Property Prices Have Crashed (see graph)

[Nicholas]

Thanks for the fast reply.
I heard about URA from your past articles, but I didn't browse all their information (including the one where you have to pay $80). Thanks for sharing the links. What is your outlook for Q1-Q2/2009?

[davidtan]

admin wrote those articles, not me.

You mean Q3-Q4 2009? I think there will be a correction. Prices have gone up too much without much fundamental support.

Originally Posted by davidtan

admin wrote those articles, not me.

You mean Q3-Q4 2009? I think there will be a correction. Prices have gone up too much without much fundamental support.

I disagree with you. Most research houses are predicting a recovery, the latest one being Jones Lang LaSalle.

Originally Posted by analyst

I disagree with you. Most research houses are predicting a recovery, the latest one being Jones Lang LaSalle.

Research houses make a lot of predictions AND forget about them. Do you know how their hit rate? How accurate are they?

To make things transparent and to see their "track record" - if they have any to begin with - they should openly discuss and assess their PAST predictions, or someone else can do it (this is an idea for anyone with free time ).

Dear friends, prices HAVE already recovered, but what is not publicized widely are these facts:

(1) HDB resale prices are relatively unscathed and even show a little bit of uptrend.

(2) Condo prices, both high end ones and mass market ones, have declined.

(3) With (1) and (2), HDB upgraders decide to upgrade to condo living en masse, resulting in the recent price "spikes" observed by the property research firms.

My Theorem But (3) does not imply that property prices will go up across the board.

Further observations that confirm My Theorem:

(4) Mass market condos accounted for most of the sales transactions in the past 2 months.

(5) Many of the units sold are small units that cost less than $1m, as reported in the media.

My Prediction After the upgrading euphoria has waned, general property prices will continue their decline. For those looking for bigger units, it will be wise to wait for asking prices to come back down to a more reasonable level.

it’s July 2009 - and prices are still quite high - when is the expected crash?

From the graph, it’s already crashed. If you bought at the peak last year and sell now, you will make a loss. Prices are recovering from a low base.

HDB is a different story, as it has government’s invisible hand supporting it.

[sbsbus]

hi guys, currently holding a 2 bedder from d9 at abt 1700 psf.... should i sell it or hold ? please aadvise.

Originally Posted by Salary.sg

In its steepest decline since its inception in 1975, the URA property price index plunged a hefty 14.1% in Q1 this year.

The URA property index tracks private home prices in Singapore.

The apparent recovery triggered by the strong sales of Alexis and Caspian condominiums in February was just a mirage.

As predicted by Salary.sg in October last year, the URA index has dropped more than 20% since it began easing 3 quarters back.

With the same technique used last year, I overlay the URA price index chart over the Straits Times Index graph (dark blue), adjust the scales of both graphs, and voila, this is what I get:



The peaks and bottoms of both graphs meet at the same levels, but property lags stocks by a few months.

It's not hard to see that property will drop further in the coming quarters.

References: URA news release of Q1 real estate statistics (April 24, 2009), Private home prices fall (ST, April 24, 2009)

Property Prices Have Crashed (see graph) | Salary.sg - Your Salary in Singapore

Hi
May I know how you navigate to that graph on the URA website from the homepage? I couldn't find a way to view this info. Thank you!

[designez]

Check out this article:
BBC News - Ghost estates testify to Irish boom and bust

It makes you wonder: who is going to live in all those condos that are TOP in the next two years? How many expats, who can afford to rent those condos, did the IRs really bring in or are they mostly middle and low staff that rent HDBs?