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09-06-2013, 07:26 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Unregistered
The window of opportunity is coming again both for stocks and property. Get ready to pounce.
Don't be saying later you should have bought this and that. You hear this all the time. It seems that people are fearful to act when economy tanking and good bargains abound. And then when economy rebounded, they can only whine and envy others who made killings.
For those interested in property, I suggest do homework on area / locality of interest now. Get the prices now so that you can see if the prices go down attractively enough to enter. I guess stocks easier to track.
Start by getting your war chest ready. FDs maturing soon? Single premium insurance maturing?
Remember that govt all over will try their best to prevent major meltdown, so the window of opportunity is likely to be narrow.
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I beg to differ. Actually, most politicians in the world will ruin everything. Most of them are lawyers and do not know anything about economics. What they have done and are doing are destructive for economy instead of being good to it. So...is really questionable to say that govs won't let the market crash. Europe has already crashed. 60% youth unemployment rate.
See what they have done and are doing.
1. High tax - this is deflationary because high tax sucked out capital from the economy that is the seed for future growth. Govs in the west are raising tax not for the good of the economy but to preserve their own power. thi is bad for businesses = bad for economy.
2. Europe just decided to charge a heavy levy protectionist tax on all solar panel from China. China retaliates by charging a levy tax on red wine from France. Protectionism is bad for global economy and yet these wayang show politicians are raising it for their own private interest. they are not even interested in creating jobs. Only solution they have is to tax, hunt down rich people and play politics that further harm the economy.
so...I will be preparing my war chest but the point is that property is not a good investment at any randomly chosen point of time. Investment is always about buying low and sell high. If you know lower price will be in offer in a few years time and if you can wait, then wait for awhile. This is not sour grape...in the mean time, one can short the stock market and make money while the market crash and come back to pick up good property that is much cheaper later.
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09-06-2013, 10:16 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Unregistered
I beg to differ. Actually, most politicians in the world will ruin everything. Most of them are lawyers and do not know anything about economics. What they have done and are doing are destructive for economy instead of being good to it. So...is really questionable to say that govs won't let the market crash. Europe has already crashed. 60% youth unemployment rate.
See what they have done and are doing.
1. High tax - this is deflationary because high tax sucked out capital from the economy that is the seed for future growth. Govs in the west are raising tax not for the good of the economy but to preserve their own power. thi is bad for businesses = bad for economy.
2. Europe just decided to charge a heavy levy protectionist tax on all solar panel from China. China retaliates by charging a levy tax on red wine from France. Protectionism is bad for global economy and yet these wayang show politicians are raising it for their own private interest. they are not even interested in creating jobs. Only solution they have is to tax, hunt down rich people and play politics that further harm the economy.
so...I will be preparing my war chest but the point is that property is not a good investment at any randomly chosen point of time. Investment is always about buying low and sell high. If you know lower price will be in offer in a few years time and if you can wait, then wait for awhile. This is not sour grape...in the mean time, one can short the stock market and make money while the market crash and come back to pick up good property that is much cheaper later.
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For the retail investor, what's the best way to short the stock market? Options?
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10-06-2013, 10:13 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Unregistered
For the retail investor, what's the best way to short the stock market? Options?
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There are short ETF.
But we are not very sure the market has already reached an absolute top. If it is not, it is very close. By 2015, it will definitely crash. Many emerging market stock markets like Thailand, Indonesia, singapore, Phillipine etc ..have just exhibit an inverted V shape top which is very rare. The top in NYSE, S&P etc...are more flat and may have a chance to grind sideway or even move slightly higher...but by 2015..is over.
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12-06-2013, 10:23 PM
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Many are optimistic that the house price will continue increase. However there are groups of peoples that pessimistic about that. And here are their analysis.
Bursting the bubble | Five Stars And a Moon
Quote:
Originally Posted by Unregistered
Thanks. I rather buy 3 condos in Singapore, paying all cash and no loan. Gives me peace of mind. Singapore condos, btw, is undervalued because of all the cooling measures. Other cities are overvalued and are bubbles because they don't have many cooling measures. Singapore property will definitely appreciate in the long run, even though prices may correct by 10 - 15% before rising further. There are many opportunities in Singapore depending on the locations. I avoid CCR properties as prices will not rise for a long time, better to focus the OCR growth regions and those condos near new MRT stations.
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13-06-2013, 07:55 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Unregistered
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Hey, STI now in negative territory, anyone got any hot tips? There are quite a number of pickings, but got limited money $50K. Which one to shoot for?
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13-06-2013, 10:27 AM
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I feel sorry to say to those who put a lot of money in property in Singapore. The fact that property price in Singapore are highly correlated to the up and down of stock market price.
Straits Times Index (STI) and PPI
Even when PPI is outperforming the STI, there is one reason behind the wheel: super low SIBOR interest rate!!!
Housing Stock and PPI
Unfortunately, when the economy is bad, the stock market is falling, the SIBOR is jumping up and the property price is sinking down the hole. Only if you invest in stock market you can quickly liquidate your investment, while property investor have to drive down the hill. Getting the people to buy your house within 1 week is impossible! One week is enough to make your investment burnt during market crash. You may get the rent return from property but rental yield is only 5% and in the stock dividend you may also get around almost the same result.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Unregistered
Hey, STI now in negative territory, anyone got any hot tips? There are quite a number of pickings, but got limited money $50K. Which one to shoot for?
