If a someone needs a car they will buy one regardless of COE, its just a matter of quantum. With so many options in the market I don't believe the theory of people just waiting on the sides used to taking public transport suddenly deciding to buy a car because of a 20K cost save. You will need a huge drop to the days where COE were priced at 20K to make that kind of impact, we talking about going back to the time where a swift can be purchased for 40 - 50K brand new.

For people needing a car now, they can buy New Conti, Jap, Korean. If too expensive can consider PI save 5 - 20K pending if conti or Asian, not to mention 2nd hand cars. Each option already allows them to save money as much money as their intended COE correction price.

I know about 5 - 8 people whose cars will scrap next year, all of them are looking to replace. Some replace with same model, others replace with Korean makes to save cost, one guy looking at PI car and another 2nd hand Jap car.

Its highly likely the COE at worse will go down by 15 - 20K maybe. Even at that price I doubt it will create a ripple big enough to sway the non car drivers to rush out and buy a car.