I see many dark clouds coming
- for 2010-2012, 18k+25k+25k=68k of BTO flats are released, and now couples up to 10k/mth salary can apply for one. This means these 80th percentile household who book at BTO flats will be locked out of private market for 5 years (at least til 2018) when they collect the keys.
- same goes for ECs - couple with earning power up to 12k/mth will be locked too from private property for 5 years.
- the differential pricing between
HDB and suburban condos are at it widest. Government is doing all its best to stabilize
HDB prices by releasing 50k supply BTO flats. The
HDB household who wish to upgrade to condos will see the
HDB +ve equity stabilizing, so sub-urban condo prices will not be raising anymore as most buyers are upgraders
- Government are controlling firms on hiring foreigners in the mid-level positions.
MoM said that the foreigners share will remain at 1/3 of the workforce. This means new foreigners intake will increase at the rate of Singapore national population.
- Current government policy of 40% downpayment of 2nd property has gradually locked up Singaporeans from buying more properties. A 1000 sq feet condo in non-central region already cost 1.2m, and coughing out half a million cash to buy one is not easy for a average Singapore household.
- Current interest rate at the lowest, unemployment at the lowest, and annual wage increase at its highest are supportive of current property prices. All these could change if the US and Europe structural soverign debt issues lead to world contagion. Singapore will not be spared.
If you are buying private property for investment rather than self-occupancy, be advised that you have holding power of at least the next 5 years, or be prepared for some potential shocks.