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13-06-2013, 12:27 PM
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Now days where you can get 100% capital gain? Definitely not Singapore in the future. Housing price increase these recent years just a temporary, because Singapore interest rate has gone down to almost zero. But long term interest cut will cause the bubble to burst. Look at Japan, the house price already droppings at 5%-10% y-o-y basis after 2 years of zero interest rate. And Singapore is following the path soon.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Unregistered
Capital gains alone can boost your profit margin by hundreds of percent. It's not the rent, it's the upside of the selling price.
Then again, the price can move downwards. But it's been up up up. Only way is up.
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15-06-2013, 10:05 PM
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Different Strokes for Different Folks
Guess wife and I followed a different path. Both started out dirt poor (I mean son of a steel worker growing up in inner city tenements and daughter of West Va coal miner). We've both worked since we were 14 and moved into Fed gov't positions in mid-20s. Both scratched, clawed our way up and now both retired (I turned 62 yesterday; wife is 60). Don't let anybody tell you gov't work isn't hard..it is if you're motivated....I helo'ed out to aircraft carriers and wife and I both had multi-year work stints of 10-12 hour days. Not the norm prob but that's what we did. I retired and started a one man consulting biz after we moved to FLA from Wash DC. Commuted between Orlando/Wash DC weekly for 5 years and now consult part time from FLA. Wife's fed retirement is $59K/yr and mine is $61K/yr; I can get Soc Sec anytime now (early retirement would be $1,200/mo due to my consulting work). We own a lakefront home worth about $650K (even after the real estate debacle) owe $250K on it with a 4% fixed rate/30 yr mortgage (our ONLY debt). I still consult to the tune of about $90K-$120K/yr and we have retirement/brokerage account assets of about $1.2M (unrelated to our Fed defined pension plans). I count our situation INCREDIBLY fortunate having started out poor and chosen public service careers.
My chief concern now is setting up our only child (daughter) who is 32 year old biologist, going thru divorce with our only grandchild (5 years old). Not bragging as I fully realize many here could burn money to the tune of my net worth and never miss it.
You can get into the top % of the country's net worth bracket with hard work and frugality and its interesting how some friends and relatives then want to take advantage (not my daughter - she is wonderful); show up on your doorstep for extended stays and have their hand out for "loans" (yeah right). Its almost like they think we fell into a good situation and therefore have an obligation to bail them out of bad decisions. Kinda POs me but I do help when I think appropriate. A rather long rant but thought a different path to a comfortable retirement might be interesting to some
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16-06-2013, 09:58 AM
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It isnt often we get foreign posters to this forum much less one from the US of A. Thanks for your sharing. It is refreshing and certainly comforting to know that life's challenges we face here are typical of people almost everywhere.
Your impression that some people here could afford to burn money and not miss it could not be further from the truth. Yes the earning power may be high here, but so is the cost of living, especially on big ticket items like our housing and cars. Not sure if you are familiar with our tiny island city state. Well if you are not, you will be shocked off your pants (pardon the crude language) to know that your normal Japanese compact car, say the Toyota Camry costs US$150K here. Dont start me on the cost of a Merz. And buying a small (1000 sq ft) leasehold private apartment here could set you back by US$800K. For a typical salaried couple in Singapore, it would easily take a good 10 -15 yrs toiling for them to pay if off.
Yes we are all concerned (more accurately worried sick) how we are going to survive our retirement years. You see, unlike in the US of A where you guys have the soc. security, we dont have that. What we have is compulsory contribution (savings) to a government managed fund and whatever you contributed in your lifetime is what you will get upon retirement at age 55. The government will withhold some of this contribution till you reach 65 yrs old and pay you a monthly stipend till you pass on. If you dont contribute, you dont get nothing!
Personally, (at the risk of sounding cliche) I would rather be in a position to give than to be asking and receiving. So dont despise your kith and kin who approach you for your help. I am sure given the choice they would rather not.
Once again thanks for your sharing.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Unregistered
Guess wife and I followed a different path. Both started out dirt poor (I mean son of a steel worker growing up in inner city tenements and daughter of West Va coal miner). We've both worked since we were 14 and moved into Fed gov't positions in mid-20s. Both scratched, clawed our way up and now both retired (I turned 62 yesterday; wife is 60). Don't let anybody tell you gov't work isn't hard..it is if you're motivated....I helo'ed out to aircraft carriers and wife and I both had multi-year work stints of 10-12 hour days. Not the norm prob but that's what we did. I retired and started a one man consulting biz after we moved to FLA from Wash DC. Commuted between Orlando/Wash DC weekly for 5 years and now consult part time from FLA. Wife's fed retirement is $59K/yr and mine is $61K/yr; I can get Soc Sec anytime now (early retirement would be $1,200/mo due to my consulting work). We own a lakefront home worth about $650K (even after the real estate debacle) owe $250K on it with a 4% fixed rate/30 yr mortgage (our ONLY debt). I still consult to the tune of about $90K-$120K/yr and we have retirement/brokerage account assets of about $1.2M (unrelated to our Fed defined pension plans). I count our situation INCREDIBLY fortunate having started out poor and chosen public service careers.
My chief concern now is setting up our only child (daughter) who is 32 year old biologist, going thru divorce with our only grandchild (5 years old). Not bragging as I fully realize many here could burn money to the tune of my net worth and never miss it.
You can get into the top % of the country's net worth bracket with hard work and frugality and its interesting how some friends and relatives then want to take advantage (not my daughter - she is wonderful); show up on your doorstep for extended stays and have their hand out for "loans" (yeah right). Its almost like they think we fell into a good situation and therefore have an obligation to bail them out of bad decisions. Kinda POs me but I do help when I think appropriate. A rather long rant but thought a different path to a comfortable retirement might be interesting to some
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