is bad for health. QE doesn't work anymore. In actual fact, it has never worked. Benanke is destroying lives with his bad experiments.

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  #43 (permalink)  
Old 23-09-2011, 10:11 AM
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Originally Posted by 1973 View Post
Yes. I talked about an immediate rise after the signal and then a drawn down (1-8%) before the index takes off. I didn't write that the drawn down is between 1-8%. This happened in 1979 and 2005, both time, before the gold stocks took off. If the market don't crash further, this should be about it. However, the market is in a panic mode and thing can be overshoot, more than over done. If it becomes too bad, FED can always announce QE3.
I am from the semicon industry. Based on past history, typically, our industry with face the 1st wave of downturn impact. After 6mth, the rest of the industries will follow suit.

FYI, this impact has already been observed since last mth. A couple of my vendor are receiving zero order.

In such context, I can't visualize how could your comment on 6mth time the share which you have recommanded can double up. Shouldn't it be plunging down instead due to the economic crisis?

Kindly give comment.

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  #44 (permalink)  
Old 23-09-2011, 10:29 AM
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Originally Posted by Unregistered View Post
I am from the semicon industry. Based on past history, typically, our industry with face the 1st wave of downturn impact. After 6mth, the rest of the industries will follow suit.

FYI, this impact has already been observed since last mth. A couple of my vendor are receiving zero order.

In such context, I can't visualize how could your comment on 6mth time the share which you have recommanded can double up. Shouldn't it be plunging down instead due to the economic crisis?

Kindly give comment.
Despite the huge gap down in the share price of GDX yesterday, the buy signal still hasn't sell. It is still in the buy signal if it can rise slightly, probably 0.75% today. If it continues to drop further today, then a sell signal will be generated and I will notify all of you. In fact, if the price rises slightly today to avoid a sell signal, it is a classical way these gold miners can launch its bull run (note that I am refering to gold miners, not other industries).

Regarding your comment about recession/weak economy, it is almost a certainty. For the fact, DOW theory has generated its sell signal 1-2 months ago. However, we are talking about gold miners here. As I have said, gold and silver prices have had a good run and their prices are high. This high price in gold and silver will translate to huge profit growth in these miners in the near future which hopefully will induce an appreciation in the share price. However, of course, if there is a credit crunch like what happened in 2008, then even these miners may not be spared but I think there is a low probability of that happening.

Last edited by 1973; 23-09-2011 at 10:32 AM.
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  #45 (permalink)  
Old 23-09-2011, 10:44 AM
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But when FED announces a QE3, it may trigger further sell down. Too much intoxication is bad for health. QE doesn't work anymore. In actual fact, it has never worked. Benanke is destroying lives with his bad experiments.
ALL the QEs and FED/government interventions are futile but they benefit gold/silver prices and that was how I made my money.
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  #46 (permalink)  
Old 27-09-2011, 09:22 AM
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Since GDX didn't bounce back sufficiently, approximately 6% required, last night, the buy signal has been negated.

It doesn't mean that price will drop further. If you have bought, you may sell on the bounce back and we will have to wait for another chance.

GDX has dropped because gold was overbought and need some correction. The correction in gold also drag GDX along. The excessiveness has now just been almost worked off and then.......
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  #47 (permalink)  
Old 27-09-2011, 09:42 AM
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Originally Posted by 1973 View Post
Since GDX didn't bounce back sufficiently, approximately 6% required, last night, the buy signal has been negated.

It doesn't mean that price will drop further. If you have bought, you may sell on the bounce back and we will have to wait for another chance.

GDX has dropped because gold was overbought and need some correction. The correction in gold also drag GDX along. The excessiveness has now just been almost worked off and then.......
Dude if you want to flaunt whatever crackpot theory you have on the markets, go to the CNA market talk forum there got a lot of uncles & aunties who play stock market all day to entertain you.

This is a jobs forum, people come here to ask and share job experience, not for you to advertise your stock guru skills…
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  #48 (permalink)  
Old 27-09-2011, 10:25 AM
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Dude if you want to flaunt whatever crackpot theory you have on the markets, go to the CNA market talk forum there got a lot of uncles & aunties who play stock market all day to entertain you.

This is a jobs forum, people come here to ask and share job experience, not for you to advertise your stock guru skills…
TS is responding to some of the other forumers request/question.

You talk as if you own this forum. If you are not interested in TS topic, pls skip this post. Nobody is pointing a gun at your head and force you to read this.

Pls check whether admin agree with you and can help you to ban this topic.
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  #49 (permalink)  
Old 27-09-2011, 10:33 AM
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This is a salary forum. I don't think there is anything wrong with 1973 on sharing his thought on how to made money.
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  #50 (permalink)  
Old 27-09-2011, 02:17 PM
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Originally Posted by 1973 View Post
Since GDX didn't bounce back sufficiently, approximately 6% required, last night, the buy signal has been negated.

It doesn't mean that price will drop further. If you have bought, you may sell on the bounce back and we will have to wait for another chance.

GDX has dropped because gold was overbought and need some correction. The correction in gold also drag GDX along. The excessiveness has now just been almost worked off and then.......
gold has obviously been a good trade over the last 5 years - i remember it being at $400/oz back in 05 or so and it has quadrupled since then. so no one can or should take that credit/foresight away from you.

but as another poster mentioned, part of this run up has been due to the instability of economies, with gold becoming a safe haven. my worry is that part of this has been speculative money, and with borrowing costs pretty low many people have been buying gold on margin.

if we are expecting another 2008 crisis, and it looks like that may be a better than 50-50 proposition right now, then potentially you could have another bout of deleveraging forced by this tightening of credit. and since GDX is an ETF wouldn't it be subject to the same deleveraging forces as well?

full disclosure: i am long gold as well so i hope i am wrong. but i think that it could be awhile before the fundamental story catches up to where gold and gold stocks may eventually fall to. i will probably offload some as well on further strength but i do think there is a longer-term investment thesis


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