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Old 25-05-2016, 04:27 PM
lazyplane lazyplane is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Unregistered View Post
Thanks lazyplane. I'm clueless about bonds, but it was a good read. What's your strategy?

AC
I have a few . but at present, i am staying clear of Mr. Market as i am really confused by the news and fundamental analysis.

Eg , at start of the 2016 year, it was Fed.. it was going to raise interest, etc as the market seems to have recovered. so i thought equities will going to go up. ie move cash to equities .. It was going to be boom time again baby !

But then came China bad data. everything came down. So the quick money is back to bonds/cash.. so was scouring for good bonds.

But instead of going down like a rock like Global Financial crisis (GFC) because there is really no good news coming out of the market with BREXIT , Brazil crisis, SG GDP dropping etc... all the markets seem to have bottom up y quickly and stabilise (despite the data coming out continuing to be bad) .

Why did it stabilised ? Honestly, ignoring those punting economist/market news generators , i feel it is really not clear.

If interest rate in SG any signal, you can see i/r in govt bonds is really low. What does this mean, it means lots of investors r holding on to cash . quick cash. If the market has really bottom up, this quick cash will go to equities.
And i believe that is a big big pool of cash that can be worth the ride.

Until now, i cant see the cash flowing clearing. Hence staying out of equity. Fundamentals are not helping so will also only play with very safe bonds.
3 yr bonds r too long. i think the lesson i learnt from GFC now the crisis are in very short waves. and the high / lows are also very short tenor. If the high come, it will come and be very high for 3 months to half year.. then it drops very suddenly...
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