You have started a topic of intense debate. You will find people on both sides of the camp. Some think that prices will continue going up whereas others will tell you that housing prices will collapse.

1. You pointed out that housing prices have declined. You are probably referring to the URA PPI index. If you drill down into the numbers, you will realise that for 1Q12, the price decline is largely from the CCR region. The OCR and RCR regions actually went up. OCR is your common proxy for mass-market. Think: Watertown, Skyhabitat, Seletar Park Residences & Bedok Residences. Sound familiar? All $psf benchmarket breakers in their own right.

2. Prior to the ABSD, there was the SSD (16%,12%,8%,4%). This two combined has achieved two things: 1. Dampened resale/subsales. 2 Weed off foreigners. Nevertheless, the short fall from resale activity and foreign purchases have been offset by Singaporeans + PRs in the primary sales segment. Record Jan-Apr pre-sales numbers. Average 2,500 p/m versus 1,400 average in 2010/11.

Hmmm.. then you think hey maybe prices are not going to fall. Then you look at:

1. Greek elections coming up in June. Unemployment in Spain at 30%. EU is still fundamentally screwed.
2. Stock prices falling sharply. So if asset prices move together, what happens to property prices?
3. China is all that is bright but increasing signs that all is not as pretty as it seems.
4. Banks again appears to be headed for trouble. How many % of unemployment in SG relates to financial services? Sizeable.

Then you think.. are we approaching the edge of the cliff?

In 3Q2008, when things turn bad they turn bad rapidly..