i think that it is overly optimistic to believe that prices will not go down at least another 15 to 20% (does this not constitute a crash?)

golden period? singapore is officially in a recession. if i'm not wrong, we are the only developed economy to officially make that announcement. MM lee's statement was made a year ago, before the markets started to tumble. agree that the projects you mentioned will be positive for the country in the long run and will boost the economy, but this is more for the long term health of the country and will hardly spruce up demand for property (apart from making land even more scarce perhaps? but again...long term!)

i worry about how the removal of the deferred payment scheme is going to impact prices. we could have a falling knife. why? property prices have clearly been slowing and have already come off on a QoQ basis. IF prices come off further in 2009, those who bought their apts at the peak of the boom may witness a sharp fall in the value of their properties fall even as they have to return the remaining 80% of their mortgage payments. 3 issues from here:

1) with borrowing limits super tight, it will be extremely hard to borrow the money. additionally, are banks willing to lend out more money than the collateral that they will receive is worth (i.e. the condo which is now 30% cheaper)?

2) ok, if owners can't come up with the money, now what? they rush to sell their units. but no one is going to be buying because a) no loans available b) the guys who have the ability to pay higher % of cash are probably going to wait for further falls (and maybe their money is down the drain in the stock market anyway)

3) what about the new supply that is about to come out?

on a yoy basis, prices are still high. so, it is possible owners are going to begin letting go of their units soon.

by the way, i am bearish on the market...