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Old 23-02-2009, 06:36 PM
Derek--
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Catching the bottom requires luck as well as analysis. I completely agree no one can predict the bottom exactly.

However, I also completely disagree that the bottom is here. Defintely not so for property, and not so for stocks as well.

My reasons: The macro economic environment. The stock market has tanked since its peak in Dec 07, many stocks look attractive now. However, I think that pricing the stocks based on performance over the last few years without factoring in the economic scenario the world is facing is risky. As for the property market, if we use the stock market as an indicator, it still has a long way to go.

PM Lee mentioned that discussion now has turned from V-shape or U-shape, to U-shape or L-shape. I don't know where he got his information from, so I won't accept it blindly.

However, the reality is that the engines that normally fuel economic growth in Singapore are currently stalling. i.e. Exports

Why not take a "wait and assess" approach for the next 6 months? I really can't see the whole world turning around by early next year, not with all the news that is available, either by local or foreign media.

Can you?
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