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  #44 (permalink)  
Old 17-03-2012, 11:35 PM
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Originally Posted by Anonymous View Post
Haha, well you are speaking to a trained financial engineer so peddle your stuff somewhere else. I'm sure you like to think that your risks can be hedged away easily but seriously, there's no one MNCs like to axe more than an overpaid executive in his mid 40s, bearing in mind the widening gates and increasing pool of well educated grads/post-grads that will flood the markets here in the next 10-20 years. Sure, one can always fight to stay afloat, but default risk is greater than ever before, and will continue to increase. I seriously doubt contacts are the best bets in such cases. By 40s, you are too old and expensive to be rehired without a substantive paycut. Remember then, that while you are treading water, govt directors are leading easier lives without worry till retirement.

Govt risk free rate below inflation rate? are you sure? You seriously need to check your facts first. I hope this is not the kind of research you do in office otherwise you will get sacked. The annual increments in govt service for senior officers are definitely in excess of inflation, putting aside bonuses and promotional increments. And even that is an irrelevant point that you had brought up. Salaries don't grow perpetually and we are comparing steady states, ie assuming 2 persons maxing out at directorship. By then, their annual packages would have stabilised at a certain level (i.e. minimal growth) hence we are just comparing 2 bonds, one paying an annual coupon of 300k, the other im not sure, 500k? However the former is a treasury, 0 chance of default. We all love our junk bonds, but people still keep lots of treasuries for good reasons.

You also talk as though becoming an MP or sitting on a GLC board is easily within reach. Don't want to burst your bubble but pls don't get ahead of yourself. Certainly someone who expresses himself like you isn't exactly MP calibre. We all expect MPs to speak with humility don't we.
I realise that I did bark at the wrong tree, we need risk-averse people like you to be in civil service. Even armed with financial engineering, you are still convinced of your risk-free returns is better than risk-adjusted returns in MNCs. Looks like you should have studied masters of public adminstration.
Perhaps I should be thankful, we need people like you to maintain the current bureaucratic regime, while the bold, the entrepreneurial risk-taker conquer the world.

Talking about applying your financial engineering skills, perhaps you should solve this problem of default probability using gaussian copula function to model the risk of Nth to default (p/s : you need a super-computer to solve this, because there are thousands of reference entities, skewed stochastic vol curve, and since this is long-dated, forward interest rates are stochastic too!)
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