In its steepest decline since its inception in 1975, the URA property price index plunged a hefty 14.1% in Q1 this year.

The URA property index tracks private home prices in Singapore.

The apparent recovery triggered by the strong sales of Alexis and Caspian condominiums in February was just a mirage.

As predicted by Salary.sg in October last year, the URA index has dropped more than 20% since it began easing 3 quarters back.

With the same technique used last year, I overlay the URA price index chart over the Straits Times Index graph (dark blue), adjust the scales of both graphs, and voila, this is what I get:



The peaks and bottoms of both graphs meet at the same levels, but property lags stocks by a few months.

It's not hard to see that property will drop further in the coming quarters.

References: URA news release of Q1 real estate statistics (April 24, 2009), Private home prices fall (ST, April 24, 2009)

http://www.salary.sg/2009/property-p...hed-see-graph/