Whether COE price will drop or not next year or the year after next is really dependent on the economy.

However the following are facts that we faced:

1. What we know is that many cars will reach their 10 years next year and the year after that. The thing is we don't know is whether LTA will recycle all the COEs at the same time or spread out them over a longer period. Meaning that they might inject only a controlled number of COEs each time, so end up, no bumper COE supply.

2. LTA has decreased the car population growth by 0.5% for 2014. For 2015, they are further reducing the growth to 0.25%.

3. Many people who are scrapping their cars will still be booking new or getting another used car. A small survey among my friends, colleagues and neighbors confirmed this. Some of my neighbors are already retired and they still say they need a car!

4. There is indeed a growing number of families owning 2 cars or more, simply because the parents are working longer and children entering the workforce. Last time, people will retire even before their children enter the workforce, now it seems common among families to have children and parents working.

Below is an extract from LTA website on their stance regarding the car population in Singapore.

"With 12 per cent of Singapore’s total land area already taken up by roads, there is limited scope for any further expansion of the road network. Priority for road growth will be given to serve new development areas and to facilitate bus movements to bring about a better public transport experience. The latter supports ongoing efforts to improve the quality and connectivity of our public transport network, which is set to undergo significant expansion over the next few years. Therefore, it is not tenable to keep to the same rates of vehicle population growth as before. Already, the number of vehicles on our roads is drawing near to one million.
In view of this, the Land Transport Authority (LTA) will lower the vehicle growth rate. From February 2015 to January 2018, the annual vehicle growth rate will be lowered from the current 0.5% to 0.25%. This will be reviewed again in 2017."