Salary.sg Forums - View Single Post - On Margin Call for Property
View Single Post
  #55 (permalink)  
Old 12-11-2011, 12:30 PM
scholar
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Unregistered View Post
Fundamental analysis is more an art than a science and hindsight is always perfect. The fear that today could be a repeat of 1996 which saw a drop of 30% in 5 years will always be countered by the fear that today could be a repeat of 1990 (HDB resale price index rose from 33.6 in Q1 1990 to 136.3 in Q4 1996, that's 400%).

Will HDB resale price quadruple again in 5 years? If you had asked anyone in 1990, most would have said that you were crazy, what with Saddam wrecking havoc on world economy.

I will not rule out that applicants rushing to buy DBSS flats include young professionals whose full-time work involves some sort of fundamental analysis. Why are they so kan cheong?

Business Times November 12, 2011 - More than 40% of Belvia units sold in first phase

CEL Development CEO Chia Lee Meng said that the larger four- and five-room units on the higher floors were the best sellers.
i disagree.

fundamental analysis is based on income ratios - if people cannot afford to pay for a flat with their income, then flat prices are constrained. and as hedgie has said, the fundamental ratios are alot higher today than they were in the past. hence, as one of the earlier posters have mentioned, fundamental analysis is a probability play and the probability of a 1996 situation is much much higher than a 1990 situation.
Reply With Quote