Property Prices Have Crashed (see graph)

In its steepest decline since its inception in 1975, the URA property price index plunged a hefty 14.1% in Q1 this year.

The URA property index tracks private home prices in Singapore.

The apparent recovery triggered by the strong sales of Alexis and Caspian condominiums in February was just a mirage.

As predicted by Salary.sg in October last year, the URA index has dropped more than 20% since it began easing 3 quarters back.

With the same technique used last year, I overlay the URA price index chart over the Straits Times Index graph (dark blue), adjust the scales of both graphs, and voila, this is what I get:



The peaks and bottoms of both graphs meet at the same levels, but property lags stocks by a few months.

It's not hard to see that property will drop further in the coming quarters.

References: URA news release of Q1 real estate statistics (April 24, 2009), Private home prices fall (ST, April 24, 2009)

http://www.salary.sg/2009/property-p...hed-see-graph/

with exodus of foreigners, the likes of Alexis will now have to compete with hdb dbss projects for a share of the hdb-upgraders pie. but hdb seems smarter judging by its hugely successful dbss launches in recent weeks. the prices just seemed so "right" and irresistable to the upgrade-hungry heartlanders. now that these upgraders have been suckered into locking up their money, private condos will have less eligible heartlanders to target. price war starts.

Many Singaporeans are 'investing' in properties. And that includes the leaders. So, if the market slumps, everyone suffers.

One good way is to tell you the market is doing well to make you help them keep prices up while they throw stocks. And by the time you REALISE that the market is really shiit, they would have cleared their inventories and you will have to find your own way out with the 'red packets'.

Singapore properties are way overpriced. Just think, how can a property HERE cost you more than what you can get in other developed countries??? Its ridiculous. Simple logic tells you that its more bubble than value.

If you haven't noticed we are building accomodation to fit 6 million people. ASSuming these people really stay here, you'll probably be able to breakeven. Otherwise, if the country fails to attract the numbers, you can keep your other properties as warehouses.

From the same chart, we can see that the current plunge is nowhere near that of the 97/98 Asian Financial Crisis (or at least not yet??). With the current outlook, there seems to be nothing the property market can't weather pass. Just a (short) matter of time before things pick up, I say.

Asset deflation will take a long time.. there are a lot of factors to prop up the price or to start a very slow decline.. If the broader economy recovers faster then the u turn will be equally fast.. However i doubt we will see drop in the price below what the hdb is asking for.. Note that max income for hdb is 8k.. with this floor, a lot of the middle class or even young PMETs will be pushed into the condo class..

Thanks for the charting.. with STI moving and hovering aroud 2200... could you update you chart and made a well judged prediction? Thanks

Its now nearing end June, property prices have all gone up!

http://www.salary.sg/2009/property-p.../#comment-5049

[bjhchong]

I doubt it's sustainable. The retrenchment rate may seem to be slowing but I believe we are still not out of the woods leh... Correct?

Hello, I am considering to buy a property btw Q1 and Q2/2010. Do you think it will be a bad time? Already too late? Do you have any official website which gives history of number of transactions, rental prices? It’s not easy to find relevant information. Most of it are forum topics where fights btw bear and bull are never ending and without proper analysis. Any help would be very appreciated. Thanks

http://www.salary.sg/2009/property-p.../#comment-5113

[davidtan]

Originally Posted by nicholas-sg

Hello, I am considering to buy a property btw Q1 and Q2/2010. Do you think it will be a bad time? Already too late? Do you have any official website which gives history of number of transactions, rental prices? It’s not easy to find relevant information. Most of it are forum topics where fights btw bear and bull are never ending and without proper analysis. Any help would be very appreciated. Thanks

http://www.salary.sg/2009/property-p.../#comment-5113

Nicholas, have you tried the URA website? It releases quite detailed statistics every quarter at http://www.ura.gov.sg/pr/text/rest.html with the latest being http://www.ura.gov.sg/pr/text/2009/pr09-17.html

Price indexes and number of units in pipeline are listed in these reports.

For rental info, details down to PER CONDO DEVELOPMENT (!) are available here:
http://www.ura.gov.sg/realEstateWeb/...Controller.jpf

And for individual condo transacted prices, you can use this:
http://www.ura.gov.sg/realEstateWeb/...Controller.jpf

If you pay (I think $80 for 1 day's use), you can use their REALIS system at https://spring.ura.gov.sg/lad/ore/login/index.cfm , which gives even more details, eg which unit transacted (unit number is given!) at what price and whether buyer is local or foreigner.

Such is the power of Internet and e-government.