Should be around there.

Anyway there are a few obvious explanations for this (before we delve into the less common reasons)..

1. officer is performing above average at his current level but his CEP is not very high, so rate of promotion is still relatively slow. Remember it is not performance grade but CEP which actually determines how often HR flags an officer for promotion. It is usually correlated because CEP will usually be raised for consistent high performers, but it is not a given, i.e. it is possible to give many Bs in a row but not touch an officer's CEP at all.

2. centrally imposed (i.e. by HR) decrease in number of promotions in the high GEO grades because of top-heaviness across the service. This is not officially confirmed in any way by HR, but it is easy to notice if you've been around for most of last decade. Many GEO3s right now are way past overdue (by older standards) for promotion to GEO4 but will be kept waiting for some more time.